BIG MARKET NEWS WEEK 02 Nov – 08 Nov 2014

Australia Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 01:30
AUD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)
China Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 02:45  

CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
United Kingdom Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 10:30
GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
United States Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 16:00
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Canada Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 18:50
CAD BoC Governor Poloz Speech
Australia Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Sep)
Australia Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 01:30
AUD Trade Balance (Sep)
Australia Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 04:30
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australia Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 04:30
AUD RBA Rate Statement
Spain Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 09:00
EUR Unemployment Change (Oct)
United Kingdom Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 10:30
GBP PMI Construction (Oct)
United States Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 14:30
USD Trade Balance (Sep)
Canada Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 14:30
CAD  International Merchandise Trade (Sep)
New Zealand Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 22:45
NZD Labour cost index (YoY) (Q3)
United States Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 16:00
USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep)
New Zealand Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 22:45
NZD Employment Change (Q3)
Japan Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 03:30
JPY  Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech
United Kingdom Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 10:30
GBP Markit Services PMI (Oct)
United States Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 14:15
USD ADP Employment Change (Oct)
United States Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2014 16:00
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Australia Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 01:30
AUD Employment Change s.a. (Oct)
Australia Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 01:30
AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Oct)
United KIngdom Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 10:30
GBP  Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep)
United KIngdom Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 13:00
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov 6)
United KIngdom Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 13:00
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Nov)
European Monetary Union Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 13:45
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Nov 6)
European Monetary Union Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 14:30
EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
Canada Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 14:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Sep)
United States Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 14:30
USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 25)
Canada Thursday, Nov. 6, 2014 16:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a (Oct)
Australia Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 01:30
AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Canada Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 14:30
CAD Participation rate (Oct)
Canada Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 14:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (Oct)
United States Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 14:30
USD Unemployment Rate (Oct)
United States Friday, Nov. 7, 2014 14:30
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)

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Secular stagnation: the scary theory that’s taking economics by storm

Until the summer of 2013, positively nobody was talking about “secular stagnation.” But over the past year or so, interest in the subject has boomed to the extent that we already have economics writers complaining that other writers are misusing the term and scholars making formal models to show how it’s possible. Google Trends shows that discourse around the idea is surging.

What is secular stagnation?

Would the Depression have ended without the war? (Ingfbruno)

Would the Depression have ended without the war? (Ingfbruno)

For starters, it has nothing to do with secular versus religious. Instead, the term comes to us from a 1939 presentation given by Alvin Hansen titled “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth.” In these tailing days of the Great Depression, Hansen was trying to draw a contrast between a cyclical period of slow growth and a structural transformation of the economy. Hansen believed that the world was not experiencing a down period during an up-and-down series of fluctuations. Instead, he said, “we are passing, so to speak, over a divide which separates the great era of growth and expansion of the nineteenth century” from a new era of much slower growth.

The Depression, in other words, was not a passing phenomenon but rather something that might last indefinitely. Instead what happened is that Nazi Germany launched a war that ended up intersecting with an already-ongoing military conflict between Japan and China. This battle lasted for years and involved nearly the entire planet. During its course, global output surged — though production was mostly dedicated to killing people and blowing things up rather than increasing living standards. But after the war, the economies of Western Europe and North America boomed. Secular stagnation was largely forgotten. But with growth consistently disappointing in recent years, interest in Hansen’s ideas has rebounded.

Importantly, although the rapid return of growth led to a collapse of interest in the secular stagnation hypothesis it didn’t exactly debunk it. Hansen’s argument was that the American economy lacked the kind of self-correcting forces that would restore an adequate level of demand and end the Depression. The outbreak of a giant world war is definitely not the same thing as an economy self-correcting — it was an enormous external source of stimulus.

Why are people talking about secular stagnation now?

http://www.vox.com/2014/10/28/7078167/secular-stagnation

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