Category Archives: USA

USA

U.S. Treasury likely to run out of funds Feb. 27

U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew urged Congress Friday to increase the debt ceiling, saying he is not confident extraordinary measures will last beyond Feb. 27.

In a letter addressed to House Speaker John Boehner, Lew highlighted that the Treasury must start implementing “extraordinary measures” to continue to pay the nation’s bills because Congress has not acted to approve its normal borrowing authority.

Mr Lew said he could rely on emergency measures to pay US debts after the limit is reinstated on 7 February.

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  • House Republicans Move Toward Debt-Ceiling Vote
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  • The US debt level of over $17.9 trillion would take more than 398 million years to pay off.
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    October 22, 2014 Santiago, Chile The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number—$18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? It’s such an abstract number that it’s hard to imagine it. Can you genuinely understand it beyond just…
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Trading, USA

U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast; Jobless Rate Falls

Payrolls in the U.S. rose less than projected in January as retailers cut back after the holidays and government hiring fell. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.6 percent.

The 113,000 gain in employment,  NFP followed a 75,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey called for a 180,000 advance. The unemployment rate  , NFP dropped to the lowest level since October 2008 even as more Americans entered the labor force.

http://www.bloomberg.com

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    Tags: labor, employment, nfp, payrolls, month, january, unemployment
  • Australian Unemployment Jumps to 10-Year High; Aussie Drops
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    Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to the highest level in more than 10 years in January, spurring traders to pare bets on an interest-rate increase and sending the Aussie to its biggest drop in almost three weeks. The jobless rate rose to 6 percent from 5.8 percent, the statistics bureau said…
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      The following are the expectations for today's US December jobs reports as provided by the economists at 15 major banks. Goldman: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 230k Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.7%. Deutsche: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 200k Unemployment Rate (Dec): 5.7%. Morgan Stanley: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec): 240k Unemployment…
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  • Payrolls in U.S. - #NFP Rose 192,000 in March, Unemployment at 6.7%
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    Employers in the U.S. boosted payrolls and the unemployment rate held at 6.7 percent even as more Americans entered the labor force, showing steady progress that will prompt Federal Reserve policy makers to continue reducing stimulus while keeping interest rates low. Payrolls rose 192,000 last month after a 197,000 gain…
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  • Planning before US Unemployment
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    The Labor Department reports on the number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits last week. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time Thursday. APPLICATIONS MAY STAY LOW: Economists forecast that the number of people seeking benefits will dip 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, according…
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FED, Trading, USA

When will FED rise the funds rate ?

Before the weak employent report of the 10 Jan 2014, traders expected the fed funds rate to average 0.45% in June 2015. That estimate is based on price movements in the June 2015 fed funds futures contract. Put another way, traders saw a high probability that the Fed would start a rate hike campaign by mid-2015. Now the expected fed funds rate in June 2015 is 0.265%, meaning a low probability of a Fed rate hike by then. This is an especially dramatic shift from last September, when the expected fed funds rate in June 2015 was 0.92%, which meant futures traders thought the Fed would already be a few rounds into a rate hike campaign by mid-2015.

Remember FED officials have been hammering home the message that “tapering isn’t tightening.” 

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  • The Feds revised their interest rate forecasts
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    The Feds revised their interest rate forecasts late last month hoping to normalize them faster than many market watchers would have anticipated. The new forecasts are higher, the projections having being raised for 2015-2016. This is a good move for extremely low rates can negatively affect the job hunt and…
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  • #Yellen Suggests Roughly 6 Month Gap Before #Rate Increases After Bond-Buying Program Ends
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    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday said interest-rate increases could begin in the first half of 2015, around six months after it winds down its bond-buying program. The Fed, in its policy statement, said the benchmark federal-funds rate will remain near zero for a "considerable time" after its signature…
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Trading, USA

Friday 07-feb-14 watching

US debt limit deadline

The debt limit – the maximum amount of debt the federal government can issue to the public and other federal agencies – was suspended on 17 October 2013 until 7 February 2014, as a short-term fix to the debt ceiling crisis in October.

On 8 February 2014, the limit will be reset at the level of debt at that date. The latest figure for the amount of debt subject to the limit is USD17.3trn.

US January Employment Report (13:30 GMT)

Get involved in the most intense market events. As such, I think you should know that U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures are expected tomorrow,Friday, January 8, at 13:30 (GMT), and you need to be prepared.

Market events like this one tend to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further.

Generally, the Majors are the ones most affected by market events in general, but Crude Oil, Gold prices, and even the price of Silver can change dramatically in the seconds after such a publication.

Consensus is 185K

 

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  • German judges refer ECB's bond-buying to European Court
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    Germany's Constitutional Court will refer a complaint against the European Central Bank's flagship "unlimited"  bond-buying plan to the European Court, removing the prospect of it curbing the program. The court said on Friday there was good reason to think the scheme "exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus…
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  • The Real Cause Of Low Oil Prices: Interview With Arthur Berman
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    Submitted by James Stafford via OilPrice.com, With all the conspiracy theories surrounding OPEC’s November decision not cut production, is it really not just a case of simple economics? The U.S. shale boom has seen huge hype but the numbers speak for themselves and such overflowing optimism may have been unwarranted.…
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Trading, USA

What is debt-ceiling ?

Picking the best debt-ceiling explainer is a very subjective task. Do you like charts? Then you’ll probably like to have the debt ceiling explained in one chart.  Do you like movies? This one will explain the debt ceiling in 90 seconds.  Do you like cheese from Denmark? Then you will probably like the country’s lessons on how to do debt ceilings.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/02/06/debt-ceiling-explainers-explained/

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  • What Alan Greenspan Has Learned Since 2008
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USA

January 2014 employment report alias NFP

Tomorrow brings the January 2014 employment report – NFP – .  The usual caveats apply:

  • The monthly change in payrolls is a net number and represents only a fraction of the churn in the labor market.
  • The employment data is heavily revised.  The preliminary number can greatly understate or overstate actual labor market behavior.
  • Nasty weather might also have impacted the numbers.  Robin Harding at the Financial Times identifies other factors – expiration of unemployment benefits and annual revisions – that can also scramble the final numbers in the report.
  • Forecasting the change in payrolls is thus something of a fool’s game.  A game we all play nonetheless.

US NFP Employment measures is the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency.

Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.

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Trading, USA

New York bank regulator Lawsky opens currency trading probe

Benjamin Lawsky, New York’s financial services superintendent, has opened an investigation into manipulation of the currency markets by large banks and is requesting documents from more than a dozen institutions, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The source said Lawsky has asked for documents from Barclays BARCR.UL, Credit Suisse (MLPN.P), Deutsche Bank DBKGN.DE, Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY.L), RBS (RBS.L), Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) and Standard Chartered.

Reuters

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Trading, USA

Deutsche Bank Is Said to Fire 3 Currency Traders in New York

Deutsche Bank has fired three currency traders in New York as regulators worldwide ramp up their investigations into potential manipulation of the $5-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, according to a person briefed on the matter.

The three employees include the head of Deutsche Bank’s emerging markets foreign exchange trading desk in New York and two traders, said the person, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

Source URL

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