5 Simple Notions that Help Solve Problems

Here are five simple notions, found in Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger, that Charlie Munger, the Billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, finds helpful in solving problems.

1. Simplify

2. Numerical Fluency

3. Invert

4. Study The Basics

5. Lollapalooza Effects

http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/

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Is Silicon Valley Funding the Wrong Stuff?

Social networks that allow you to send only the message “Yo” to your contacts. Food-delivery services valued at $400 million. Startups that deliver rolls of quarters to your home (just $27 for $20 in change!).

It isn’t hard, looking at a lineup like this, to conclude that Silicon Valley has jumped the shark. The entire Bay Area appears to have given up on solving anything but its own problems: those afflicting the same 20-somethings who are building these startups.

That’s a pretty cynical take on what’s going on in technology. And what about Google or Facebook or Uber, all of which have transformed or probably will transform entire industries?

But, to my surprise, the partners of one Silicon Valley venture-capital firm made the very same case to me: That their kind had lost its way—and, in the world of startups, money wasn’t flowing where it should anymore.

“Do you believe there is more innovation today than 20 years ago?” asks Yatin Mundkur, a partner at Artiman, in Palo Alto, Calif.

Mr. Mundkur doesn’t mean innovation in the areas of same-day delivery or “anonymish” social networks that seem to have more novelty value than staying power. Both of those categories are red-hot right now.

http://online.wsj.com/

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The Inside Story of How PayPal Ousted an Early Rival

In the early days of PayPal, its most important rival was Billpoint, a rival payment system that was a joint venture between eBay–PayPal’s most important partner–and Wells Fargo Bank. Consider the situation PayPal faced: the vast majority of its business at the time consisted of handling payments for eBay auctions, yet eBay itself owned a competitive payments business (Billpoint) that it was promoting to every single eBay user. To outside observers, the circumstances must have looked grim.

Yet as we know, PayPal triumphed over Billpoint, leading eBay to purchase PayPal for over $1.5 billion. One of the key factors was PayPal’s superior use of network intelligence. Reid led this intelligence-gathering effort for PayPal (he was executive vice president at the time) and asked all the members of the team, from executives to individual engineers, to use their network intelligence to learn about Billpoint’s strategy. Billpoint’s team, on the other hand, completely ignored the potential for network intelligence to provide insights into PayPal’s strategy.

From conversations with other companies that were building on the eBay platform such as Honesty.com and AuctionWatch (now Vendio), PayPal employees learned two key facts. First, the Billpoint team was convinced that the key success factor for an internet payments system was a deep banking relationship to combat fraud. Billpoint’s leadership felt that the Wells Fargo relationship represented an overwhelming advantage over PayPal.

Second, contrary to Billpoint’s belief, the companies on the eBay platform (and their customers) didn’t consider a deep banking relationship that relevant. They placed a far greater value on ease of use, especially in e-mail communications. Fraud prevention was a hygiene factor, not a driving force. None of this information was public, but none of it was secret either.

http://www.inc.com/ilan-mochari/reid-hoffman-excerpt.html

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Watchup :: Argentina to meet again with debt mediator, bonds rise

(Reuters) – Argentina said on Tuesday it would meet with a mediator for the second time this week in the country’s dispute with “holdout” investors, lifting market hopes for a deal needed to avoid another painful debt default.

With the economy already in recession, President Cristina Fernandez’s cash-strapped government has until July 30 to reach an agreement with hedge funds who refused to participate in the country’s earlier debt restructuring and have been suing for full repayment of sovereign bonds which Argentina defaulted on in 2002.

On Argentina’s local over-the-counter market, benchmark Discount bonds ARDISCD=RASL rose 1.60 percent to 88.65 while Par bonds ARPARD=RASL were up 1.32 percent to 49.90. Traders cited optimism over the talks as the reason for the climb.

Argentina’s cabinet chief Jorge Capitanich did not say whether the holdout funds led by Elliott Management Corp and Aurelius Capital Management would participate in Friday’s meeting. There was no immediate comment from the funds.

Other holdout investors with over $6 billion worth of unrestructured Argentine debt have started organizing negotiating committees, encouraged by Buenos Aires’ stated desire to settle with 100 percent of its creditors.

The government has said that settling with funds led by Elliott would carry the risk of opening Argentina to a slew of suits from other holdouts.

On Monday, Argentina’s Economy Minister Axel Kicillof spent four hours discussing the case in New York with the mediator, Daniel Pollack, who was appointed by U.S. District Judge Thomas Griesa to find common ground in the years-long dispute.

“It was agreed to continue this meeting on Friday,” Capitanich said. “It has been an intense dialogue.”

Kicillof flew back to Buenos Aires on Tuesday and described the session with Pollack as “an important advance”.

“We will go back on Friday,” Kicillof told reporters.

In the last few months Kiciloff has settled long-standing disputes with the Paris Club of creditor nations and Spanish oil major Repsol (REP.MC) in a bid to lure investors back to Argentina.

