Tag Archives: europe

World turbulences ahead ? #IMF #Forex #Economy

10 years ago, the global economy seemed to be on the mend. Interests rates down to 1%, UK was in its 12th year of uninterrupted growth, China was a part of WTO and everyone firmly believed in self correcting markets. The monetary system crash was unforeseen and a surprise. IMF confessed that it had been guilty of groupthink and played down the signs of trouble.
2014 is not that different from 2004. The global economy is mobile again, with the cheap money available.

Some optimists believe that the period of low inflation and continual expansion has returned after the hiatus caused by the crash. Recessions are rare and countries eventually revert to a trend rate of growth. This could either be the start of another long global upswing, another case of groupthink. Maybe the IMF is yet again choosing to ignore the signs in 2014 which might lead to another turbulence. 5 of such sings are

  1. The global economy’s dependency on exceptionally low interest rates. The trough in interest rates has been lower in each subsequent cycle and they are now barely above zero.  
  2. The bond market crashed as the world’s central banks cautiously try to return monetary policy to a more normal setting with a modest and gradual increase in official interest rates. 
  3. Everyone relied on Shale Oil and Gas to be our next source of energy. However 15 major companies have written off $35bn in investment since the boom began. Getting oil and gas out of the ground is proving costlier and less profitable than expected
  4. the risk of resource conflicts within the next five to 10 years unless the international community gets serious about dealing with global warming. The catalogue of extreme weather events – from floods in the UK to droughts in Australia – is growing. 
  5. Rising inequality – a tiny elite now grabbing the lion’s share of global growth. At the bottom, and increasingly for those in the middle as well, it is a case of wage squeezes, high unemployment, debt, austerity and poverty. The 85 richest people on the planet own the same wealth as half the world’s population but seem oblivious to the risk of widespread social unrest.

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  • 73
    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
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  • 71
    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
    Tags: high, usa, uk, europe, economy
  • 68
    För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
    Tags: usa, uk, europe, economy
  • 62
    The pound rose the most in two months versus the dollar this week as manufacturing and production data signaled the U.K. recovery is on track, boosting bets the Bank of England will raise interest rate and is going to nudge higher throughout the course of this month The pound gained…
    Tags: rate, interest, uk, usa, europe, economy
  • 60
    If trade and financial sanctions were imposed on Russia, the cost to the UK might well exceed the cost to Russia. That is presumably why the Foreign Office wrote - in a document carelessly (or deliberately?) displayed yesterday for the lenses of photographers - that "the UK should not support…
    Tags: uk, well, usa, economy

How Racist is France? #France

There has been a sudden spike recently in expressions of racism in French public life—one that has provoked a national debate and may lead to legal action this week. It began in October 2013, when a candidate for the right-wing National Front likened Christiane Taubira, the Justice Minister, who is black, to a monkey, pairing her photograph with one of a chimpanzee on a Facebook page. Although the leader of the National Front, Marine Le Pen, forced the candidate to withdraw, the attacks continued. During some of the protests against France’s new gay-marriage law (which Taubira, as Justice Minister, pushed), the crowds chanted “Taubira, t’es foutue, les Français sont dans la rue.” (“Taubira, you’re fucked, the French are in the street!”) At one rally, a twelve-year-old child symbolically presented Taubira with a banana.

 

This does not appear to be an isolated case. The National Commission for the Rights of Man (C.N.C.D.H.), which has been charged by the French parliament to monitor incidents of racism in France, noted a twenty-three-per-cent increase in incidents of racism, Islamophobia, and anti-Semitism in 2012, and a five-fold increase over the past twenty years.

The Taubira affair has set off something of a national debate on the origins and responsibility for this ugly recrudescence of racism. Until fairly recently, the debate around prejudice in France has concentrated on the difficulties of integrating France’s sizeable Muslim minority, estimated at between four and six million people, or less than ten per cent of the population.

During the campaign, the center-right singled out Taubira as a reason to fear the election of the left. Taubira, who has a long and impressive political career, became one of the most visible members of Hollande’s government.

