Tag Archives: crash

We get some strong deflation signs in USA last 3 months

We get some strong deflation signs in USA last 3 months, economic numbers not too good only thing rising is debt and consumer confidence.

 

Related Posts

  • 88
    Coal accounts for approximately 40 percent of all electrical generation on the entire planet.  When the price of coal starts to drop, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. Just prior to the last financial crisis in 2008, the price of coal shot up dramatically and then…
    Tags: crash, economic, economy
  • 86
    The price of iron ore has been crashing as well. It is down 35 percent in the last nine months, and David Stockman believes that this is because of a major deflationary crisis that is brewing in China… There is no better measure of the true contraction underway in China…
    Tags: months, crash, economy
  • 78
      Source : http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/14/the-dollar-run-hits-the-corporate-bubble/ The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble by Jeffrey P. Snider in Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets Tags:asian flu, asset bubbles, china, convertibility, corporate bond bubble, dollar run, eurodollar standard,global recession, high yield, interbank, junk, leveraged loans, Repo, wholesale funding, yuan By the behavior of…
    Tags: economy, crash
  • 78
    Half of the 41 fracking companies drilling for shale oil and gas in the US will be dead or sold by year-end amid steep crude price declines, Bloomberg reports.  An executive with Weatherford International Plc said slashed spending by oil companies has put much of the US fracking industry at risk.…
    Tags: crash, economy
  • 78
    The fast food chain is targeting 700 poor performing restaurants for closing this year, according to a McDonald's news release in which it reported losses not only in the United States, but in Europe and Asian as well. First quarter comparable sales in the United States decreased 2.6 percent and…
    Tags: consumer, economy, crash

Halts Dividends as Miners Face Commodity Fall

Anglo American Plc dropped to a new record low after scrapping its dividend for the first time since 2009 and pledging deeper spending cuts to help the mining company withstand a collapse in commodities. The company will suspend its payouts for the second half of this year and for 2016, it said in a statement Tuesday. Anglo is abandoning its practice of steadily increasing the dividend in favor of a system that allows the payment to rise and fall with the company’s profits, known as a dividend payout ratio. Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani is seeking to turn around the company’s fortunes in the face of metalprices at the lowest in about six years and China’s sluggish economic growth.

By the time Anglo suspended its dividend in 1998, the S&P Metals & Mining Index was down 50% from its monthly closing high. In 2008, it was down 67%. Currently, it is down 69%…These dividend suspensions are exactly what potential shareholders should be looking for as a signal that sentiment is nearing a trough.”

Related Posts

A Fireside Chat with Bill Gurley of Benchmark: The Future of Ecommerce — September 15, 2015

Related Posts

Venture capitalists say startups are taking on too much risk, and a shakeout is inevitable. But they’re not saying who will be shaken out.

Venture capitalists say startups are taking on too much risk, and a shakeout is inevitable. But they’re not saying who will be shaken out.

It wasn’t long ago that startups refused to reveal their valuations. It makes sense—valuations are paper money, after all. They’re based on the company’s ability to hit future growth milestones, which is a big “if.” Announcing a high valuation to the world makes a startup look like a guaranteed success, even if the reality is far from that.

That’s all changed, though, in the age of the unicorns. More than 130 startups are now worth $1 billion or higher, according to Fortune’s latest Unicorn List, and fundraising announcements today lead with the valuations—sometimes going so far as to call it “unicorn status” in PR pitches. TheNew York Times even made a list of 50 future unicorns, startups it believes are likely to hit that once-elusive $1 billion mark.

But amid all the unicorns getting their horns, investors have warned of “dead unicorns.” In March, investor Bill Gurley made headlines with his pronouncement that “a complete absence of fear” would lead to dead unicorns this year. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen warned in a tweetstorm that startups with high burn rates would “vaporize.” Last week Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff also predicted dead unicorns as startups seem to focus more on their valuations than their customers.

Investors are happy to predict failure, but they refuse to point any fingers. It’s understandable given the clubby, interconnected nature of Silicon Valley, and the fact that it’s bad form to be a “hater.” (Not to mention, they’d hate to admit having dead unicorns in their own portfolios.)

Whenever an investor does predict a major startup failure, it sends shock waves throughout the Twittersphere, as happened when Khosla Ventures’ Keith Rabois tweetedthat Foursquare, the local discovery service, would have to be bailed out with a “Hail Mary” acquisition. Rabois was quickly called a hater and compared to Donald Trump and Turtle, the freeloading character from Entourage.

Behind the scenes, though, some venture firms are quietly keeping tallies of unicorn startups they expect to die. None that Fortune spoke with would admit as much, even off the record—no one wants to appear to get enjoyment from someone else’s failures. (When their own portfolio companies fail, they simply remove the startup’s logo from their homepage and quietly tiptoe away.) But those who operate in the orbit of those VCs—limited partners, portfolio company execs, angel investors—have shared multiple “dying unicorn list” email chains with Fortune.

Why would a venture capitalist want to track startups that are failing? Opportunity. Cash-strapped startups are chock full of valuable employees who may be ripe for recruitment, or outright acquisition, by a competing portfolio company.

