None of my tickers are showing much action today. Yen crosses are down modestly but nothing compared to the volatility we’ve seen over the past few days.
The euro tried the upside a few times today and will close out the day with some small gains but tomorrow the ECB decision will surely bring some volatility.
Draghi & Co can opt to do nothing or take action in three different ways:
- A 10-15 basis point cut in the main refi rate
- Switching to unsterilized bond purchases (QE)
- Negative deposit rates
The legality of option #2 is questionable. Any of those move would spark euro selling, partially because it implies more future action.
Ten days ago, the market was comfortable with a wait-and-see decision but soft inflation readings have put pressure on the ECB to act.
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