Tag Archives: china

Warning sign :: Chinese property developers borrow at record pace

Global investors are lending money to Chinese property developers in record amounts this year, in spite of a deteriorating housing market and warnings from rating agencies over the state of the sector.

Offshore bond issuance from mainland property companies is on track for a record year, with $18bn of debt sold year to date, according to Dealogic – fast approaching the $19.5bn total for all of 2013. The year’s biggest deal came in July, when Sino-Ocean Land borrowed $1.2bn in the dollar bond market.

The rise in offshore borrowing has coincided with tighter credit conditions within China that have forced developers to look overseas for funding.

Beijing has been trying to reduce leverage in the domestic economy following a period of rapid credit expansion. As a result, banks have cut back on lending to certain sectors and the growth of alternative funding channels such as trust loans has slowed.

Falling housing sales have also hit the most important cash generator for developers. Sales have dropped 8.2 per cent so far this year by value, while price cuts introduced to entice buyers have dented margins.

Read more here : http://on.ft.com/1rc70Ey via @FT

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    The yuan will be able to trade as much as 2% on either side of a daily central bank reference rate, compared with the current 1%  
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    The Global Financial Crisis has increased the importance of the renminbi as an international currency. This column describes how the status of the remnibi has changed relative to that of the dollar and the euro. It also discusses what their future as future currencies would be. The author suggests that…
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  • 58
    For 31-year old Beijing resident Wang Yuanzhi, talk about a bubble in Chinese property is not something to be too concerned about. "If you look at the real estate market in China, it has already seen a golden decade of extreme fast growth. There will still be room for growth…
    Tags: market, china, growth, housing, chinese, property, beijing, year, fast, economy
  • 57
    Professor Shiller provides a description of the course, including its general theme, the relevant textbooks, as well as the interplay of his course with Professor Geanakoplos's course "Economics 251--Financial Theory." Finance, in his view, is a pillar of civilized society, dealing with the allocation of resources through space and time…
    Tags: china, trading

China real-estate: A bubble bursting

For 31-year old Beijing resident Wang Yuanzhi, talk about a bubble in Chinese property is not something to be too concerned about.

“If you look at the real estate market in China, it has already seen a golden decade of extreme fast growth. There will still be room for growth in this market, even in the next ten to twenty years,” said Wang, who bought a home under construction last December. “The whole housing bubble is a fear; it is a concentration on the risks that the real estate market faces.”

Underlying confidence expressed by residents such as Wang may be what China’s authorities hope will aid a recovery in a market that has seen prices fall for three straight months.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101945949

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    Tags: china's, room, growth, year, fall, market, economy, china
  • 76
    Chinese economic growth slowed to the lowest level since 1999 last year, expanding 7.7%. Policymakers have recognized the need to rebalance economic growth and are now slowly transitioning away from a credit and export driven economy to one driven by consumer growth. Some argue that the recent crackdown on shadow banking and the money market rate spikes are…
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  • 68
    China's central bank reiterated its stance of continuing with a stable monetary policy this year and promising to contain risks in lending, noting that the economy has yet to find a stable base for growth. In its quarterly monetary policy report, released on Saturday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC)…
    Tags: china, property, china's, year, growth, economy, risks
  • 68
    The global financial crisis did not start in 2008 but in 2007 when BNP Paribas and UBS AG suspended withdrawals from some of their funds. If the world is once again buffeted by a similar crisis thanks to the enormous splurge in Chinese lending and fears about the quality of…
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Top One Percent Has One Third of China’s Wealth

 A recent academic report on wealth inequality in China shows that the top one percent of households holds one-third of total assets, while the bottom fourth holds only one percent.

The report, published by a research institute in Peking University, says the Gini coefficient, better known for its application in income distributions, shows that the gap in wealth between households in the country has considerably widened. The Gini coefficient has increased from 0.45 in 1995 to 0.73 in 2013.

A Gini coefficient of 0 would mean that every household has the same amount of property, while a coefficient of 1 would indicate that all wealth is owned by one household.

These statistics, provided in the Institute of Social Science Survey’s 2014 China Welfare Development Report, are not out of the ordinary by global standards. But they mark a dramatic change from the situation as recently as 2000, when China had the second most equal distribution of wealth in the world according to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research.

The lead author of the report, Institute director Xie Yu, said in an interview with Caixin that wealth inequality in China is relatively high, but hasn’t passed a level where it would be likely to cause social instability. Excerpts of that interview follow.