So which companies are on the dying unicorn lists? None that would surprise anyone playing close attention. If anything, the ones Fortune saw were disappointing in their lack of creativity. They include Gilt Groupe, the luxury commerce company rumored to have raised a “down round” below its $1 billion valuation earlier this year; Jawbone, whose struggles with strategy and lawsuits have been widely documented (including this year in a Fortunefeature story); and Bloom Energy, a fourteen-year-old fuel cell startup that has raised more than $1 billion in funding in a category that has proven challenging.

A Bloom Energy spokesperson said in a statement that the company is experiencing strong demand from new and current customers, citing a new partnership with Exelon to support 61 megawatts of fuel cell deployments. Representatives from Gilt Groupe and Jawbone declined to comment.

The value of such a list isn’t lost on the companies selling the pick-axes in our era’s gold rush. CB Insights, a venture capital data provider, has created a list of early-stage companies it believes are likely running out of cash. To access it, you’ll need some cash of your own—it costs $6,895.

( Source : http://fortune.com/2015/09/08/dying-unicorn-lists/ )

Related Posts

Bubbles oh Bubbles …

The risk that asset price bubbles pose for financial stability is still not clear. Drawing on 140 years of data, this column argues that leverage is the critical determinant of crisis damage. When fuelled by credit booms, asset price bubbles are associated with high financial crisis risk; upon collapse, they coincide with weaker growth and slower recoveries. Highly leveraged housing bubbles are the worst case of all.

Before the Global Crisis, the consensus among policymakers and economists alike was to largely ignore asset price bubbles. Justifications for this neglect differed. Some argued that asset price bubbles couldn’t be reliably detected. Others argued that nothing could or should be done about them since any intervention might be worse than the fallout from the bursting of the bubble. An implicit assumption was that central banks could, in any case, clean up the mess. The aftermath of the dotcom bubble lent support for this optimistic view of a central bank’s capabilities. Some even went so far as to decry the notion that asset bubbles exist.

After the Global Crisis, it has become harder for macroeconomists to treat asset price bubbles as rare exceptions that can be excluded from macroeconomic thinking on axiomatic grounds. In policy circles, Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, very publicly stepped away from old beliefs; he admitted the ‘flaw’ in his worldview, and began to entertain the possibility that central banks might need to pay attention to bubbles.1 Yet, we still know little about the appropriate policy response to developing asset price bubbles. While a consensus is developing that ‘leaning against the wind’ with interest rates is not always a good idea, it remains to be seen if the high hopes that are pinned on macroprudential policy will turn out to be justified (Galí 2014, Svensson 2014).

Credit, asset prices, and economic outcomes: New evidence

To quantify these trade-offs, more empirical work is clearly needed. What risk do asset price bubbles pose to macroeconomic and financial stability? What does the evidence show? In our new research (Jordà et al. 2015), we study the nexus between credit, asset prices, and economic outcomes in advanced economies since 1870.

We rely on a combination and extension of two new long-run macro-finance datasets. In Jordà et al. (2014) we presented the latest version of our long-run credit and macroeconomic dataset in the form of an annual panel of 17 countries since 1870. To study asset price booms we have added equity price data. The second dataset from the study by Knoll et al. (2014) covers house prices since 1870 on an annual basis for the panel of 17 countries and extends coverage by about 50% compared hitherto available data.

Our main findings support the post-crisis consensus that leveraged bubbles must be taken seriously. Mishkin (2008, 2009) and other policymakers have argued that there are two categories of bubbles: unleveraged ‘irrational exuberance’ bubbles and ‘credit boom bubbles’. In the latter, a positive feedback develops that involves credit growth, asset prices, and increasing leverage. When asset markets switch into reverse gear, the balance sheet overhang creates a painful economic hangover.

  • Our study shows that leverage-fuelled asset price bubbles substantially raise the risk of a financial crisis and make recessions considerably more painful.
  • Unleveraged bubbles tend to blow over.

Yet, when credit boom bubbles go bust the macroeconomic consequences are severe.

  • Credit-fed housing bubbles are the most harmful combination of all.

Living in an age of leverage is not without its costs.

Empirical identification of asset price bubbles

The term ‘bubble’ traditionally refers to a situation in which asset prices increasingly deviate away from their fundamental value. Bubbles often end with a crash in asset prices. Determining the fundamental value is not easy since it is not directly observable. Moreover, there is no universally accepted standard definition of bubble phenomena. Studies such as Borio and Lowe (2002), Bordo and Jeanne (2002), Detken and Smets (2004), and Goodhart and Hofmann (2008) have all used either large deviations of price levels from some reference level and/or large rates (or amplitudes) of increase/decrease as indicative of the rise and fall of bubble episodes. We apply a two-pronged approach. We require a spell of sizeable asset price run-up (defined as a price deviation from log HP trend by 1 standard deviation or more) and a collapse in prices of 15% or more during the spell. Figure 1 displays examples of bubbles identified with this procedure.

Figure 1. Examples of bubble identification

Notes: The figures show, for each 10-year window, the log real asset price (rebased to the start year), a band of ±1 standard deviation (for that country’s detrended log real asset price), and the years for which the Bubble Signal is turned on using our algorithm.

Bubbles, credit booms, and financial crises

It is well known that rapid expansions of credit – credit booms – are associated with a higher likelihood of financial crisis (e.g., Schularick and Taylor 2012, Jordà et al. 2013, Drehmann and Juselius 2014). Here, we investigate how the interaction of asset price bubbles and credit booms affects financial stability. As the logit crisis prediction models in Table 1 show, our new research clarifies the results from our previous research. The association of credit and asset price booms is particularly dangerous relative to expansions of credit alone. Housing bubbles more so than equity bubbles.

