U.S. stocks climbed a wall of worry in 2014 underpinned by a host of nettlesome concerns at home and abroad.
While Wall Street’s brightest are somewhat subdued but still upbeat on the outlook for 2015, investors should always be aware of the risks that lie beneath the surface.
Not all of them rise to the “black-swan” level, which describes the most unexpected events. Gray swans are occurrences that aren’t wholly unpredictable, but are insidiously laying in plain sight. Gray swans can be equally as problematic as Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s highly improbable “Black Swan”. In 2014,the outbreak of Ebola, classified to us as a gray-swan event, especially since the deadly virus isn’t new and this isn’t the first Ebola outbreak, though it was the first to reach U.S. shores.
Here’s a collection of MarketWatch’s own “gray swans” to watch out for in 2015.
- 69Forex: 10 Events to Watch Next Week In order of release 1. UK Consumer Price Index (Aug 19) 2. New Zealand Dairy Auction (Aug 19) 3. RBA Semi-Annual Testimony (Aug 19) 4. Bank of England Minutes (Aug 20) 5. FOMC Minutes (Aug 20) 6. HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Aug Flash…
- 67One of my favorite pastimes is dissecting accepted Wall Street wisdom to see if it contains any value for investors or traders. Often, upon examination, the widely held beliefs turn out to be closer to magical thinking than financial acumen. One of the more recent examples is the way some…