But his stance toward the holdouts was anything but conciliatory on Tuesday. “They are trying to extort a sovereign country,” he said in a statement on the presidential website.

Without a deal this month, a court ruling by Judge Griesa would prevent the country from making coupon payments to creditors who accepted a large writedown on their debt holdings after 2002. That would put Argentina in default.

PAYMENT IN LIMBO

More than 92 percent of creditors accepted less than 30 cents on the dollar in restructurings worked out in 2005 and 2010. The holdouts shunned those terms and sued for full repayment plus interest, but they say they are willing to negotiate with the government.

Judge Griesa blocked a June 30 coupon payment that Argentina tried to make on the restructured bonds, triggering the start of a 30-day grace period ending July 30.

Argentina is being pushed into talks after refusing for years to negotiate with the holdouts, portraying them as “vultures” circling the corpse of the country’s 2002 default as most bought the bonds in the secondary market at a discount.

Fernandez’s government says Griesa overstepped his powers by blocking the coupon payment.

Argentina published a two-page legal notice in the New York Times on Tuesday, saying it “duly deposited the amounts of interest due on the New Debt Securities issued within the framework of the 2005 and 2010 Sovereign Exchange Offers.”

It said that Bank of New York Mellon, the trustee bank, is required to distribute those funds to bondholders, calling BONY Mellon’s failure to do so a “violation of its obligations”.

BONY Mellon had no comment on the legal notices from the government. A source with direct knowledge of the situation said the bank will file a motion to Judge Griesa on Thursday seeking guidance on what it should do with the money.

(Additional reporting by Jorge Otaola and Richard Lough in Buenos Aires and Daniel Basesin New York; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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Wall Street’s Worst-Case Scenario: A Run on Bonds

All it takes is a few mouse clicks to buy shares in the Scout Unconstrained Bond Fund (SUBFX), an exchange-traded fund that tracks a concoction of debt tied to the government, financial firms, mortgage pools, and other entities.

And all it takes is a few mouse clicks to sell—something that has begun to worry Wall Street. Since the financial crisis, $900 billion has flowed into bond mutual funds and ETFs such as Scout Unconstrained, bringing the industry’s total holdings to $3 trillion. Fund investors who sell shares get their money back almost immediately, as if they were making a withdrawal from a money-market fund. The bonds that the funds own are far less liquid, often trading in telephone conversations or e-mails between brokers, away from exchanges. If too many people decide to get out of bond funds at the same time, the wave of selling could lead buyers to sit on their hands, bringing the system to a halt.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates near zero to spur borrowing and boost economic activity. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.3 percent, below the Fed’s target of 6.5 percent, and the central bank is curtailing its easy-money policies, reducing the amount of bonds it buys each month and getting closer to raising its benchmark interest rate. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg say rates could rise as soon as the end of this year.

http://www.businessweek.com/

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Future of Music Is a Love Story

Where will the music industry be in 20 years, 30 years, 50 years?

Before I tell you my thoughts on the matter, you should know that you’re reading the opinion of an enthusiastic optimist: one of the few living souls in the music industry who still believes that the music industry is not dying…it’s just coming alive.

There are many (many) people who predict the downfall of music sales and the irrelevancy of the album as an economic entity. I am not one of them. In my opinion, the value of an album is, and will continue to be, based on the amount of heart and soul an artist has bled into a body of work, and the financial value that artists (and their labels) place on their music when it goes out into the marketplace. Piracy, file sharing and streaming have shrunk the numbers of paid album sales drastically, and every artist has handled this blow differently.

In recent years, you’ve probably read the articles about major recording artists who have decided to practically give their music away, for this promotion or that exclusive deal. My hope for the future, not just in the music industry, but in every young girl I meet…is that they all realize their worth and ask for it.

Music is art, and art is important and rare. Important, rare things are valuable. Valuable things should be paid for. It’s my opinion that music should not be free, and my prediction is that individual artists and their labels will someday decide what an album’s price point is. I hope they don’t underestimate themselves or undervalue their art.

http://online.wsj.com/

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A Correction Is Coming

The Dow had broken 17,000, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had touched a record high and was spitting distance from crossing 2,000. Even the small-cap indexes such as the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 have notched new highs. And the Nasdaq, up 255 percent since the March 2009 low, is less than 15 percent away from the record set in the dot-com-era market of 2000.

Despite evidence that new highs are bullish — we don’t get them during bear markets — the commentariat and much of the news media sees this as a matter of great concern. Consider a perusal of this morning headlines:

• “Why the 17,000 Dow is bound to crash

• “With Stocks So High, Should Investors Move to Cash?”

• “5 reasons not to watch for a stock market correction ”

• “What Investors Are Worried About Today ”

Some of these articles make for interesting reading, but they don’t make for especially good investing advice. Why? I can think of three reasons:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-07/a-correction-is-coming

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Larry Page Has A Fascinating View Of The Economy That’s Startlingly Similar To What Keynes Once Predicted

Google CEO Larry Page recently participated in a fireside chat with Khosla Ventures, where among other things he offered his view on the state of the economy and labor.