Table 1. Predicting financial crisis recessions

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. The dependent variable based on peaks of business cycles identified using Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. The dependent variable is one if the recession is associated with a financial crisis within a 2-year window of the peak, 0 otherwise. Bubble episodes are associated with recessions by considering the expansion over which the bubble takes place and using the subsequent peak. See text.

The economic costs of bubbles

The core theme of our new paper is about the connection between asset price bubbles, credit, and the consequences for the real economy. Can asset price bubbles be safely ignored? Does credit make any difference to how we think about the aftermath of bubbles? Are equity bubbles as dangerous as housing price bubbles? Using historical data, we characterise the typical paths of economies through the business cycle when an asset price bubble is involved and where we stratify by the expansion of credit. We apply local-projection methods (Jordà 2005) to calculate the dynamic responses of economies to leveraged and unleveraged bubbles in equity and housing markets.

The key results are presented in Figure 2 for the full sample (N=140 recessions). The left-hand panel shows the average path of real GDP per capita of economies through recessions and recoveries. In normal recessions, the economy shrinks in year 1 and recovers the previous peak level of output in year 2. The other lines show the average path when there is an equity bubble and below/above average credit growth, and the right-hand panel shows a similar chart using the housing bubble indicator instead. Each panel displays the baseline normal recession path with a 90% confidence region.

The basic lessons are as follows:

  • Equity bubbles are damaging.

They are associated with a slightly worse recession and a slower recovery in the full sample. However, we do find that after WWII the damage from equity bubbles does diminish. And even if equity bubbles have a relatively small effect overall, they are clearly associated with more damage when accompanied by above average growth in credit, regardless of the sample studied.

  • The right-hand panel shows that bubbles in housing prices are associated with noticeably worse recession and recovery paths.

Moreover, these effects grow much stronger when credit expands above the historical mean during the preceding expansion. On average, after a credit-fuelled house price bubble, advanced economies have taken more than five years to return to their previous peak level of output.

Figure 2. Economic costs of bubbles (full sample with controls)

Conclusions: Bubble trouble

In this column, we turned to economic history for the first comprehensive assessment of the economic risks of asset price bubbles. We provide evidence about which types of bubbles matter and how their economic costs differ. Our historical analysis shows that not all bubbles are created equal. When credit growth fuels asset price bubbles, the dangers for the financial sector and the real economy are much more substantial. The damage done to the economy by the bursting of credit boom bubbles is significant and long lasting.

In the past decades, central banks typically have taken a hands-off approach to asset price bubbles and credit booms. This way of thinking has been criticised by some institutions, such as the BIS, that took a less rosy view of the self-equilibrating tendencies of financial markets and warned of the potentially grave consequences of leveraged asset price bubbles. The findings presented here can inform ongoing efforts to devise better macro-financial theory and real-world applications at a time when policymakers are still searching for new approaches in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

References

Bordo, M D, and O Jeanne (2002), “Monetary Policy And Asset Prices: Does ‘Benign Neglect’ Make Sense?”, International Finance 5(2): 139–164.

Borio, C, and P Lowe (2002), “Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus”, BIS Working Paper 114.

Detken, C, and F Smets (2004), “Asset price booms and monetary policy”, in Siebert, H (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, Berlin: Springer, pp. 189–227.

Drehmann, M, and M Juselius (2014), “Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements”, International Journal of Forecasting 30(3): 759–80.

Galì, J (2014), “Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles”, The American Economic Review 104(3): 721–52.

Goodhart, C, and B Hofmann (2008), “House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy”,Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24(1): 180–205.

Jordà, Ò (2005), “Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections”, The American Economic Review 95(1): 161–82.

Jordà, Ò, M Schularick, and A M Taylor (2013), “When Credit Bites Back”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 45(s2): 3–28.

Jordà, Ò, M Schularick, and A M Taylor (2014), “The Great Mortgaging: Housing Finance, Crises, and Business Cycles”, NBER Working Papers 20501.

Jordà, Ò, M Schularick, and A M Taylor (2015), “Leveraged Bubbles”, NBER Working Papers 21486.

Knoll, K, M Schularick, and T Steger (2014), “No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870–2012”, CEPR Working Paper 10166.

Mishkin, F S (2008), “How Should We Respond to Asset Price Bubbles?”, Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, vol. 12 (October), pp. 65–74.

Mishkin, F S (2009), “Not all bubbles present a risk to the economy”, Financial Times, November 9, 2009.

Schularick, M, and A M Taylor (2012), “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–2008”, The American Economic Review 102(2): 1029–61.

Svensson, L E O (2014), “Inflation Targeting and “Leaning against the Wind”, International Journal of Central Banking 10(2): 103–14.

Footnote

1 See, for example, “An interview with Alan Greenspan,” FT Magazine, 25 October, 2013.

( Source : http://www.voxeu.org/article/leveraged-bubbles )

Related Posts

This is a cyclical downturn this is a cyclical downturn

( Source : http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-31/maybe-this-global-slowdown-is-different )

The global economy is slowing down. A couple of the big emerging-market economies that drove much of the growth during the past 15 years have hit a wall, and the question of the moment is whether the biggest of them, China, is in real trouble too. Commodity prices are tanking. Trade volumes are down. The Baltic Dry Index of shipping costs, which rebounded from a record low earlier this year, is falling again.

