Tag Archives: emerging

Russia Bond Sales Fail as Ruble to Micex Drop on Ukraine Tension #bond #russia

Russia scrapped bond sales for the seventh time in eight weeks as investors demanded higher yields after the U.S. said the country wasn’t taking steps to de-escalate the crisis in Ukraine.

The Finance Ministry canceled the sale of as much as 10 billion rubles ($280 million) of nine-year ruble securities and the same amount of five-year notes because there were no bids at acceptable prices, according to a statement on its website. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) of equities declined for a third day Russia’s benchmark bonds dropped.

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    Russia invades Ukraine: beware of a risk off weekly opening
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    Why would anyone want to buy a bond that last longer than they do? These ultra-long-dated assets fell out of favor in the fallout from the financial crisis, as investors shifted to shorter-duration bonds to protect them against unpredictable spikes in interest rates. But now the "century bond" is returning…
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  • 51
    On Thursday Mohamed A. El-Erian was on CNBC`s Halftime Report and he said something that a lot of people have been saying regarding the bond market, and it needs to be cleared up, because the amount of poor understanding regarding the bond market by people who make their living, i.e.,…
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  • 51
    Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum within 10 days on the decision in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula. The sudden acceleration of moves to bring Crimea, which has an ethnic Russian majority and has…
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  • 51
    A Russian occupation of Crimea raises the specter of the Cold War, in which the nuclear stalemate between the United States and the Soviet Union devolved into regional disputes around the world. While military and political frictions made the biggest headlines, the Cold War couldn’t be well understood without using…
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World turbulences ahead ? #IMF #Forex #Economy

10 years ago, the global economy seemed to be on the mend. Interests rates down to 1%, UK was in its 12th year of uninterrupted growth, China was a part of WTO and everyone firmly believed in self correcting markets. The monetary system crash was unforeseen and a surprise. IMF confessed that it had been guilty of groupthink and played down the signs of trouble.
2014 is not that different from 2004. The global economy is mobile again, with the cheap money available.

Some optimists believe that the period of low inflation and continual expansion has returned after the hiatus caused by the crash. Recessions are rare and countries eventually revert to a trend rate of growth. This could either be the start of another long global upswing, another case of groupthink. Maybe the IMF is yet again choosing to ignore the signs in 2014 which might lead to another turbulence. 5 of such sings are

  1. The global economy’s dependency on exceptionally low interest rates. The trough in interest rates has been lower in each subsequent cycle and they are now barely above zero.  
  2. The bond market crashed as the world’s central banks cautiously try to return monetary policy to a more normal setting with a modest and gradual increase in official interest rates. 
  3. Everyone relied on Shale Oil and Gas to be our next source of energy. However 15 major companies have written off $35bn in investment since the boom began. Getting oil and gas out of the ground is proving costlier and less profitable than expected
  4. the risk of resource conflicts within the next five to 10 years unless the international community gets serious about dealing with global warming. The catalogue of extreme weather events – from floods in the UK to droughts in Australia – is growing. 
  5. Rising inequality – a tiny elite now grabbing the lion’s share of global growth. At the bottom, and increasingly for those in the middle as well, it is a case of wage squeezes, high unemployment, debt, austerity and poverty. The 85 richest people on the planet own the same wealth as half the world’s population but seem oblivious to the risk of widespread social unrest.

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    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
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  • 71
    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
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  • 68
    För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
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  • 62
    The pound rose the most in two months versus the dollar this week as manufacturing and production data signaled the U.K. recovery is on track, boosting bets the Bank of England will raise interest rate and is going to nudge higher throughout the course of this month The pound gained…
    Tags: rate, interest, uk, usa, europe, economy
  • 60
    If trade and financial sanctions were imposed on Russia, the cost to the UK might well exceed the cost to Russia. That is presumably why the Foreign Office wrote - in a document carelessly (or deliberately?) displayed yesterday for the lenses of photographers - that "the UK should not support…
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Nigeria becomes Africa’s biggest economy #Mint

One MINT country show us we need to follow them.

 

Nigeria has “rebased” its gross domestic product (GDP) data, which has pushed it above South Africa as the continent’s biggest economy.

Nigerian GDP now includes previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production.

GDP for 2013 totalled 80.3 trillion naira (£307.6bn: $509.9bn), the Nigerian statistics office said.

That compares with South Africa’s GDP of $370.3bn at the end of 2013.

‘Changes nothing’

However, some economists point out that Nigeria’s economic output is underperforming because at 170 million people, its population is three times larger than South Africa’s.

On a per-capita basis, South Africa’s GDP numbers are three times larger than Nigeria’s.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

Economies are dynamic things; they grow, they shrink, they add new sectors and technologies and people’s behaviours change”

And Nigerian financial analyst Bismarck Rewane called the revisions “a vanity”.

He added: “The Nigerian population is not better off tomorrow because of that announcement. It doesn’t put more money in the bank, more food in their stomach. It changes nothing.”

Rebasing is carried out so that a nation’s GDP statistics give the most up-to-date picture of an economy as possible.

Most countries do it at least every three years or so, but Nigeria had not updated the components in its GDP base year since 1990.