Joan Wallach Scott, an American scholar at the Institute for Advanced Studies, at Princeton, argues in her book “The Politics of the Veil” that the Republican values of egalité and laicité were historically entangled in the racist roots of French colonialism. The idea that people of all races could become French was coupled with an implicit (and often explicit) assumption that they came from inferior cultures, and needed to submit to France’s mission civilatrice to be equal. The French, in her view, need to learn to “negotiate difference.”

Egalité makes France officially color-blind: the government is not allowed to count, let alone consider, whether individuals belong to a racial, ethnic, or religious minority. And yet, the reality is that the Algerian workers who were encouraged to come to France in the nineteen-forties and fifties were placed in temporary housing on the periphery of France’s cities, and these geographically segregated banlieues are where later immigrants have continued to live.

Numerous studies show that job applicants with such addresses or with “foreign” names are much more likely to be rejected out of hand, regardless of their professional qualifications. Many in France continue to consider as immigrants people of North African or African descent whose families have lived in the country for generations, and who are French citizens. Fifty-five per cent consider Muslims to be a “group apart,” and twenty-six per cent still consider Jews to be a “group apart,” surprising given that Jewish immigration is very old and highly assimilated.

 

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  • 72
    Can you guess where most Chinese nationals are in Europe ? The answer is Italy. Who lives where in Europe? Nationalities across the continent mapped People of many different countries are now living in Europe, with the continent's residents coming everywhere from Jamaica to Tuvalu. Using data from 2011 censuses we have mapped…
    Tags: europe, people
  • 70
    There seems to be an obvious solution to rising inequality: higher taxes. But there's an inconvenient fact here. The way most advanced, industrial countries have made real gains on inequality is through relatively regressive taxes that fund programs that reduce inequality. In fact, America's tax system is already unusually progressive by…
    Tags: europe
  • 69
    Putin’s preferred outcome in Ukraine is to engineer a financial and political collapse that destabilizes the country, and for which he can disclaim responsibility, rather than a military victory that leaves him in possession of – and responsible for – part of Ukraine. The financial collapse of which Soros had been…
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  • 68
    Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors. The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The…
    Tags: europe
  • 67
    The following article will appear in The New York Review’s November 20 issue. Europe is facing a challenge from Russia to its very existence. Neither the European leaders nor their citizens are fully aware of this challenge or know how best to deal with it. I attribute this mainly to…
    Tags: europe

No reason to again give #France more time to cut deficit – Rehn

There is no reason to further extend a European Union deadline for France to cut its budget deficit, the EU’s top economic official said on Saturday, adding policy-makers should have learnt the lessons of the debt crisis and stuck to agreed rules.

In June last year Paris got two more years, until 2015, to bring its budget shortfall below the EU ceiling of 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), from a 4 percent gap the European Commission expects it to have this year.

But after a government reshuffle this week, France said that while it agreed the deficit should fall, it wanted to discuss the deadline again as slower cuts would help the economy grow.

http://uk.reuters.com/

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    The European Debt Crisis Visualized http://www.bloomberg.com/
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  • 77
    Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors. The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The…
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  • 74
    "There are no facts, only interpretations”, Friedrich Nietzsche once said. One needn’t be a nihilist or a relativist to be bemused at the latest radical rewriting of history from our official number-crunchers. Everything we thought we knew about the British economy’s performance over the past 15 years or so now…
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  • 71
      Low euro is like a "deflation" of the Euro. Is this good or bad ? Lets talk about devaluation. The idea being that the goods the nation has to offer will cost less with devaluation. Good idea, right? Many countries have resorted to this economic maneuver in order to increase exports.…
    Tags: economic, government, cut, europe, economy
  • 69
      Feb 8 (Reuters) - If Greece is forced out of the euro zone, other countries will inevitably follow and the currency bloc will collapse, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday. Greece's new leftist government is trying to re-negotiate its debt repayments and has begun to roll back…
    Tags: debt, european, europe, government, economy

Watch up #France ! Spanish 5-Year #Yield Drops Below U.S. for First Time Since 2007

Watch up France !