These are all characteristic of a cyclical downturn. And this is a cyclical downturn — oil prices will rise again someday. So will emerging-market stock and bond prices.

But there could also be something else afoot. We could be seeing early signs of longer-term changes in the global economy — changes that could be enormously positive, but also have the potential to upend a lot about how the world works today.

At this point these are just inklings, but I did what I always do when I have an inkling: I made some charts. First, here’s the picture on global trade:

global trade

After a spectacular rise in the 2000s, trade volumes plummeted after the 2008 financial crisis. They then recovered, but declined again in 2013. More up-to-date figures for just the G7 and BRIICS countriesshow that the decline may be accelerating.

trade slowdown new

Again, these things do go in waves. But there’s good reason to think that the trade gains of the 1990s and 2000s probably won’t be replicated anytime soon. As Michael Francis and Louis Morel of the Bank of Canada summed up in a recent report:

[T]rade reforms and technological innovations that lowered trade costs during the 1990s had a substantial effect on global trade by encouraging emerging markets to integrate into the global economy and by making global value chains economically viable. As a result, global trade rose relative to GDP. However, since this process is largely complete, the underlying incentives to expand trade are likely weaker now than they were in previous decades, leaving the world in a state where trade is neither rising nor falling relative to GDP.

A related argument is the one that’s been made by Harold Sirkin of the Boston Consulting Group for several years: Building global supply chains became so fashionable for Western manufacturers that they built them even when it made sense to keep production closer to customers; now they’re retrenching and revising their approach.

Still, I can’t help but thinking (perhaps wishfully thinking) that what we’re seeing might also be the beginnings of a plateauing in the world’s demand for things — and, even more, the resources needed to make those things. After all, the latest United Nations population projections, released in July, do indicate that we may be nearing a plateauing of the number of people on the planet.

population

Still, in the median forecast, the plateauing won’t happen till the end of the century. It’s possible that it won’t happen at all. Also, there are still billions of people around the world hoping to emerge from poverty and consume more things and resources. We’d have to see already-affluent people buying fewer things and consuming fewer resources to get the kind of shift I’m talking about. Are we seeing that?

Well, sort of. Here’s one remarkable shift the U.S. economy has made during the past 65 years:

goods services

The U.S. economy has grown so much during that period that people now are still buying more physical stuff than they did in 1950. Still, there are signs of a plateau. Consider what was long the iconic good produced by the U.S. economy, the automobile.

peak auto

The big growth years definitely seem to be over, even though U.S. population has kept growing. Still, this chart doesn’t exactly offer conclusive evidence. The trajectory on energy use is a little clearer.

energy

Americans use substantially less energy per capita now than they did in the 1990s. In Europe the trajectory is muddled by the entry of Eastern European countries into the global economy in the 1990s, which brought increased affluence and with it higher energy use — but the low level is an indication that the U.S. likely still has a lot of room to cut. The rapid growth in energy use in China was of course one of the factors behind the global natural resources boom that recently went bust.

The decline in Chinese demand for natural resources during the past year has been one of the main things prompting observers to wonder if the country is undergoing a much-sharper economic slowdown than the official numbers indicate. It may well be. But this also could be evidence of the Chinese economy’s shift away from resource-intensive manufacturing and infrastructure-building and toward providing services for Chinese consumers. In general, developing countries are making the switch from goods to services much earlier in their development than the U.S. and Europe did. This may not be all good news; economist Dani Rodrik worries that it might make it harder for them to catch up with wealthy countries. But it does mean less demand for things, and for the resources to make those things.

Finally, consider the things that people do want to spend their money on. The defining consumer product of our age is the smartphone. A smartphone is a good, and it takes resources to make and transport it. Still, it takes a lot less resources than, say, a car. Most of its value is in the software that is loaded onto it and the people, information and entertainment you can connect to with it. That’s a different sort of value creation than 20th-century resource-based value creation. If that’s the direction the global economy is headed in, the connections between growth, trade and resource consumption aren’t going to be the same as they have been. That is probably a good thing.

  1. G7: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States. BRIICS: Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

To contact the author on this story:
Justin Fox at justinfox@bloomberg.net

Related Posts

  • 73
    Here are 10 warning signs that the markets may drop further. Vix fear gauge Rising US Treasury yields Credit insurance Rising US credit risk Rising UK bank risk Interest rate shock Bull market third longest on record Overvalued US market Commodity collapse Professional investors exit Watch those signs
    Tags: crash, trading
  • 71
    The Dow had broken 17,000, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had touched a record high and was spitting distance from crossing 2,000. Even the small-cap indexes such as the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 have notched new highs. And the Nasdaq, up 255 percent since the March 2009…
    Tags: crash, good, trading, economy
  • 69
    There are serie parallels between the stock market’s recent behavior and how it behaved right before the 1929 crash. That at least is the conclusion reached by a frightening chart that has been making the rounds on Wall Street. The chart superimposes the market’s recent performance on top of a…
    Tags: crash, trading
  • 67
    Predicting big market crashes is a difficult business, many would say impossible. A pair of physicists - drawing inspiration from the market for bitcoin, no less -might be on to something. They turned to the bitcoin market because it has a unique feature, perhaps related to the fact that it is still…
    Tags: crash, trading
  • 65
    Are stock markets about to crash? If there's anyone in the world worth asking, it's Professor Robert Shiller, although you may not like his answer. Shiller's 'CAPE ratio' is among the most widely-used measures of whether markets are cheap or expensive, and he got the Nobel Prize for economics last…
    Tags: crash, prices, years, trading

Everything you’ve heard about China’s stock market crash is wrong

(Source : http://qz.com/486476/everything-youve-heard-about-chinas-stock-market-crash-is-wrong/ )

This week’s Chinese stock market implosion has been widely viewed as a reaction to the Chinese government’s devaluing the yuan on Aug. 11—a move many presume was a frenzied bid to lower export prices and strengthen the economy.

