German model is ruinous for Germany, and deadly for Europe

France may look like the sick of man of Europe, but Germany’s woes run deeper, rooted in mercantilist dogma

The Kaiser Wilhelm Canal in Kiel is crumbling. Last year, the authorities had to close the 60-mile shortcut from the Baltic to the North Sea for two weeks, something that had never happened through two world wars. The locks had failed.

Large ships were forced to go around the Skagerrak, imposing emergency surcharges. The canal was shut again last month because sluice gates were not working, damaged by the constant thrust of propeller blades. It has been a running saga of problems, the result of slashing investment to the bone, and cutting maintenance funds in 2012 from €60m (£47m) a year to €11m.

This is an odd way to treat the busiest waterway in the world, letting through 35,000 ships a year, so vital to the Port of Hamburg. It is odder still given that the German state can borrow funds for five years at an interest rate of 0.15pc. Yet such is the economic policy of Germany, worshipping the false of god of fiscal balance.

The Bundestag is waking up to the economic folly of this. It has approved €260m of funding to refurbish the canal over the next five years. Yet experts say it needs €1bn, one of countless projects crying out for money across the derelict infrastructure of a nation that has forgotten how to invest, sleepwalking into decline.

France may look like the sick of man of Europe, but Germany’s woes run deeper, rooted in mercantilist dogma, the glorification of saving for its own sake, and the corrosive psychology of ageing.

“Germany considers itself the model for the world, but pride comes before the fall,” says Olaf Gersemann, Die Welt’s economics chief, in a new book, The Germany Bubble: the Last Hurrah of a Great Economic Nation.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11150306/German-model-is-ruinous-for-Germany-and-deadly-for-Europe.html

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Finance: ‘We Can Reinvent the Entire Thing’

Twitter. Facebook. AirBnB. Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the $4.2 billion venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, has backed them all — along with dozens of others. His latest project? Upending finance. Bloomberg Markets magazine interviewed Andreessen at the firm’s headquarters in Menlo Park, California.

Out With the Old

“We have a chance to rebuild the system. Financial transactions are just numbers; it’s just information. You shouldn’t need 100,000 people and prime Manhattan real estate and giant data centers full of mainframe computers from the 1970s to give you the ability to do an online payment.

‘‘You would not today, starting from scratch, invent any of these financial businesses in the same way. To me, it’s all about unbundling the banks. There are regulatory arbitrage opportunities every step of the way. If the regulators are going to regulate banks, then you’ll have nonbank entities that spring up to do the things that banks can’t do. Bank regulation tends to backfire, and of late that means consumer lending is getting unbundled.”

In With the New

“We’re not going to go backward. When people start doing things a better way, it kind of doesn’t matter what the old way was. You can find people who will say that this is all just an arbitrage on the current trouble in the financial system, and I’m sure the big traditional banks will fight back and try to get things outlawed.

‘‘But think about the scenario of a loan officer talking to a prospective client. To software people, that looks like voodoo. The idea that you can sit across the table from somebody and get a read on their character is just nonsense.

‘‘Lots of industries are changing in a similar way. There’s been a qualitative approach, and now, there’s a quantitative approach. Everybody who grew up in the qualitative approach hates the quantitative approach and considers it a giant threat.”

Big Data

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/andreessen-on-finance-we-can-reinvent-the-entire-thing-.html

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Bond investing isn’t about forecasting

The best way to sell anything is to tell a story — and bond funds are no exception to this rule. When you talk to bond-fund managers, they love to talk about their thesis, or their strategy — some grand vision of the world which, they hope, you will find compelling. If you do find it compelling, then you’re much more likely to invest your money with them.

Why you would behave in such a manner is simple: if the manager is right about where the world is headed, then, goes the theory, that manager is going to outperform and make lots of money.

Similarly, if a bond fund starts underperforming, then the storytellers tend immediately to jump on his grand pronouncements about the state of the world, because his big macro view was surely the thing to blame.

Paul Krugman, for instance, wrote four separate posts devoted to the thesis that the fall of Bill Gross is in large part a function of Gross being wrong (and Krugman being right) about interest-rate behavior in a liquidity-trap environment. Joe Weisenthal agrees: he says that Gross’s worldview, circa 2011 or so, “ended up costing Gross his role in the company he created”.

