The Great Recession–Moving Ahead

“The Great Recession–Moving Ahead,” a Conference Sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance, Stockholm, Sweden

 

The Great Recession: Moving Ahead

The recession that began in the United States in December 2007 ended in June 2009. But the Great Recession is a near-worldwide phenomenon, with the consequences of which many advanced economies–among them Sweden–continue to struggle. Its depth and breadth appear to have changed the economic environment in many ways and to have left the road ahead unclear.

Today I will discuss three key aspects of the challenges policymakers face as they seek to move ahead. These are: (1) The impact of the Great Recession and the associated Global Financial Crisis on the growth of output, both in the short term and over the longer term. (2) The reform of the financial sector–in other words, how much progress have we made in creating a safer and more stable post-crisis financial environment? (3) The impact of the crisis on the conduct of monetary policy–in particular, how to balance the goals of achieving stable inflation and full employment while also taking into account the need to maintain financial stability. I will leave it to others to address the important challenges facing fiscal policymakers as they determine the appropriate roles and paths for fiscal policy at both the macro- and micro-levels.

To keep the focus sharp, I will deal primarily with the economy of the United States. But policymakers around the world confront related challenges and I will draw also on the post-crisis experiences of other economies. And I should make it clear that my comments today are mine alone and do not necessarily represent the views of other members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.1

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Argentina: Debt Default is a Solution, Not a Problem

Unless you just returned from holiday in some ultra-remote region lacking newspapers, television or internet access (is there such a place?), you are aware that the government of Argentina defaulted on its external debt on Wednesday. A New York federal court provided the immediate cause of the default with a ruling that rendered illegal an agreement reached between the Argentine government and creditors holding over 90% of the country’s external debt.

The principal litigant bringing the case against the government holds less than US$2 billion of the Argentine debt, which by comparison makes a tail wagging a dog seem a credible anatomical interaction. MNL Capital, never lent a cent to the Argentine government (nor to any other). It acquired its one-billion-plus Argentine bonds on the re-sale market, purchasing them at far below face value.

See more at: http://triplecrisis.com/debt-default-is-a-solution-not-a-problem/#sthash.JZ2jveGD.dpuf

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BIG MARKET NEWS WEEK 10 AUG – 16 AUG 2014

   China Sunday, August 10, 2014 03:30  
 

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
China  Sunday, August 10, 2014 03:30

 

 
CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jul)
Japan  

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

 

01:50

 
 
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar

Japan

Wednesday, August 13, 2014 01:50  
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2)Preliminar
 

United Kingdom

 

Wednesday, August 13, 2014 11:30  
GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
 

United Kingdom

 

Wednesday, August 13, 2014 11:30  
GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech
United States Wednesday, August 13, 2014 14:30  
USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
Germany Thursday, August 14, 2014 08:00  
EUR Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
Germany Thursday, August 14, 2014 08:00  
EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar
European Monetary Union Thursday, August 14, 2014 11:00  
EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
European Monetary Union Thursday, August 14, 2014 11:00  
EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
United Kingdom Friday, August 15, 2014 10:30  
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar
United Kingdom Friday, August 15, 2014 10:30  
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar

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       China Sunday, August 03, 2014 03:00     CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (Jul) Australia    Monday, August 04, 2014   03:30   AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Jun) United Kingdom   Monday, August 04, 2014     10:30     GBP PMI Construction (Jul)  Australia   Tuesday, August 05, 2014 03:30…
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       United States Monday, July 28, 2014 16:00     USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) United States    Tuesday, July 29, 2014   16:00     USD Consumer Confidence (Jul)       Germany     Wednesday, July 30, 2014   14:00       EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)…
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How A Site That Streams People Playing Video Games Became A Billion Dollar Business

The genesis of Twitch, one of the most popular gaming-related Websites and applications in the world, can be traced to a few informal meetings in the fall of 2010, including one with Gideon Yu.

The former chief financial officer of YouTube, who negotiated that site’s $1.65 billion sale to Google and parlayed some of his windfall into a 5% ownership stake in the San Francisco 49ers, came by Justin.tv’s offices — which by then had raised $8 million in venture capital and had begun to generate revenue by morphing from a site originally conceived to stream the life of co-founder Justin Kan into a platform where anyone can stream video.