Spanish 5-Year Yield Drops Below U.S. for First Time Since 2007.

What will happens when you can buy Italian debt.

France is not doing enough right now. Spain and Italy doing lot.

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  • 41
    October 22, 2014 Santiago, Chile The US government’s debt is getting close to reaching another round number—$18 trillion. It currently stands at more than $17.9 trillion. But what does that really mean? It’s such an abstract number that it’s hard to imagine it. Can you genuinely understand it beyond just…
    Tags: debt, year
  • 30
    Picking the best debt-ceiling explainer is a very subjective task. Do you like charts? Then you'll probably like to have the debt ceiling explained in one chart.  Do you like movies? This one will explain the debt ceiling in 90 seconds.  Do you like cheese from Denmark? Then you will probably like…
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Ready for Webcast of the #ECB press conference 3 April 2014?

Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 3 April 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m.CET:

  • Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB.
  • Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, and to Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the EC

 

URL http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/webcast/html/webcast_140403.en.html

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    Mario Draghi has set the bar high for the European Central Bank’s next meeting Thursday. The bank president’s warning about reduced inflation expectations, made in a speech on Aug. 22, fanned hopes that the ECB may announce additional stimulus measures to boost economic growth and prices. A report Friday showing…
    Tags: ecb, bank, draghi, meeting, europe, president, central, mario, european
  • 75
    Runners have target times, golfers judge themselves by their swing, while Mario Draghi watches a technical measure of inflation expectations used by financial markets. Just one problem: it suggests the European Central Bank president is not achieving his objective – and that markets’ fears of eurozone deflation are mounting. Since…
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  • 73
    Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 6 February 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET: Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB. Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President…
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  • 69
    Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 4 September 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET: Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB. Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President…
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  • 64
    Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 6 March 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET: Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB. Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario…
    Tags: ecb, president, mario, draghi, press, conference, session, registered, answer, question

Two-Speed Recovery: US vs. EU

The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new high had been reached since 2007. Real consumer spending has hit a new high, too, and auto sales are at levels not seen since before the financial crisis. Millions of Americans are still searching for work and suffering financial hardship, but on average, by the broadest measures of economic performance, America’s Great Recession is over.

 

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/

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  • 90
    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
    Tags: fairly, average, usa, uk, europe, economy
  • 84
    För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
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  • 77
    If trade and financial sanctions were imposed on Russia, the cost to the UK might well exceed the cost to Russia. That is presumably why the Foreign Office wrote - in a document carelessly (or deliberately?) displayed yesterday for the lenses of photographers - that "the UK should not support…
    Tags: financial, uk, usa, economy
  • 73
    The pound rose the most in two months versus the dollar this week as manufacturing and production data signaled the U.K. recovery is on track, boosting bets the Bank of England will raise interest rate and is going to nudge higher throughout the course of this month The pound gained…
    Tags: uk, usa, europe, economy
  • 71
    10 years ago, the global economy seemed to be on the mend. Interests rates down to 1%, UK was in its 12th year of uninterrupted growth, China was a part of WTO and everyone firmly believed in self correcting markets. The monetary system crash was unforeseen and a surprise. IMF…
    Tags: uk, economy, high, usa, europe