Caixin: Is the Gini coefficient for wealth inequality like the Gini for income inequality, which has an internationally accepted “warning line” that shouldn’t be crossed? Will the current level of wealth inequality have an impact on China’s social development?

Xie Yu: I don’t agree with this view. The so-called “warning line” doesn’t exist, in either wealth inequality or income inequality.

Actually, the public is still tolerant of growing wealth inequality, as long as wealth is amassed legitimately. We place more emphasis on the reasonableness and legality of the way someone gets rich than on how much money they have. What Deng Xiaoping’s famous pronouncement – “Let some people get rich first” – really means is that “you can be rich, and I can also be rich.”

But on the other hand, relatively poor people in countries like the United States don’t have too much to worry about, because their health care and pensions are guaranteed by society. In China, where those costs aren’t provided for as well, poor people without property as a safety net are more anxious.

In addition, the vast majority of rich people in the U.S. donate a portion of their wealth to charity, but wealthy Chinese people still donate very little. In this and other ways, private property can help provide for the needs of public goods.

Why do you think Chinese people are willing to accept wealth inequality?

In my 2010 article Understanding China’s Inequality I argued that inequality is unlikely to lead to political and social instability for three reasons.

First, China’s inequality is manifested more through a collective form as a group compared with another group rather than individuals against individuals. That means the hard feelings about inequality are softened by the sense of belonging to a group.

The second reason is ideological. Despite the strong moral appeal of equality in China, the country’s traditional culture is relatively tolerant of inequality. But I think that most people tolerate inequality only when they can advance to a higher class of social status through their own efforts.

Third, some Chinese people believe that economic development itself may lead to inequality. We want to develop and improve people’s lives, and it is difficult to avoid inequality in the process. Thus some of the people dissatisfied by inequality grudgingly accept it.

These three factors mean that the problem of inequality in contemporary China is unlikely to lead to social instability. And I think that Chinese society also has certain mechanisms, such as politics, culture, public opinion, family, social relationships, etc., to regulate the social harm that inequality does cause.

What is the influence of wealth inequality on the solidification of social classes?

There will be some impact. The higher the wealth gap, the higher the possibility that classes will solidify in place, because the current generation’s wealth can be transferred to the next generation. If a child of rich parents doesn’t live up to expectations in school, the parents can let the child inherit their company.

What is distinctive about property inequality in China, as compared to the rest of the world?

China’s income inequality is relatively high, and its wealth inequality, as measured by the Gini index, is greater than its income inequality. The U.S.’ income inequality index is lower than China’s, but its wealth inequality is higher – Its Gini coefficient for household wealth was 0.8, compared with China’s 0.73.

This is because the United States has a relatively mature market economy, where wealth has been accumulated slowly through income and investment. Many in China, however, own homes allocated to them by the government. As those homes’ value increased, so did their wealth. That means wealth is less related to income in China than in the U.S.

So compared with the United States, is more of China’s wealth in real estate?

Yes. This is also why some rich Chinese people don’t feel rich: their property is mainly in real estate, and their income isn’t high enough to buy the same kind of house again. Many wealthy Chinese people are rich simply as a result of luck. A bus driver, for example, can claim to be wealthy because he has been allocated a home even though his income is low.

Source : http://english.caixin.com/2014-08-04/100712733.html

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June 2014: Echoes of June 1914?

This week marks the centenary of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria – the key trigger for WWI leading to a conflict between European powers soon enough. A hundred years later, the world has similar echoes of the early 20th century with a major shift in global power once again occurring.

The power has shifted from the global North to the South with Asian countries such as China being primary beneficiaries, as opposed to Germany and Russia. The geo-political tensions are once again challenging key elements of the U.S-led international order. This is partly driven by rising economic power resurrecting nationalism and claims for resources shown by disputes between China, and neighboring countries.

It is in Asia where the most tension and insecurity lies in terms of potential for a great power war: there is focus on the Syrian conflict and rise of Islamic extremist group ISIS in Iraq. China’s rise is then unsettling the region and the world with dangers of miscalculation growing because of military build-ups. Even the Japanese Prime Minister has drawn parallels in the geopolitical landscape in Asia today and Europe in the eve of war in 1914. Philippine President compared Beijing’s track record of belligerent behavior with Germany expansionism in 20th century by questioning which point is actually the stopping point.

In Asia, the tensions between Japan and China, as well as between Taiwan and China, are potential triggers of conflict.