Even in the wake of Gross’s departure, his macro view continues to cast a long shadow of Pimco. Landon Thomas, for instance, spent over a thousand words on Thursday examining whether it’s smart for Pimco to retain Gross’s “new neutral” thesis:

Pimco’s new management team is doubling down on their departed leader’s economic mantra. And in so doing they are making the case that the Pimco bond funds that have made investments based on this economic approach — with some performing better than others — will not soon change their strategy.

https://medium.com/bull-market/bond-investing-isnt-about-forecasting-3f2298043c9e

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BIG MARKET NEWS WEEK 05 Oct – 11 Oct 2014

Canada Monday, Oct. 6, 2014 16:00  

CAD    Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Sep)
Japan Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 05:00  

JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Japan Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 n/a
JPY   BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Australia Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 05:30  

AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
Australia Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 05:30
AUD RBA Rate Statement
Switzerland  

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014

09:15
CHF   Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
United Kingdom Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 10:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)
Canada Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014 14:30  

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Aug)
United States Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2014 20:00  

USD FOMC Minutes
Australia Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 02:30  

AUD Employment Change s.a. (Sep)
Australia Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 02:30
AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Sep)
United Kingdom Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 13:00
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (Oct 9)
United Kingdom Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 13:00
GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility (Oct)
United States Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014  

14:30

 

USD Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 3)
Canada Friday, Oct. 10, 2014 14:30
CAD   Net Change in Employment (Sep)
Canada Friday, Oct. 10, 2014 14:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (Sep)

 

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What the RBA can learn from the RBNZ

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Graeme Wheeler has done it again; defying expectations to intervene in a market to overcome a problem he couldn’t fix with conventional monetary policy.

Fresh from creating a macro-prudential tool to restrict the growth of riskier mortgage lending, Wheeler this week confirmed that he had intervened in the currency market to push the New Zealand dollar down.

The central bank quietly confirmed on Monday that it sold a net $NZ521 million worth of the currency in August and had bolstered its foreign exchange intervention capacity by $NZ938 million to $NZ9.558 billion.

The confirmation followed a detailed “final, final warning” statement from Wheeler last Thursday, that explained why the New Zealand dollar was extremely and unjustifiably high and why intervention was being considered.

Even so, the confirmation surprised many in the market who had become inured to the Governor’s many warnings about the currency and his previous apparent ambivalence about intervention.

The New Zealand dollar fell more than a cent on the news and has fallen more than four cents to around US78c since Wheeler’s final warning last week.

It’s still early days, but Wheeler’s second big intervention in his two years as Governor appears to have been effective.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has faced many of the same problems faced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over the last year and has been one step ahead with policy innovations to deal with them.

Just as in Australia, New Zealand’s house price inflation threatened last year to gallop out of control as leveraged investors used historically low interest rates to compete for limited supplies of homes.

Yet the house price inflation has not been accompanied by the consumer price inflation that would normally trigger interest rate hikes needed to shut down the party.

Wheeler’s response in the face of much scepticism from bankers and politicians was a limit on the growth of highly leveraged mortgages.

Imposed in October last year, the bank reckons it helped reduce the pace of annual house price inflation from 10 per cent to 6 per cent and bought the RBNZ an extra three to six months of flat interest rates.

The central bank has since increased its Official Cash Rate by 100 basis points to 3.5 per cent, taking more steam out of the housing market, but also increasing pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

The currency’s surprising strength this year despite slumps in dairy and log prices has been a constant source of frustration for New Zealand’s policy makers, just as it has been for RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

Wheeler warned about the high New Zealand dollar 13 times in the last two years, but was circumspect about the benefits of intervention for most of that time.

As recently as March, Wheeler pointed out that the New Zealand dollar was between the 7th and 10th most traded in the world, with turnover of $NZ100 billion a day – most of which was in offshore markets.

See more at: https://bluenotes.anz.com/posts/2014/10/what-the-rba-can-learn-from-the-rbnz/#sthash.mMJ1uYgc.dpuf

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Ello CEO Paul Budnitz: “We Are Not Here to Compete With Facebook”

Social network Ello, which operates in Vermont, is riding the rocket ship usually reserved for Silicon Valley’s hottest consumer tech startups.

The ad-free social network, which has to be the most well-known product from the Green Mountain State since Ben and Jerry’s launched in the late ’70s, has taken the tech world by storm over the past two weeks. The site had just 90 members at the beginning of August and employs “about 10 to 12″ people, according to CEO Paul Budnitz, who also owns a bike company, Budnitz Bicycles. But despite being invite-only, Ello is handling between 40,000 and 50,000 invite requests every hour.*

That means the site is doubling in size every day or two, he says.