This interpretation doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. First, Chinese investors haven’t been investing based on how the economy is doing, but rather, based on what they think the government will do to prop up the market. The crash, termed “Black Monday,” was more likely a reaction to the central bank’s failure over the weekend to announce a widely expected cut to the bank reserve requirement since previous cuts in February and April had boosted stock prices. The government eventually caved andannounced a cut on Tuesday (Aug. 25).

Second, the crash happened nearly two weeks after the devaluation, and the government only let the yuan depreciate by about 3% before swooping in and propping up its value again—which hardly helps exporters since the currency’s value effectively rose some 14% in the last year.

The devaluation probably had more to do with breaking the yuan’s tightly managed peg to the US dollar, an obligation that has been draining the economy of scarce liquidity as capital outflows swell.

Both moves—the government pulling back from its market bailout and the currency devaluation—stem from the same ominous problem: China’s leaders are scrambling to find the money to keep its economy running. To understand the broader forces that led to this predicament, here’s a chart-based explainer tracing its origins:

China used its exchange rate to stoke growth

China has long pegged its currency to the US dollar at an artificially cheap rate. Keeping the yuan cheaper than it should be, even as export revenues and foreign investment gushed in, allowed China to amass huge foreign exchange reserves, as we explain in more detail here:

A cheap currency has also powered China’s investment-driven growth model (more on this here). By paying more yuan than the market would demand for each dollar, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) created extra money out of thin air, sending it sloshing around in the economy. (Meanwhile, the PBoC prevented from driving up inflation by setting its bank reserve requirements unusually high, as we explain here.)

Easy money, easy lending, easy growth. This was especially true after the global financial crisis hit, when China pumped 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion in 2008 US dollars) into its economy to protect it from the fallout. The resulting double-digit growth attracted foreign investment and hot money inflows, raising demand for yuan. To buoy its faltering export industry, the PBoC had to buy even more dollars to prevent surging yuan demand from driving up the local currency’s value.

1
1

The government pumped the stock market

But growth is now slowing, making the $28 trillion in debt China racked up in the process even harder to pay off.

About a year ago, the government turned to pumping up the stock market. The thinking behind this move, says Derek Scissors, economist at the American Enterprise Institute, was, “Hey, why not address our huge problems by replacing debt with equity?” In other words, a bull market would help indebted companies raise new capital and pay off overdue loans. But eventually the market tanked.

So starting in early July, the government launched a sweeping stock market bailout, vowing to prop up the Shanghai Composite Index until it hit 4,500. The problem is, every time it has neared that target level, investors start selling in anticipation that the government will pull back its support. As a result, the Chinese government has now spent as much as $1 trillion to prop up stocks.

Hot money fled the country

While some investors were betting on stocks, others had seen the writing on the wall and were getting out—swapping their yuan for other currencies. Starting in late 2014, the influx of hot money reversed course, and speculative investment flooded out of China. One measure of that is the drop in (mostly) short-term trade finance from foreign banks, which started in Q4 2014:

Another is the fall in foreign exchange that Chinese banks are holding:

Once people started selling the yuan, others began fearing that their yuan holdings would lose value—so they sold too. Lower demand for the yuan should have lowered the currency’s value relative to the dollar. But the PBoC had to keep the yuan’s value stable. Not only had it promised to do so as a requirement of joining the IMF’s basket of central bank reserve currencies; the yuan’s stability and gradual appreciation has long attracted foreign capital into China, says Carlo Reiter, an analyst at J Capital Research. To continue propping up the yuan’s value, the PBoC started selling dollars from its precious reserves in exchange for yuan:

Buying back yuan lowered liquidity, however, which raised borrowing costs, putting a damper on borrowing and investment and threatening deflation:

Higher borrowing costs exacerbated the country’s $28 trillion in debt, much of which has been borrowed at variable interest rates.

The rising stock market crimped bank lending

As investors shifted money from their banking deposits into brokerage accounts to buy stocks, liquidity tightened, leaving banks with less money to lend, says Christopher Balding, finance professor at Peking University. To keep the economy growing, the government continued to pressure banks to lend.

To help keep credit flowing, the Chinese government launched a bailout in early July (which, as we mentioned earlier, cost the government more than $1 trillion.) To fund this bailout, interbank lending by state-backed entities has surged, says Carlo Reiter, analyst at J Capital Research. In July, government institutions lent 9.3 trillion yuan to banks, mostly to boost the stock market, he says.

However, the flood of interbank capital eventually caught up with the PBoC. Adding even more money into the financial system put downward pressure on the yuan.

This brings us to the Aug. 11 currency devaluation, which likely occurred because the yuan became too “expensive to defend,” says Reiter. Nevertheless, the exchange rate has leveled off over the last few trading days—a sign that capital outflow is so great that the central bank has once again resorted to selling dollars for yuan.