However, there exist differences making the war impossible. The memories of the two wars linger quite strongly; the emergence of Communism in Russia, and seeds of Nazis leading to WWII. The presence of nuclear power is a great brake on major power conflict. Both revisionist nations, China and Russia, and status-quo powers all possess nuclear power. Post war international institution presence, like the United Nations, is another determinant to stopping any major war from occurring. Lastly, there is a difference in the gap of power in the leading powers today which again has a great role to play.

Since WWI, when United States emerged as a super power, the country has gone through decline. purchasing power parity has shown that China is to become the biggest economy of the World. There are indications that U.S power will remain resilient for decades to come buoyed by factors such as the energy revolution which has far reaching consequences.

Overall, while another major war can not be ruled out, the prospect of this for the foreseeable future is not as high as it was 100 years ago.

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Renminbi (RMB) has taken center stage on global currency markets

The move in March by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to double the RMB’s daily trading band from 1 percent to 2 percent has coincided with a new era of exchange rate volatility. This year, the long running trend of RMB appreciation has reversed course with it losing 3.4 percent against the dollar since its January high.

At the same time, interest in the RMB has exploded due to its widening use in global markets and a proliferation of offshore currency derivative products. Added into the melting pot is the degree to which the RMB has become a highly popular carry-trade, at a time that markets are still digesting the implications of Fed tapering.

Last year, the RMB entered the list of top 10 most traded currencies for the first time, according to the latest triennial foreign exchange (FX) market survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).  This made the RMB the ninth most actively traded currency with a share of 2.2 percent in global FX volumes after volumes trebled from $34 billion (U.S.) per day in April 2010 to $120 billion (U.S.).

Other signs suggest RMB trading momentum is continuing. In February this year, Thompson Reuters reported that the CNH has become the second largest traded FX currency on its relationship trading platform.

http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com

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  • 72
    Efforts by China to damp speculation in its currency risks driving away investors just as it’s attempting to open up its capital markets in a once-in-a-generation economic overhaul. After allowing the yuan to steadily rise in each of the past four years, China’s central bank let it tumble about 1…
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  • 71
    China’s central bank weakened the renminbi by its most in two decades on Tuesday. The unexpected move fuelled talk of “currency wars”, although some interpreted it as a welcome gesture towards market reform and financial liberalisation. What happened? The People’s Bank of China devalued its currency by setting the daily…
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  • 66
    Currency traders are having their worst start to a year since 2010 as a dearth of trends in major foreign-exchange markets crushes their investment strategies. Deutsche Bank AG’s Currency Returns Index has dropped 0.3 percent since Dec. 31, dragged down by momentum trading, where investors looks for consistent moves in…
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Jack Ma is the founder, chairman and CEO of the Alibaba Group.

Jack Ma is the main founder of Alibaba Group, China’s largest e-commerce business whose IPO may be one of the world’s largest this year if it finally happens. After failing to win Hong Kong regulatory support for a listing under its current shareholder structure last year, the company held off on an expected IPO that could value it at as much as $150 billion. Besides Ma and vice chairman Joseph Tsai both members of this year’s Forbes Billionaires list–key investors include Yahoo and Japan’s Softbank. Elfish Ma, an Internet icon for years, is a former English teacher and active philanthropist.[*]

In May 2009, Ma was honored by Time magazine with inclusion into the Time 100 list of the world’s 100 most influential people. In reporting Mr. Ma’s accomplishments, Adi Ignatius, former Time senior editor and editor-in-chief of the Harvard Business Review, said, “Meeting Jack Ma, you might be forgiven for thinking he’s still an English teacher. The Chinese Internet entrepreneur is soft-spoken and elflike — and he speaks really good English. But as founder and CEO of Alibaba.com, Ma, 44, runs one of the world’s biggest B2B online marketplaces, an eBay for companies doing international trade.  Alibaba and Ma’s consumer-auction website, Taobao.com, did so well that in 2006, eBay shut down its own site in China.” He was also chosen as one of “China’s Most Powerful People” by BusinessWeek, and one of the “Top 10 Most Respected Entrepreneurs in China” by Forbes China in 2009. Ma received the “2009 CCTV Economic Person of the Year: Business Leaders of the Decade Award”.

In 2010, Ma was selected by Forbes Asia as one of “Asia’s Heroes of Philanthropy” for his contribution to disaster relief and poverty.

It is clear that Jack has clearly found an algorithm of success that works. In addition he appears to seriously consider making it possible for his whole team to win as well.