According to Michael Seibel, another Justin.tv co-founder, Yu came in and gave the company the kick in the pants it needed.

“He came by and basically said, ‘You guys have got something, it’s making some money, but you haven’t really made anything of significant impact, so you can sit on your ass and make a salary and not run this like a startup, or you can build something real out,” Seibel said.

That meeting, coupled with other conversations like one Kan had with SAY Media’s Matt Sanchez, convinced the team to start a few skunkworks projects internally. Taken together, the discussions with Yu and Sanchez marked the start of a process that would eventually morph Justin.tv into two companies with two different missions — Twitch, a site consisting of video streams of people playing video games, and Socialcam, a mobile app for sharing video.

It also marked the beginning of Justin.tv co-founder Emmett Shear’s evolution from engineer to executive, an unlikely ascent that transformed Twitch into one of the most valuable video-streaming companies in the world. Now Twitch is among the companies on Google’s shopping list, being eyed for a reported price of around one billion dollars. (The company announced Tuesday that it would wind down Justin.tv’s operations in order to devote all of its resources to Twitch.)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mattlynley/how-a-site-that-streams-people-playing-video-games-became-a

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How One Whistleblower Turned the Tables on High-Frequency Traders

A once esoteric corner of the stock market —- “order types” —- has taken center stage the past few years in the debate about the health of the market, the role of high-speed traders in it and how stock exchanges interact with clients.

A big reason for the scrutiny: Order types in many ways stand at the boundary between exchanges and their trading clients. As such, they play a crucial role in how buy and sell orders are handled and can determine whether an order is successful or not.

But few realized how complicated, and how problematic, they had become until a former high-speed trader, Haim Bodek, decided to blow the whistle to regulators in 2011.

First, a quick primer. Order types are instructions traders use to tell an exchange how a buy or sell order should be handled by the exchange, such as whether the order should be executed immediately or wait until a stock reaches a certain price level. There are hundreds of variations of order types, and many have proliferated in recent years, adding to the market’s complexity.

http://blogs.wsj.com/

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Hedge Funds Run by Women Outperform Those Run by Men

This morning, the Wall Street Journal reported on funds that choose to tie their fates to the performance of companies led by women. Barclays’ Women in Leadership Total Return Index, which consists of American companies with a female CEO or whose proportion of female board members is at least 25 percent, is one of number of new funds that aims to capitalize on the finding that companies with female leaders tend to outperform those where women are relatively absent. (Amusingly and depressingly, even if Barclays were based in the U.S., it wouldn’t qualify for its own fund, due to its lack of female leaders.)

The female-favoring trend the Journal identified stems from research suggesting that companies run by women simply do better. For example, a 2011 reportfrom Catalyst, a nonprofit promoting women in business, found that over the course of five years, companies with women on their boards had average returns on equity of 15.3 percent, while those of companies without any female board members were 10.5 percent. (Return on equity is a figure that gives a sense of a company’s ability to generate profit from shareholders’ investments.)

But the benefits of investing in female-led financial endeavors go even further than the Journal has it: Hedge funds run by women tend to outperform other hedge funds. A report put out in early 2013 by the accounting firm Rothstein Kass indicated that between January 2012 and September 2012, an index of 67 hedge funds owned or managed by women had a return of 8.95 percent—significantly more than the 2.69 percent return generated by an index “designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe.” (The 67 funds were chosen because they reported their monthly performance to HedgeFund.net or the Hedge Fund Research Database.) The impacts of these outsized gains, however, largely remain to be felt, as there are only about 125 female-run hedge funds in the world, according to Reuters.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/hedge-funds-run-by-women-outperform-other-hedge-funds/375542/

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Top One Percent Has One Third of China’s Wealth

 A recent academic report on wealth inequality in China shows that the top one percent of households holds one-third of total assets, while the bottom fourth holds only one percent.

The report, published by a research institute in Peking University, says the Gini coefficient, better known for its application in income distributions, shows that the gap in wealth between households in the country has considerably widened. The Gini coefficient has increased from 0.45 in 1995 to 0.73 in 2013.

A Gini coefficient of 0 would mean that every household has the same amount of property, while a coefficient of 1 would indicate that all wealth is owned by one household.

