Unprecedented stimulus by the Fed and other central banks made many traditional models useless,

If the insatiable demand for bonds has upended the models you use to value them, you’re not alone.

Just last month, researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York retooled a gauge of relative yields on Treasuries, casting aside three decades of data that incorporated estimates for market rates from professional forecasters. Priya Misra, the head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America Corp., says a risk metric she’s relied on hasn’t worked since March.

After unprecedented stimulus by the Fed and other central banks made many traditional models useless, investors and analysts alike are having to reshape their understanding of cheap and expensive as the global market for bonds balloons to $100 trillion. With the world’s biggest economies struggling to grow and inflation nowhere in sight, catchphrases such as “new neutral” and “no normal” are gaining currency to describe a reality where bonds are rallying the most in a decade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Related Posts

  • 71
    The world’s major currencies, which had traded in a relatively stable range, are now in motion -- buffeted by different regional growth and interest rates as well as a simmering brew of geopolitical tensions. Differences are particularly noticeable between the U.S. and Europe, and how far apart currencies in those…
    Tags: u.s, ecb, federal, reserve, bonds, global, yields, rates, bank, central
  • 67
    The US stock market gets all the attention, but the bond market is where the real fortunes are made. Chris Arnade, a former bond trader, describes the unsmiling, powerful markets that move companies and governments On Wall Street, nearly everybody trades either stocks or bonds. Stock traders are the smiling…
    Tags: bonds, fed, ecb, boe
  • 66
    Very low inflation poses a mounting threat to the economic stability of the eurozone. The rate of consumer price inflation has been below 1 per cent since October, and hence far below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of just below 2 per cent. This highlights the degree of weakness…
    Tags: inflation, ecb, demand, central, bank, economy, currency, fed
  • 65
    Who would have thought that six years after the global financial crisis, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup – ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR, and U-FX Int – of unconventional monetary policies? No central bank had considered any of these measures (zero interest rate policy,…
    Tags: economies, demand, central, bank, global, banks, market, inflation, fed, ecb
  • 63
    Here’s what to look for from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole,Wyoming, which runs Aug. 21-23. -- Yellen’s keynote: The highlight will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech Aug. 22 on labor markets at 10 a.m. New York time. She’ll probably reiterate the Fed’s view…
    Tags: fed, york, bank, u.s, market, ecb, head, global, stimulus, central