Already, this “battle to stabilize the currency has had a significant tightening effect on domestic liquidity conditions,” wrote Wei Yao, economist at Societe Generale, in an Aug. 25 note. In other words, the government’s grand plans to reduce its debt woes while preventing capital from flowing out may have the perverse effect of causing more of both.

Related Posts

  • 74
    The price of iron ore has been crashing as well. It is down 35 percent in the last nine months, and David Stockman believes that this is because of a major deflationary crisis that is brewing in China… There is no better measure of the true contraction underway in China…
    Tags: china, crash, stock, economy
  • 67
    The fast food chain is targeting 700 poor performing restaurants for closing this year, according to a McDonald's news release in which it reported losses not only in the United States, but in Europe and Asian as well. First quarter comparable sales in the United States decreased 2.6 percent and…
    Tags: china, economy, crash
  • 65
    China's central bank reiterated its stance of continuing with a stable monetary policy this year and promising to contain risks in lending, noting that the economy has yet to find a stable base for growth. In its quarterly monetary policy report, released on Saturday, the People's Bank of China (PBOC)…
    Tags: bank, china, pboc, economy
  • 63
    The only thing we know for sure is that stock in Hanergy Thin Film Power, a solar panel company equipment owned by what was at the time China's richest man, fell 47 percent last Wednesday. We don't know exactly why it fell, or even how much its Chairman Li Hejun…
    Tags: stock, money, crash, china
  • 62
      When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal. Time is now rapidly running out. From China to…
    Tags: market, economy, china, chinese, stock, currency, bank, crash

Are we heading into a bigger storm ?

CM77NGgWgAAby46

Related Posts

Eight signs a global market crash is imminent as central banks lose control

 

When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal.

Time is now rapidly running out. From China to Brazil, the central banks have lost control and at the same time the global economy is grinding to a halt. It is only a matter of time before stock markets collapse under the weight of their lofty expectations and record valuations.

The FTSE 100 has now erased its gains for the year, but there are signs things could get a whole lot worse.

1. Chinese slowdown

China was the great saviour of the world economy in 2008. The launching of an unprecedented stimulus package sparked an infrastructure investment boom. The voracious demand for commodities to fuel its construction boom dragged along oil and resource-rich emerging markets.

The Chinese economy has now hit a brick wall. Economic growth has dipped below seven per cent for the first time in a quarter of a century, according to official data. That probably means the real economy is far weaker.

The People’s Bank of China has pursued several measures to boost the flagging economy. The rate of borrowing has been slashed during the past 12 months from six per cent to 4.85 per cent. Opting to devalue the currency was a last resort and signalled that the great era of Chinese growth is rapidly approaching its endgame.

Data for exports showed an 8.9 per cent slump in July from the same period a year before. Analysts expected exports to fall only 0.3 per cent, so this was a huge miss.

The Chinese housing market is also in a perilous state. House prices have fallen sharply after decades of steady growth. For the millions who stored their wealth in property, it makes for unsettling times.

2. Commodity collapse

The China slowdown has sent shock waves through commodity markets. The Bloomberg Global Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 commodities, fell to levels last seen at the beginning of this century.

The oil price is the purest barometer of world growth as it is the fuel that drives nearly all industry and production around the globe.

Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, has begun falling once again after a brief rally earlier in the year. It is now hovering above multi-year lows at about US$50 per barrel.

Iron ore is an essential raw material needed to feed China’s steel mills, and as such is a good gauge of the construction boom.

The benchmark iron ore price has fallen to US$56 per tonne, less than half its US$140 per tonne level in January 2014.

3. Resource price crisis

Billions of dollars in loans were raised on global capital markets to fund new mines and oil exploration that was only ever profitable at previous elevated prices.

With oil and metals prices having collapsed, many of these projects are now loss-making. The loans raised to back the projects are now under water and investors may never see any returns.

Nowhere has this been felt more acutely than shale oil and gas drilling in the U.S. Tumbling oil prices have squeezed the finances of U.S. drillers. Two of the biggest issuers of junk bonds in the past five years, Chesapeake and California Resources, have seen the value of their bonds tumble as panic grips capital markets.

As more debt needs refinancing in future years, there is a risk the contagion will spread rapidly.

4. Dominoes falling

The great props to the world economy are now beginning to fall. China is going into reverse. And the emerging markets that consumed so many of our products are crippled by currency devaluation. The famed Brics of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to whom the West was supposed to pass on the torch of economic growth, are in varying states of disarray.

The central banks are rapidly losing control. The Chinese stock market has already crashed and disaster was only averted by the government buying billions of shares. Stock markets in Greece are in turmoil as the economy grinds to a halt and the country flirts with ejection from the eurozone.

Earlier this year, investors flocked to the safe-haven currency of the Swiss franc but as a 1.1 trillion euro quantitative easing program devalued the euro, the Swiss central bank was forced to abandon its four-year peg to the euro.

5. Credit rollover

As central banks run out of silver bullets then, credit markets are desperately seeking to reprice risk. The London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), a guide to how worried U.K. banks are about lending to each other, has been steadily rising during the past 12 months. Part of this process is a healthy return to normal pricing of risk after six years of extraordinary monetary stimulus. However, as the essential transmission systems of lending between banks begin to take the strain, it is quite possible that six years of reliance on central banks for funds has left the credit system unable to cope.