So what’s the draw? Ello is thriving because the company and its founders promise users an ad-free experience. The company manifesto heroically tell newcomers “You are not a product,” and Ello says it won’t sell your data — ever. “We’re based in a state that has no billboards — it’s part of who we are, it’s part of our DNA,” Budnitz jokes.

That doesn’t mean, however, it isn’t tracking users. It does collect information, including user location, language, referring Web site and time spent visiting Ello. It does this anonymously, and explains it all in the company’s “About” section on the site.

It does not collect personal information, according to a company spokesperson, meaning things like your gender and age are off limits (you can sign up anonymously as well). Users can also opt out entirely from any data collection should they choose. In other words, Ello has established itself as an alternative to Facebook — and it’s working, at least early on.

So how does a social network with millions of users and a promise for no ads actually plan to work? We interviewed Budnitz to find out.

Re/code: You initially created Ello as a private social network for a small group of friends. What have the past two weeks been like for you given all the attention Ello’s received?

http://recode.net/2014/09/30/ello-ceo-paul-budnitz-we-are-not-here-to-compete-with-facebook-qa/

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Bill Gross’s Farewell Letter to Pimco

Bill Gross, founder of Pimco, and its chief investment officer for the past 40 or so years, resigned last week. Rumor has it that he was but two steps ahead of a mutinous gang, swords out, planning to make him walk the plank. Gross was too quick and before the mutineers could force him, he jumped ship — and landed at Janus Capital. There, we surmise, he was given a slug of equity and a free hand to run a smaller, more nimble fund.

On his way out of Pimco, Gross penned a heartfelt farewell letter to his former colleagues. But so great was his haste that he never hit “send.”

Fortunately for you, dear reader, we managed to get our hands on a copy of that e-mail, which we reproduce below and without further comment:

I can add colours to the chameleon,

Change shapes with Proteus for advantages,

And set the murderous Machiavel to school.

Henry VI, Part III

Dear Friends, Colleagues and Co-workers,

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-03/bill-gross-s-investor-outlook-on-palace-coups

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Albert Edwards Says Watch Japanese Yen and Be Very Afraid

The Japanese yen goes into freefall.China’s fragile economy tips over the edge. A wave of profit-crushing deflation comes washing over the U.S. and Europe. Investors panic.

That’s the view of perennial pessimist Albert Edwards. The London-based analyst and his team at investment bank Societe Generale SA have been ranked No. 1 for global strategy in surveys by Thomson Reuters Extel every year since 2007, even with a history of saying unpleasant things that few want to hear.

“My role is to step back from the excessive enthusiasm that builds up in the market, and to just say, ‘This is wrong. This is going to go horribly wrong,’” the 53-year-old said by phone last week.

The cliche is that when the U.S. sneezes, Japan catches a cold. Edwards says Japan is just as apt to lead the way. After all, when the Internet bubble burst in 2000, Japan’s tech-heavy Jasdaq index started to slide weeks before the Nasdaq. Japan also pioneered the deflation that now threatens the West. In 1997, it was a plunging yen that helped trigger Asia’s currency crisis.

With the yen’s drop this week to a six-year low of 110 versus the dollar, Japan’s currency may once again be the first domino to fall in a chain of events that could be bad for everyone, according to Edwards.

Photographer: Rukhsana Hamid/Bloomberg

Albert Edwards, Global Strategist at Societe Generale SA.

Stock Rally

The U.S. stock market rally has been going for 66 months since the financial crisis bottomed in March 2009, a streak that’s already a year longer than average. A disconnect between buoyant equity prices and corporate profit growth in the low single-digits makes the situation especially precarious.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/albert-edwards-says-watch-japanese-yen-and-be-very-very-afraid.html

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Mathias Sundin’s bitcoin advocacy and donations has made him elected in the parliamentary election

How a Swedish politician won an election using Bitcoin donations only.

 

Over the past years, many politicians have run Bitcoin-centric campaigns; however,  they have not succeeded in reaching centralized higher political office. Mathias Sundin, who won the recent Swedish parliamentary elections, holds the world record in making it using a bitcoin donations only campaign. Dollars, Euros or even Swedish kronor are not acceptable to him. Says Mathias on his blog:

If you want to support my campaign, don’t   give me dollars, Euros or Swedish kronor, you must donate in bitcoins.”

