Tag Archives: qe

Some points from Yellen’s Debut

Janet Yellen made her first public comments as Federal Reserve Chair in a grueling, nearly day-long, testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.  Her testimony made clear that we should expect a high degree of policy continuity.  Indeed, she said so explicitly.  The taper is still on, but so too is the expectation of near-zero interest rates into 2015.  Data will need to get a lot more interesting in one direction or the other for the Fed to alter from its current path.

http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2014/02/yellens-debut-as-chair.html

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    Janet Yellen led her first monetary policy meeting as chair last week. But with Yellen’s emphasis so far on consensus and continuity, the key news from the Fed last week wasn’t anything Janet Yellen said, but what Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein said at the International Research Forum on…
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    Here’s what to look for when Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee today in her first public remarks since becoming Federal Reserve chairman on Feb. 3. Yellen’s prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 a.m., and the hearing will begin at 10 a.m. Yellen plans to speak…
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    This past week marked the annual gathering of bankers, financial officials, and other economic experts hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. On Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank head Mario Draghi both spoke; in a slow week for the markets, these…
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    U.S. Treasury yields and other interest rates increased in the months leading up to the Federal Reserve’s December 2013 decision to cut back its large-scale bond purchases. This increase in rates probably at least partly reflected changes in what bond investors expected regarding future monetary policy. Recent research on this…
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Bitcoin new safe heaven ?

The lack of trust in the custodians of fiat money has provided a fertile context for the rise of Bitcoin, the ultimate digital alternative store of value as against mainstream, central bank managed currencies like the US dollar, sterling and the euro.

Ever since advanced market central banks began rolling the printing presses, the warnings from various quarters foretelling the implosion of fiat currencies have been getting louder and louder.

For International Monetary Fund (IMF) CEO Christine Lagarde, the unconventional measures taken by central bankers – such as the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) and zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and the ECB’s Long Term Refinancing Operation – have been key to preventing a re-run of the Great Depression.

http://www.economywatch.com/features/can-bitcoins-be-a-global-reserve-currency.07-02.html

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    The European Central Bank announced some measures to ease monetary policy two weeks ago. The euro had been on a downtrend since May and by these measures the ECB increased its support to the economy. The result? Two weeks later, EUR/USD stabilized just above 1.35. This week’s Eurozone economic calendar…
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    Very low inflation poses a mounting threat to the economic stability of the eurozone. The rate of consumer price inflation has been below 1 per cent since October, and hence far below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of just below 2 per cent. This highlights the degree of weakness…
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    The world’s major currencies, which had traded in a relatively stable range, are now in motion -- buffeted by different regional growth and interest rates as well as a simmering brew of geopolitical tensions. Differences are particularly noticeable between the U.S. and Europe, and how far apart currencies in those…
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Tomorrow the ECB decision will surely bring some volatility.

None of my tickers are showing much action today. Yen crosses are down modestly but nothing compared to the volatility we’ve seen over the past few days.

FX moves

The euro tried the upside a few times today and will close out the day with some small gains but tomorrow the ECB decision will surely bring some volatility.

Draghi & Co can opt to do nothing or take action in three different ways:

  1. A 10-15 basis point cut in the main refi rate
  2. Switching to unsterilized bond purchases (QE)
  3. Negative deposit rates

The legality of option #2 is questionable. Any of those move would spark euro selling, partially because it implies more future action.

Ten days ago, the market was comfortable with a wait-and-see decision but soft inflation readings have put pressure on the ECB to act.

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    Germany's Constitutional Court will refer a complaint against the European Central Bank's flagship "unlimited"  bond-buying plan to the European Court, removing the prospect of it curbing the program. The court said on Friday there was good reason to think the scheme "exceeds the European Central Bank's monetary policy mandate and thus…
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    The European Central Bank is poised to impose negative interest rates on its overnight depositors, seeking to cajole banks into lending instead and to prevent the euro zone falling into Japan-like deflation. At its meeting on Thursday, ECB policymakers may also launch a loan program for banks with strings attached…
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