People are endlessly musing on the future of the labor market these days, given the idea that robots can perform more and more jobs that were once thought to be the sole domain of humans, and because tech-enabled productivity has enabled a few lucky people to reap huge fortunes with relatively few workers.

In light of this, Page wonders why everyone is working so much, and he suggests that perhaps people don’t need to work themselves to the bone, since it’s relatively easy for a modern society to fulfill most people’s basic necessities.

Here’s part of his comments:

I totally believe we should be living in a time of abundance, like Peter Diamandis’ book.

If you really think about the things that you need to make yourself happy — housing, security, opportunities for your kids — anthropologists have been identifying these things. It’s not that hard for us to provide those things. The amount of resources we need to do that, the amount of work that actually needs to go into that is pretty small. I’m guessing less than 1% at the moment.

So the idea that everyone needs to work frantically to meet people’s needs is just not true. I do think there’s a problem that we don’t recognize that. I think there’s also a social problem that a lot of people aren’t happy if they don’t have anything to do. So we need to give people things to do. We need to feel like you’re needed, wanted and have something productive to do. But I think the mix with that and the industries we actually need and so on are– there’s not a good correspondence. That’s why we’re busy destroying the environment and other things, maybe we don’t need to be doing.

Page goes on to say that the solution may be work sharing, basically everyone doing a little less to help ensure that everyone has a job to do.

His thinking actually echoes the economist John Maynard Keynes, who envisioned this kind of future in his paper The Economic Possibilities Of Our Grandchildren. He anticipated, writing in 1930, that in the not so distant future, our absolute human needs would be easily met, and that how to deal with our leisure time and relative needs would be the pressing issue of the day. He even anticipated shorter work hours as a way to deal with this “problem.”

Here’s a key passage. You can just read the bolded parts if you want to get the point:

Thus for the first time since his creation man will be faced with his real, his permanent problem-how to use his freedom from pressing economic cares, how to occupy the leisure, which science and compound interest will have won for him, to live wisely and agreeably and well.

The strenuous purposeful money-makers may carry all of us along with them into the lap of economic abundance. But it will be those peoples, who can keep alive, and cultivate into a fuller perfection, the art of life itself and do not sell themselves for the means of life, who will be able to enjoy the abundance when it comes. Yet there is no country and no people, I think, who can look forward to the age of leisure and of abundance without a dread. For we have been trained too long to strive and not to enjoy. It is a fearful problem for the ordinary person, with no special talents, to occupy himself, especially if he no longer has roots in the soil or in custom or in the beloved conventions of a traditional society. To judge from the behaviour and the achievements of the wealthy classes to-day in any quarter of the world, the outlook is very depressing!

For these are, so to speak, our advance guard-those who are spying out the promised land for the rest of us and pitching their camp there. For they have most of them failed disastrously, so it seems to me-those who have an independent income but no associations or duties or ties-to solve the problem which has been set them. I feel sure that with a little more experience we shall use the new-found bounty of nature quite differently from the way in which the rich use it to-day, and will map out for ourselves a plan of life quite otherwise than theirs. For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. We shall do more things for ourselves than is usual with the rich to-day, only too glad to have small duties and tasks and routines. But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!

It all sounds great! Now how to get all of society in a different mentality, where we learn to “enjoy” rather than “strive” is a harder matter.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-page-keynes-2014-7#ixzz36mFE457B

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Stock market is regarded as the leading indicator of the economy

I will let you guess where we are in this “cycle”.

Within a fractional reserve banking system, if the Federal Reserve decreases the discount rate and the rate is lower than the long bond rate by enough of a spread, the banks get motivated to borrow at or close to the  discount rate and loan it to the bond market. 

Fed decreases rates and thus makes money low-cost; then the money goes from the Fed to the banks, and the banks borrow at a low rate; so, they can lend to the risk-free bond market.

As the interest rates drop, the outlook for the net profits of companies gets better, as their largest expenditure, financing, is dropping, too.

Rapidly, a part of the money goes out of the bond market because investors sell bonds for profit and start to invest it in the equity market as a result of the improving outlook for companies. 

Hence the money moves from the Fed to the banks, then to the bond market and to the stock market, and, finally, to the real economy. 

Stock market is regarded as the leading indicator of the economy, while the stock market is the most significant factor of the government’s leading economical indicators, mainly because the liquidity that moves through the whole economy, firstly hits the stock market and then the real economy.

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French finance minister blasts USD dominance

After the U.S. imposed a fine of US$9 billion on BNP Paribas as the latter had helped countries like Sudan to avoid sanctions launched by the U.S., French finance minister Michel Sapin appealed that rebalancing of currencies used in international payments is possible and necessary; BNP’s punishment case should raise the awareness of all nations that it is necessary to use various currencies, Financial Times reported. 

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    Tags: usa, europe
  • 58
    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
    Tags: financial, usa, europe