Then, the country had one telecoms operator with around 300,000 phone lines. Now it has a whole mobile phone industry with tens of millions of subscribers.

Likewise, 24 years ago there was only one airline, and now there are many.

International aid donors are keen for more African countries to undertake this process regularly because it enables them to make better decisions when it comes to aid.

 

 

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    The world's top economies may agree to set an ambitious target for faster global growth at a weekend meeting in Sydney, where major central banks are also being urged to coordinate policies to avoid "surprises" that could further roil emerging markets. Opening the two-day meeting of the Group of 20…
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    To understand why many of China's small property developers are struggling, look no further than Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate. The once little-known regional developer is now on the brink of becoming one of China's biggest real estate bankruptcies in recent memory. As China's property bubble shows signs of deflating in…
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  • 40
    China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of…
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  • 38
    The World Economic Forum, famous for its annual Davos convention in Switzerland, has put out a new report identifying the top technological trends for the coming year.   "Technology has become perhaps the greatest agent of change in the modern world," writes WEF's Noubar Afeyan. "While never without risk, positive technological breakthroughs…
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China Money Rate Set for Biggest Weekly Decline in Three Months

China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements.

The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of 11:06 a.m. in Shanghai, according to a weighted average from the National Interbank Funding Center. That’s the biggest decline since the five days ended Dec. 27. The rate fell 111 basis points today, the most since March 6.

http://www.bloomberg.com/

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Near-bankrupt #Chinese property firm offers lesson in lending risks

To understand why many of China’s small property developers are struggling, look no further than Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate.

The once little-known regional developer is now on the brink of becoming one of China’s biggest real estate bankruptcies in recent memory.

As China’s property bubble shows signs of deflating in some areas – in peripheral neighborhoods in lower-tier cities – privately held developers like Zhejiang Xingrun are falling by the wayside, victims of a toxic combination of unjustified optimism about the property market and sky-high interest rates.

http://www.reuters.com/

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    For 31-year old Beijing resident Wang Yuanzhi, talk about a bubble in Chinese property is not something to be too concerned about. "If you look at the real estate market in China, it has already seen a golden decade of extreme fast growth. There will still be room for growth…
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  • 58
    11 Ugly Charts That Confirm China's Dramatic Slowdown During the National People's Congress, China's policymakers announced that it would target 7.5% GDP growth target for 2014. This is down from 7.7% growth in 2013, and the recent data shows that the economy is clearly off to a slower start to…
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    China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of…
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  • 56
    China's central bank is prepared to take its strongest action since 2012 to loosen monetary policy if economic growth slows further, by cutting the amount of cash that banks must keep as reserves, sources involved in internal policy discussions say. A cut would be triggered if growth slips below 7.5…
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Mobius Says Emerging Selloff to Deepen

“The negative sentiment is pretty much in place so you can expect a lot more selling,” Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $50 billion in developing nations as an executive chairman at Templeton, said in an interview from Rio de Janeiro today. “We are looking but actually not buying at this stage. Prices can come down or take time to stabilize.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-07/templeton-s-mark-mobius-says-emerging-markets-selloff-to-deepen.htmlMobius

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    One MINT country show us we need to follow them.   Nigeria has "rebased" its gross domestic product (GDP) data, which has pushed it above South Africa as the continent's biggest economy. Nigerian GDP now includes previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production.…
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    China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of…
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How Fragile are Emerging Markets?

Emerging-market equities and exchange rates are again under severe downward pressure, but are the underlying economies really as fragile as global traders seem to fear? The short answer, for a few, is probably “yes,” but for most, “not just yet.”

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/kenneth-rogoff-looks-beneath-the-turmoil-roiling-emerging-economies–equity-and-currency-markets

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    “The negative sentiment is pretty much in place so you can expect a lot more selling,” Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $50 billion in developing nations as an executive chairman at Templeton, said in an interview from Rio de Janeiro today. “We are looking but actually not buying at…
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    One MINT country show us we need to follow them.   Nigeria has "rebased" its gross domestic product (GDP) data, which has pushed it above South Africa as the continent's biggest economy. Nigerian GDP now includes previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production.…
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Emerging markets selloff bruises big-name funds

The plunge in emerging markets is taking a bite out of the performance of funds managed by some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including BlackRock, Brevan Howard and T. Rowe Price.

Some mutual funds are already down 10 percent so far this year, thanks to declining stocks and currencies. And that drop has intensified selling pressure as investors rush to pull more money out.

“It has been a disappointing beginning of the year,” said Will Landers, a BlackRock equity portfolio manager with close to $4 billion in assets under management. The BlackRock Latin America Fund is off 10 percent this year.

http://www.reuters.com/

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Don’t Lump All Emerging Markets in Together

One reason for global market weakness is investors’ fears that emerging market economies may be heading for a broad crisis, sparked by higher U.S. interest rates and slowing growth in China.

Much of the analysis in the last few days has focused on why these nations are less exposed to a financial meltdown than during the Asian crisis of the late 1990s. A major reason is lower overall foreign debt exposures.

Source URL

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