Jack Ma isn’t a self obsessed silicon valley kid that is all about the money and personal fame. He seems to be looking beyond the cash and prizes and establishing real sustaining practices to build businesses, creating opportunities for employees to be happy at their jobs and developing products that are useful. [*]

Here are several quotes and ideas of Jack Ma:

v  Customers should be number 1, Employees number 2, and then only your Shareholders come at number 3.

v  Your attitude determines your altitude.

v  Don’t make complaining and whining a habit

v  A real businessman or entrepreneur has no enemies. Once he understands this, the sky’s the limit.

v  Always let your employees come to work with a smile.

v  Rather than having small smart tricks to get by, focus on holding on and persevering.

v  You should find someone who has complementary skills to start a company with. You shouldn’t necessarily look for someone successful. Find the right people, not the best people

v  A leader should have higher endurance and ability to accept and embrace failure

Only fools use their mouth to speak. A smart man uses his brain, and a wise man uses his heart.[*]

 

Jack Ma’s advice to entrepreneurs

  1. The opportunities that everyone cannot see are the real opportunities.
  2. Always let your employees come to work with a smile.
  3. Customers should be number 1, Employees number 2, and then only your Shareholders come at number 3.
  4. Adopt and change before any major trends or changes.
  5. Forget the money; Forget about earning money.
  6. Rather than having small smart tricks to get by, focus on holding on and persevering.
  7. Your attitude determines your altitude. )[*]

Jack Ma on entrepreneurship

  1. A great opportunity is often hard to be explained clearly; things that can be explained clearly are often not the best opportunities.
  2. You should find someone who has complementary skills to start a company with. You shouldn’t necessarily look for someone successful. Find the right people, not the best people.
  3. The most unreliable thing in this world is human relationships.
  4. “Free” is the most expensive word.
  5. Today is cruel, tomorrow will be worse, but the day after tomorrow will be beautiful.[*]

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China’s Economy Surpassing U.S.? #China #USA

There are a number of reports around Wednesday that China’s economy, by one measure at least, is likely to surpass the U.S. in size sometime this year.

The headlines will surprise many people, used to hearing China’s economy will overtake the U.S. sometime in the 2020s, or even later.

On Wednesday, the International Comparison Program, a statistical project coordinated by the World Bank, announced new data on the size of economies by purchasing power parity that suggests China’s economy is bigger than previously thought.

But the latest news is anything but surprising.

Regular GDP power rankings are compiled by converting a country’s gross domestic product into U.S. dollars at market exchange rates. The U.S.’s economy in 2012 was valued at over $16 trillion, twice the size of China’s, according to World Bank statistics. It’s by these measures that China’s economy won’t overtake the U.S. for a decade or more.

http://blogs.wsj.com/

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  • 67
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    Tags: data, economy, domestic, announced, gdp, year, china
  • 67
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No Flash Boys in #China’s Sleepy Over-the-Counter Markets

Shanghai’s over-the-counter equity market was almost deserted on a weekday morning last week. Two cleaning ladies swept the floor of a trading hall devoid of brokers or computers, while a woman at an information desk ate breakfast and talked on her mobile phone.

During four visits this year to the market, set up in 2012 in an industrial park a half-hour’s drive from the city’s main stock exchange, no prospective investors were in evidence. Fewer than one-third of the 150 companies listed on two large screens have ever traded, according to ChinaScope Financial Ltd., a Shanghai-based data provider.

http://www.bloomberg.com/

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  • 80
    China's banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, a surge that suggests the world's second-biggest economy may not be cooling as much as some fear. Chinese banks lent 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion) worth of new yuan loans in January, beating a 1.1 trillion…
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China Money Rate Set for Biggest Weekly Decline in Three Months

China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements.

The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of 11:06 a.m. in Shanghai, according to a weighted average from the National Interbank Funding Center. That’s the biggest decline since the five days ended Dec. 27. The rate fell 111 basis points today, the most since March 6.

http://www.bloomberg.com/

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Near-bankrupt #Chinese property firm offers lesson in lending risks

To understand why many of China’s small property developers are struggling, look no further than Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate.

The once little-known regional developer is now on the brink of becoming one of China’s biggest real estate bankruptcies in recent memory.

As China’s property bubble shows signs of deflating in some areas – in peripheral neighborhoods in lower-tier cities – privately held developers like Zhejiang Xingrun are falling by the wayside, victims of a toxic combination of unjustified optimism about the property market and sky-high interest rates.

http://www.reuters.com/

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