These statistics, provided in the Institute of Social Science Survey’s 2014 China Welfare Development Report, are not out of the ordinary by global standards. But they mark a dramatic change from the situation as recently as 2000, when China had the second most equal distribution of wealth in the world according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research.

The lead author of the report, Institute director Xie Yu, said in an interview with Caixin that wealth inequality in China is relatively high, but hasn’t passed a level where it would be likely to cause social instability. Excerpts of that interview follow.

Caixin: Is the Gini coefficient for wealth inequality like the Gini for income inequality, which has an internationally accepted “warning line” that shouldn’t be crossed? Will the current level of wealth inequality have an impact on China’s social development?

Xie Yu: I don’t agree with this view. The so-called “warning line” doesn’t exist, in either wealth inequality or income inequality.

Actually, the public is still tolerant of growing wealth inequality, as long as wealth is amassed legitimately. We place more emphasis on the reasonableness and legality of the way someone gets rich than on how much money they have. What Deng Xiaoping’s famous pronouncement – “Let some people get rich first” – really means is that “you can be rich, and I can also be rich.”

But on the other hand, relatively poor people in countries like the United States don’t have too much to worry about, because their health care and pensions are guaranteed by society. In China, where those costs aren’t provided for as well, poor people without property as a safety net are more anxious.

In addition, the vast majority of rich people in the U.S. donate a portion of their wealth to charity, but wealthy Chinese people still donate very little. In this and other ways, private property can help provide for the needs of public goods.

Why do you think Chinese people are willing to accept wealth inequality?

In my 2010 article Understanding China’s Inequality I argued that inequality is unlikely to lead to political and social instability for three reasons.

First, China’s inequality is manifested more through a collective form as a group compared with another group rather than individuals against individuals. That means the hard feelings about inequality are softened by the sense of belonging to a group.

The second reason is ideological. Despite the strong moral appeal of equality in China, the country’s traditional culture is relatively tolerant of inequality. But I think that most people tolerate inequality only when they can advance to a higher class of social status through their own efforts.

Third, some Chinese people believe that economic development itself may lead to inequality. We want to develop and improve people’s lives, and it is difficult to avoid inequality in the process. Thus some of the people dissatisfied by inequality grudgingly accept it.

These three factors mean that the problem of inequality in contemporary China is unlikely to lead to social instability. And I think that Chinese society also has certain mechanisms, such as politics, culture, public opinion, family, social relationships, etc., to regulate the social harm that inequality does cause.

What is the influence of wealth inequality on the solidification of social classes?

There will be some impact. The higher the wealth gap, the higher the possibility that classes will solidify in place, because the current generation’s wealth can be transferred to the next generation. If a child of rich parents doesn’t live up to expectations in school, the parents can let the child inherit their company.

What is distinctive about property inequality in China, as compared to the rest of the world?

China’s income inequality is relatively high, and its wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini index, is greater than its income inequality. The U.S.’ income inequality index is lower than China’s, but its wealth inequality is higher – Its Gini coefficient for household wealth was 0.8, compared with China’s 0.73.

This is because the United States has a relatively mature market economy, where wealth has been accumulated slowly through income and investment. Many in China, however, own homes allocated to them by the government. As those homes’ value increased, so did their wealth. That means wealth is less related to income in China than in the U.S.

So compared with the United States, is more of China’s wealth in real estate?

Yes. This is also why some rich Chinese people don’t feel rich: their property is mainly in real estate, and their income isn’t high enough to buy the same kind of house again. Many wealthy Chinese people are rich simply as a result of luck. A bus driver, for example, can claim to be wealthy because he has been allocated a home even though his income is low.

Source : http://english.caixin.com/2014-08-04/100712733.html

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Why Currencies Are Poised for More Shifts

The world’s major currencies, which had traded in a relatively stable range, are now in motion — buffeted by different regional growth and interest rates as well as a simmering brew of geopolitical tensions.

Differences are particularly noticeable between the U.S. and Europe, and how far apart currencies in those regions move will be a function of monetary policy at the European Central Bank (while the ECBmeets this week, its major policy actions are likely to come in autumn).