Credit investors are often far better at pricing risk than optimistic equity investors. In the U.S., while the S&P 500 continues to soar, the high-yield debt market has already begun to fall sharply.

6. Interest rate shock

Interest rates have been held at emergency lows in the UK and US for around six years. The U.S. is expected to move first, with rates starting to rise from today’s 0 to 0.25 per cent around the end of the year. Investors have already starting buying dollars in anticipation of a strengthening U.S. currency. U.K. rate rises are expected to follow shortly after.

7. Bull market record

The U.K. stock market is in its 77th month of a bull market, which began in March 2009. On only two other occasions in history has the market risen for longer. One is in the lead-up to the Great Crash in 1929 and the other before the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s.

U.K. markets have been a beneficiary of the huge balance-sheet expansion in the U.S. US monetary base, a measure of notes and coins in circulation plus reserves held at the central bank, has more than quadrupled from around US$800 billion to more than US$4 trillion since 2008. The stock market has been a direct beneficiary of this money and will struggle now that QE3 has ended.

8. Overvalued U.S.

In the U.S., Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio — or Shiller CAPE — for the S&P 500 stands at 27.2, some 64 per cent above its historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher — in 1929, 2000 and 2007.

The Daily Telegraph

Related Posts

  • 70
      Source : http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/14/the-dollar-run-hits-the-corporate-bubble/ The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble by Jeffrey P. Snider in Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets Tags:asian flu, asset bubbles, china, convertibility, corporate bond bubble, dollar run, eurodollar standard,global recession, high yield, interbank, junk, leveraged loans, Repo, wholesale funding, yuan By the behavior of…
    Tags: central, bank, banks, economy, crash
  • 66
    When stock markets are free-falling 10+% in a matter of days, it’s natural to seek some answers to the question “why now?” Some are saying it was all the result of high-frequency trading (HFT), while others point to China’s modest devaluation of its currency the renminbi (a.k.a. yuan) as the…
    Tags: china, global, growth, economy, markets, central, bank
  • 65
    (Source http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-we-should-fear-deflation--not-welcome-it-9986726.html ) The UK isn’t in deflation yet. While central bankers know what to do about stopping inflation, they don’t know what to do about halting deflation. The Swiss National Bank last week abandoned its attempt to defend a currency floor, which caused a sharp appreciation in its currency, which…
    Tags: cent, price, economy, bank, central
  • 64
    China's central bank is prepared to take its strongest action since 2012 to loosen monetary policy if economic growth slows further, by cutting the amount of cash that banks must keep as reserves, sources involved in internal policy discussions say. A cut would be triggered if growth slips below 7.5…
    Tags: bank, central, banks, cent, growth, currency, year, expected, fall, market
  • 62
    (Source : http://qz.com/486476/everything-youve-heard-about-chinas-stock-market-crash-is-wrong/ ) This week’s Chinese stock market implosion has been widely viewed as a reaction to the Chinese government’s devaluing the yuan on Aug. 11—a move many presume was a frenzied bid to lower export prices and strengthen the economy. This interpretation doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. First, Chinese…
    Tags: market, china, currency, stock, bank, economy, chinese, crash

The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble

 

Source : http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/14/the-dollar-run-hits-the-corporate-bubble/

The ‘Dollar’ Run Hits The Corporate Bubble

By the behavior of the Chinese yuan itself, given the financial size here, we can readily assume that any “dollar” problem that is clearly causing the PBOC’s actions are sizable. Currencies throughout Asia are being roiled not unlike 1997 and oil prices sunk to a new “recovery” low. While that all suggests far away turmoil relevant only to those foreign shores, there are many domestic and internal eurodollar problems that leave little doubt about unification and singularity. As I wrote this morning, there is only one currency war and that is the “dollar” as it implodes onto itself.

The spread of financial irregularity, including stumped and deviating central banks (the list only grows, PBOC the latest casualty), signals the decay that began on August 9, 2007, as it has accelerated since last year. Internal interbank rates have risen, especially lately, which is central to all this “dollar” turmoil. Repo rates surged in the past two weeks, and while the GC rate paused yesterday (MBS down only from 30.7 bps to 30.1 bps), it remains at a noticeably elevated station.

ABOOK Aug 2015 Run Repo GCABOOK Aug 2015 Run Repo GC QE Comp

With all that in mind, Jason Fraser of Ceredex Value Advisors alerted me to greater and certainly related turmoil in the less visible high yield spaces. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield CCC Yield got absolutely slammed yesterday, rising from 13.58% to16.18%! That would suggest, as all listed above, that there has been inordinate and tremendous “dollar” pressure not in foreign, irrelevant locales but creeping into the contours of the domestic and internal framework. While that may be energy, as Jason points out, it cannot all be energy.

The surge there far surpassed the 2013 summer meltdown and actually equals the 2011 crisis crash.

ABOOK Aug 2015 Run BofAML HYs  CCC

In fact, other junk indicators were similarly taken out in a manner that we have seen before. The Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Master II yield was far less dramatic but still indicating a serious liquidity event in that risky space. As both yield indices make plain, the last time prices were so slammed was early to mid-December – right when the ruble was crashing and the franc/dollar problem was testing the Swiss National Bank’s last resolve.