The European Debt Crisis Visualized

The European Debt Crisis Visualized

http://www.bloomberg.com/

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  • 87
    There is no reason to further extend a European Union deadline for France to cut its budget deficit, the EU's top economic official said on Saturday, adding policy-makers should have learnt the lessons of the debt crisis and stuck to agreed rules. In June last year Paris got two more…
    Tags: european, economy, debt, crisis, europe
  • 86
    Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors. The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The…
    Tags: debt, economy, europe
  • 79
    "There are no facts, only interpretations”, Friedrich Nietzsche once said. One needn’t be a nihilist or a relativist to be bemused at the latest radical rewriting of history from our official number-crunchers. Everything we thought we knew about the British economy’s performance over the past 15 years or so now…
    Tags: economy, europe
  • 78
      Feb 8 (Reuters) - If Greece is forced out of the euro zone, other countries will inevitably follow and the currency bloc will collapse, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday. Greece's new leftist government is trying to re-negotiate its debt repayments and has begun to roll back…
    Tags: debt, european, europe, economy
  • 76
      Low euro is like a "deflation" of the Euro. Is this good or bad ? Lets talk about devaluation. The idea being that the goods the nation has to offer will cost less with devaluation. Good idea, right? Many countries have resorted to this economic maneuver in order to increase exports.…
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#EUR/USD fresh highs after breaking through 1.3650 resistance and 50DMA at 1.3655

EUR/USD fresh highs after breaking through 1.3650 resistance and 50DMA at 1.3655

 

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  • 75
      For investors, the key to 2017 will not be Brexit, nor the French elections but rather USA bond yields. If the 10-year yield breaches 3pc we would expect major dislocations in many markets and a huge repricing of assets across the globe.
    Tags: usa, trading
  • 74
    At first glance, the eurozone economy seems like it might finally be on the mend. True, according to some estimates, the eurozone economy may now be growing at an annual rate of 1.6%, up from 0.9% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2014. With the eurozone economy 2% smaller than it…
    Tags: trading, europe
  • 72
    After the U.S. imposed a fine of US$9 billion on BNP Paribas as the latter had helped countries like Sudan to avoid sanctions launched by the U.S., French finance minister Michel Sapin appealed that rebalancing of currencies used in international payments is possible and necessary; BNP's punishment case should raise…
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  • 70
    The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-14801324 "The Japanese example with yen intervention teaches us that intervention can work in the very short term but changing…
    Tags: trading, europe

Central Bankers wants KISS

This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both made welcome moves toward more simplicity. Specifically, they recast the “forward guidance” they’d previously given investors about their intentions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/

P:S

Definition of KISS

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  • 70
    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
    Tags: uk, europe, economy
  • 68
    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
    Tags: uk, europe, economy
  • 65
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  • 64
    (Source http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/david-blanchflower/david-blanchflower-we-should-fear-deflation--not-welcome-it-9986726.html ) The UK isn’t in deflation yet. While central bankers know what to do about stopping inflation, they don’t know what to do about halting deflation. The Swiss National Bank last week abandoned its attempt to defend a currency floor, which caused a sharp appreciation in its currency, which…
    Tags: uk, economy, bank, central
  • 64
    The European Debt Crisis Visualized http://www.bloomberg.com/
    Tags: http://www.bloomberg.com, europe, economy

How Investors Can Play Europe in 2014

Europe is back. In 2013, the economies of the Continent picked themselves up off the mat, many buoyed by the continuing pledge that the European Central Bank and its president, Mario Draghi, would do “whatever it takes”

Source URL 

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    None of my tickers are showing much action today. Yen crosses are down modestly but nothing compared to the volatility we’ve seen over the past few days. The euro tried the upside a few times today and will close out the day with some small gains but tomorrow the ECB…
    Tags: draghi
  • 82
    Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 4 September 2014 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET: Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB. Question and answer session. Registered journalists pose questions to Mario Draghi, President…
    Tags: mario, draghi, president, central, bank, european
  • 70
    The Swiss National Bank's foreign exchange reserves inched higher in August, data showed on Friday. The SNB held 453.799 billion Swiss francs in foreign currency at the end of August, compared with 453.353 in July, revised from an originally reported 453.391 billion, preliminary data calculated according to the standards of…
    Tags: bank, central
  • 68
    Can you guess where most Chinese nationals are in Europe ? The answer is Italy. Who lives where in Europe? Nationalities across the continent mapped People of many different countries are now living in Europe, with the continent's residents coming everywhere from Jamaica to Tuvalu. Using data from 2011 censuses we have mapped…
    Tags: europe, continent, european
  • 66
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    Tags: european, europe, president