Category Archives: Trading

Trading, USA

U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast; Jobless Rate Falls

Payrolls in the U.S. rose less than projected in January as retailers cut back after the holidays and government hiring fell. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.6 percent.

The 113,000 gain in employment,  NFP followed a 75,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a 180,000 advance. The unemployment rate  , NFP dropped to the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force.

http://www.bloomberg.com

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  • January 2014 employment report alias NFP
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    Tags: labor, employment, nfp, payrolls, month, january, unemployment
  • Australian Unemployment Jumps to 10-Year High; Aussie Drops
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    Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in more than 10 years in January, spurring traders to pare bets on an interest-rate increase and sending the Aussie to its biggest drop in almost three weeks. The jobless rate rose to 6 percent from 5.8 percent, the statistics bureau said…
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  • What To Expect From NFP?
    40
      The following are the expectations for today's US December jobs reports as provided by the economists at 15 major banks. Goldman: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 230k Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.7%. Deutsche: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 200k Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.7%. Morgan Stanley: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 240k Unemployment…
    Tags: unemployment, rate, payrolls, employment, nfp
  • Payrolls in U.S. - #NFP Rose 192,000 in March, Unemployment at 6.7%
    38
    Employers in the U.S. boosted payrolls and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent even as more Americans entered the labor force, showing steady progress that will prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to continue reducing stimulus while keeping interest rates low. Payrolls rose 192,000 last month after a 197,000 gain…
    Tags: gain, payrolls, labor, employment, rose, unemployment, u.s, january, bloomberg, survey
  • Planning before US Unemployment
    31
    The Labor Department reports on the number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits last week. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Thursday. APPLICATIONS MAY STAY LOW: Economists forecast that the number of people seeking benefits will dip 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, according…
    Tags: unemployment, survey, level, forecast, figures, u.s, labor, department, economists, employment
FED, Trading, USA

When will FED rise the funds rate ?

Before the weak employent report of the 10 Jan 2014, traders expected the fed funds rate to average 0.45% in June 2015. That estimate is based on price movements in the June 2015 fed funds futures contract. Put another way, traders saw a high probability that the Fed would start a rate hike campaign by mid-2015. Now the expected fed funds rate in June 2015 is 0.265%, meaning a low probability of a Fed rate hike by then. This is an especially dramatic shift from last September, when the expected fed funds rate in June 2015 was 0.92%, which meant futures traders thought the Fed would already be a few rounds into a rate hike campaign by mid-2015.

Remember FED officials have been hammering home the message that “tapering isn’t tightening.” 

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  • The Feds revised their interest rate forecasts
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  • #Yellen Suggests Roughly 6 Month Gap Before #Rate Increases After Bond-Buying Program Ends
    52
    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday said interest-rate increases could begin in the first half of 2015, around six months after it winds down its bond-buying program. The Fed, in its policy statement, said the benchmark federal-funds rate will remain near zero for a "considerable time" after its signature…
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Trading, USA

Friday 07-feb-14 watching

US debt limit deadline

The debt limit – the maximum amount of debt the federal government can issue to the public and other federal agencies – was suspended on 17 October 2013 until 7 February 2014, as a short-term fix to the debt ceiling crisis in October.

On 8 February 2014, the limit will be reset at the level of debt at that date. The latest figure for the amount of debt subject to the limit is USD17.3trn.

US January Employment Report (13:30 GMT)

Get involved in the most intense market events. As such, I think you should know that U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected tomorrow,Friday, January 8, at 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared.

Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further.

Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication.

Consensus is 185K

 

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  • What is debt-ceiling ?
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  • German judges refer ECB's bond-buying to European Court
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    Germany's Constitutional Court will refer a complaint against the European Central Bank's flagship "unlimited"  bond-buying plan to the European Court, removing the prospect of it curbing the program. The court said on Friday there was good reason to think the scheme "exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus…
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  • The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman
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    Submitted by James Stafford via OilPrice.com, With all the conspiracy theories surrounding OPEC’s November decision not cut production, is it really not just a case of simple economics? The U.S. shale boom has seen huge hype but the numbers speak for themselves and such overflowing optimism may have been unwarranted.…
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Trading, USA

What is debt-ceiling ?

Picking the best debt-ceiling explainer is a very subjective task. Do you like charts? Then you’ll probably like to have the debt ceiling explained in one chart.  Do you like movies? This one will explain the debt ceiling in 90 seconds.  Do you like cheese from Denmark? Then you will probably like the country’s lessons on how to do debt ceilings.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/02/06/debt-ceiling-explainers-explained/

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  • Don’t Lump All Emerging Markets in Together
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  • House Republicans Move Toward Debt-Ceiling Vote
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    The House could vote as early as Wednesday on legislation to raise the country’s borrowing limit, after Republicans met on Monday night in their latest effort to find elusive consensus on one of the final must-pass objectives before Washington goes into election mode. Read more: Debt Ceiling: House Republicans Eye Wednesday…
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  • U.S. Treasury likely to run out of funds Feb. 27
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    U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew urged Congress Friday to increase the debt ceiling, saying he is not confident extraordinary measures will last beyond Feb. 27. In a letter addressed to House Speaker John Boehner, Lew highlighted that the Treasury must start implementing "extraordinary measures" to continue to pay the nation's…
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  • What Alan Greenspan Has Learned Since 2008
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Trading

Citi’s European spot forex head trader Ramchandani out amid probe

Citigroup’s head of European spot foreign exchange trading, Rohan Ramchandani, has left the global bank, a spokesperson told Reuters on Friday.

“He is no longer with Citi,” bank spokeswoman Danielle Romero-Apsilos told Reuters.

Asked if Ramchandani, who has been based in London, had been fired amid a global investigation into possible manipulation of currency markets, Romero-Apsilos declined further comment.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/10/us-forex-citi-probe-idUSBREA0916I20140110

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  • Russia invades Ukraine: beware of a risk off weekly opening
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  • Deutsche Bank Is Said to Fire 3 Currency Traders in New York
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Trading

Apple Repurchases $14 Billion of Own Shares in Two Weeks

Mr. Cook said Apple was “surprised” by the 8% decline in its shares on Jan. 28, the day after it reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might decline from the same period a year ago. Mr. Cook said he wanted to be “aggressive” and “opportunistic.”

With the latest purchases, Mr. Cook said Apple had bought back more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months, which Mr. Cook said was a record for any company over a similar span.

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  • Why is America’s largest cable TV company buying its biggest rival for $44 billion?
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Trading

Fed’s monetary stimulus turned to high ?

Prior to the Fed’s monetary stimulus at the start of financial crisis in 2008, the Fed held around $900 billion assets. Today the Fed’s assets are $4.1 trillion and rising, but at a tapering pace.

Fed monetary stimulus

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ECB, Europe, Trading

ECB Webcast of the press conference 6 February 2014

Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 6 February 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET:

  • Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB.
  • Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, and to Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB.

 

Watch it here :: ECB Webcast of the press conference 6 February 2014

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  • Webcast of the ECB press conference 6 March 2014
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Trading

BANK OF GHANA RAISES BENCHMARK RATE BY 200BPS TO 18%

Rate Hike

When we wait for ECB and BOE we get this news :

BANK OF GHANA RAISES BENCHMARK RATE BY 200BPS TO 18%

 

 

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Trading

How The Economic Machine Works,

Video

Take a look at “How The Economic Machine Works,” an introduction to the economic system by Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates.

In the video, the Bridgewater Associates founder stresses three rules of thumb he’d like you to remember:

1) Don’t have debt rise faster than income

2) Don’t have income rise faster than productivity

3) Do all that you can to raise your productivity

 

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