ABOOK Aug 2015 Run BofAML HYs  Master II

December 16 also marked the low point in the S&P LSTA Leveraged Loan 100 Index. When last we left that part of the junk/risk market, it was selling off and only a few ticks above that December low. S&P has not updated its figures for the index since August 10, curiously going dark during all of this “dollar” turmoil. I emailed them directly for clarification, and the response I got was, “Just a lag in getting the data.”

I have no specific reason for doubting the sincerity of that reply and explanation, though I can’t help but note that it is awful curious that they would be having such pricing problems when the rest of their similarly situated class within the corporate bubble is as churning and possibly illiquid as the yuan. I cannot recall a similar lag in updating the index, but, again, I have no specific inside knowledge on their internal workings.

ABOOK Aug 2015 Leverage Lev Loan

The cumulative assessment of all these factors, great as they are in their individuality, is that the global financial system just endured this week another “dollar” run. We can say with some reasonable assurance there was one in early December, as well as one centered on October 15. They seem to be increasing in intensity and now reach, penetrating deeper into the bowels of the “dollar” system as well as taking down central banks with each successive wave.

As I wrote, again, this morning:

The higher currency fix signals that whatever great “dollar” run hit the China funding markets this week may have passed – even if only temporarily. In short, the actions of the PBOC, seen in light of what was a convertibility mini-crisis, a “run” of sorts, make sense where the yuan fix as some kind of “stimulus” in devaluation does not (or is at least far too inconsistent to be explanatory). The PBOC held the yuan steady to a near plateau for five months hoping for cessation of “dollar” pressure, but, like a coiled spring, it only intensified until there was no holding back anymore.

It will be interesting once S&P updates the leveraged loan index to see how much effect and maybe devastation was experienced there during this run. For now, it seems today as if the acuteness has abated and calm has been restored.

That does not mean, however, that all this is over; far from it. These tremors are warnings that the “dollar” system’s decay is reaching critical points. The mainstream will tender that this is really no big deal, just a tantrum of spoiled markets unwilling to easily treat the coming end of ZIRP and accommodation; that is simply and flat out false. There is a systemic liquidity problem that is and has been fatal, exposed to a greater degree by the continued withdrawal of eurodollar bank participation – the real “printing press.”

In a credit-based monetary system neither the economy nor its ultra-heavy financial component can move forward without ever-growing financialism; dark leverage and all that. There has been a continuous withdrawal dating back to, again, August 2007, but met with amplifications first in 2011, again in the middle of 2013 and then last year. This is not policy but a total systemic reset, as “money dealing” activities have never been settled this entire time. The dealer network simply withdrew starting in August 2007 with central bank balance sheets taking up the slack, belatedly as usual which is why there was a panic and crash. Dealers are again removing what little presence they have left but central banks seem totally unaware that that is the case, and that there is really nothing left for “money” intermediation upon that and their withdrawal.

I wrote back in May upon this very topic, as some very good and smart people, Perry Mehrling and Zoltan Pozsar, were attempting to gameplan the coming monetary shift. My view hasn’t changed, namely that the transition will not be a transition at all, but a potentially awaiting systemic decapitation:

I personally find way too much complacency in blindly believing that going from B to C will be only a minor inconvenience. It would be dangerous even under the circumstances where the system shifted from the dealers to the Fed and back to the dealers, with an infinite series of potential dangers even there. But to undertake a total and complete money market reformation from dealers to the Fed to money funds? There are no tests or history with which to suggest this is even doable under current intentions. Poszar and Mehrling’s contributions more than suggest that difficulty, but I think that still understates whether or not we ever get that far.

This latest “dollar” episode has continued to bear that out. How much further will it go before central banks wake up and see that their fantasy of a recovery and “resilient” financial system was a now-eight year old lie? That is, of course, a rhetorical question as they will not act until all is over. That is the problem, because this hollowed-out global “dollar” is supporting, badly, the main bubble, so the penetration into the corporate space is a highly unwelcome development (though welcome in the long run sense of actual and helpful balance) as this remains awaiting resolution upon increasingly unstable circumstances:

ABOOK June 2015 Bubble Risk Subprime to Junk Lev Loans CLOsABOOK June 2015 Bubble Risk Eurodollar Standard2

Related Posts

  • 78
    We get some strong deflation signs in USA last 3 months, economic numbers not too good only thing rising is debt and consumer confidence.  
    Tags: economy, crash
  • 76
    Coal accounts for approximately 40 percent of all electrical generation on the entire planet.  When the price of coal starts to drop, that is a sign that economic activity is slowing down. Just prior to the last financial crisis in 2008, the price of coal shot up dramatically and then…
    Tags: financial, crash, economy
  • 74
    The price of iron ore has been crashing as well. It is down 35 percent in the last nine months, and David Stockman believes that this is because of a major deflationary crisis that is brewing in China… There is no better measure of the true contraction underway in China…
    Tags: will, crash, economy
  • 70
      When the banking crisis crippled global markets seven years ago, central bankers stepped in as lenders of last resort. Profligate private-sector loans were moved on to the public-sector balance sheet and vast money-printing gave the global economy room to heal. Time is now rapidly running out. From China to…
    Tags: economy, central, banks, bank, crash
  • 69
    Half of the 41 fracking companies drilling for shale oil and gas in the US will be dead or sold by year-end amid steep crude price declines, Bloomberg reports.  An executive with Weatherford International Plc said slashed spending by oil companies has put much of the US fracking industry at risk.…
    Tags: will, crash, economy