Last week’s economic data confirmed that the euro area and the U.S. are on quite different growth trajectories. Their banking systems are also in different stages of healing. The U.S. is growing faster and mending more quickly, so we should expect a widening diversion in monetary policies. Look for a gradually less accommodating Federal Reserve while the ECB seeks to further loosen its monetary and credit policies. In short, the dollar should continue to appreciate against the euro.

Geopolitical factors also favor a stronger dollar, largely because Europe is more economically and financially exposed to developments in Ukraine and the Middle East than the U.S. Moreover, the euro once enjoyed support from global traders chasing yields on peripheral euro-zone bonds — but there is less capital at work in that realm now.

Read more here : http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-08-04/why-currencies-are-poised-for-more-shifts

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BIG MARKET NEWS WEEK 3 Aug – 9 AUG 2014

   China Sunday, August 03, 2014 03:00  
 

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI (Jul)
Australia

 

 Monday, August 04, 2014  

03:30

 
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Jun)

United Kingdom

 

Monday, August 04, 2014

 

 

10:30

 
 
GBP PMI Construction (Jul)
 Australia

 

Tuesday, August 05, 2014 03:30  
AUD Trade Balance (Jun)
 

Australia

 

Tuesday, August 05, 2014 06:30  
AUD     RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug 5)

 

 

 United States Tuesday, August 05, 2014 16:00  
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
 

New Zealand

Wednesday, August 06, 2014 00:45  
NZD Labour cost index (QoQ) (Q2)
 New Zealand Wednesday, August 06, 2014 00:45  
NZD Unemployment Rate (Q2)
United Kingdom Wednesday, August 06, 2014 10:30  
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)
United States Wednesday, August 06, 2014 14:30  
USD Trade Balance (Jun)
Australia Thursday, August 07, 2014 03:30  
AUD Private Capital Expenditure (Q1)
Australia Thursday, August 07, 2014 03:30    

AUD   Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jul)
United Kingdom Thursday, August 07, 2014 13:00  
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision
United Kingdom Thursday, August 07, 2014 13:00  
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Aug)
European Monetary Union Thursday, August 07, 2014 13:45    

EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Aug 7)
European Monetary Union Thursday, August 07, 2014 14:30    

EUR     ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
Canada Thursday, August 07, 2014 16:00  
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Jul)
Australia Friday, August 08, 2014 03:30    

AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
 Japan Friday, August 08, 2014 n/a  
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
 China Friday, August 08, 2014 04:00  
CNY Trade Balance (Jul)
 Japan Friday, August 08, 2014 n/a  
JPY BoJ Press Conference
 Canada Friday, August 08, 2014 14:30  
CAD Net Change in Employment (Jul)
Canada Friday, August 08, 2014 14:30  
CAD Unemployment Rate (Jul)

 

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    Australia Monday, Febr. 9, 2015 01:15 AUD     RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech Australia Tuesday, Febr. 10, 2015 01:30 AUD     National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (Jan) China Tuesday, Febr. 10, 2015 02:30 CNY       Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jan) China Tuesday, Febr. 10, 2015 02:30…
    Tags: thursday, united, australia, aud, calendar
  • 76
       China Sunday, August 10, 2014 03:30     CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul) China  Sunday, August 10, 2014 03:30     CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jul) Japan   Wednesday, August 13, 2014   01:50     JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar Japan Wednesday, August 13, 2014 01:50…
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How Do You Solve A Problem Like Marissa?

There’s been a sharp response to the post I wrote last Wednesday in Forbes outlining the rationale for either Alibaba or SoftBank buying Yahoo at current levels.

The stock is up 6.5% since that story first was published on heavy volume.

To me, the strong response by investors to the story suggests one thing to me loud and clear: investors would rather get all of the cash coming back to Yahoo from the pending Alibaba IPO as well as what’s already on the balance sheet, rather than see CEO Marissa Mayer and her management team spend it on value-destroying acquisitions.

Mayer has been CEO at Yahoo for two years now.  She was absolutely dealt a tough hand, which I think any other CEO, whether Ross Levinsohn or anyone else, would have been challenged to turn around.  In fact, I spoke out in her defense early on after her hiring, asking several critics to give her more time to work at her turnaround.  Two years after her hiring, however, I think it’s fair to point out that she has made a number of costly and largely self-inflicted errors since taking over.

These include:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2014/07/29/how-do-you-solve-a-problem-like-marissa/

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