Mathias Sundin has always supported bitcoins. He is not worried about the criticism raised against the bitcoin system, but. Believes that bitcoin has the potential to change the world. Mathias Sundin believes bitcoin is better because:

  1. Bitcoins solves the problems with trust

Mathias Sundin believes the bitcoin system is an effective tool to overcome trust problems. For example, in the bitcoin system, two people will sign a digital contract on their smartphones regarding any transaction. The remaining transaction will then be completed automatically. It is safe since there is no possibility to lose either money or products. Here is a good example:

  1. Bitcoins connects people

The world is now like a village, with many potential customers all over the world. For example, a software company can sell its software online to customers from all over the world. Making the payment systems easier improves online performance incrementally.. People from all over the world can use the same products to connect.

  1. All politics is global

According to Mathias Sundin, bitcoins connect people all over the world and this connection generates a lot of ideas. These ideas are important for future innovation. When so many people share their understandings, intentions, an innovation enabled ecosystem is created.

So, we should accept and develop the bitcoin idea to make our economic development faster.  Sundin collects a large amount of bitcoin donations from all over the world, and thus, many people support his ideas and beliefs. Though Mathias Sundin promised to develop the education system, to make the tax system more favorable for entrepreneurs, to defend privacy rights etc., he believes his bitcoin advocacy made him a winner in the parliamentary election. People all over the world support his idea and want to see it become a widespread reality. For him it is isn’t a matter of winning a seat in the parliament. His political agenda gives the citizens and the world a clear image of what he wants to tackle the moment he takes his seat in the parliament.

  1. Fight Knee-jerk regulation of Bitcoin, other currencies and disruptive innovation.

The country’s regulatory framework is relatively liberal. Wallen, an official from the Swedish Tax Agency, has said is the agency is drafting rules for Bitcoin users. These rules are likely to regulate Bitcoin-like assets stating that Bitcoin fails to meet Sweden’s definition of a currency. Wallen is also considering whether to tax bitcoin miners as businesses. Currencies are traditionally tied to a central bank or geographical area.  This is a top item on Sundins agenda, and since he won an election through bitcoin; he definitely knows that bitcoin is a virtual currency which funded his successful campaigns.

  1.       Back education reform 

 Mathias Sundin hopes his bitcoin-only funded campaign will be a means to improve education across Sweden. School shutdowns and deteriorating results are also top items on his agenda. Reforming the whole education system to make sure that both public and private schools performance is standardized citing that private schools are after making profits and the faith stuck in peoples mind that private schools perform better than public schools. He will make sure that this faith is changed and the trust is earned by both sectors by providing quality education.

  1. Defend privacy rights

 Every citizen has a right to protect his or her private information, and revealing such information to other parties is a threat to privacy. Every citizen has a right to protect their medical information, residential address, and to access information on them held by the by the authorities. Press freedom has been a major issue which sometimes violates privacy rights. Sundin is keen on defending rules to help each citizen maintain their privacy rights. People who feel their reputation has been tarnished could sue for defamation, but, without constitutional change the state’s hands appear tied.

  1. Working towards developing a tax system that promotes innovative, fast growing companies.

Sundin believes that economies have to keep up with technological advances including Bitcoin. An entrepreneur who develops software could potentially reach billions of people, and with a simple money transferring system, like bitcoin, charging for it will be easier. Sundin will also work towards t lowering taxes for entrepreneurs and decrease regulations in order to create a better business climate.  Sweden has already managed to attract a number of prominent crypto currency businesses, ranging from exchanges to mining companies.

  1. Promote the spreading of Bitcoin and increase awareness.

Bitcoin has so far not had much of an impact on the local economy. The Swedish central bank found that bitcoin trading volumes in the country were relatively low and concluded that bitcoin did not have any measurable impact on the country’s retail payment market. Considering this fact Sundin promises to keep promoting bitcoin in the future. Sundin is set to persuade banks and other financial organizations that working with bitcoin companies is ultimately a positive and will lead to increased economic growth of the country. Sundin still believes that more work is necessary to explain the potential of bitcoin,  , and that the potential use of bitcoin will make economic growth faster. However, based on a recently published research paper, the Swedish Central Bank found low volume transactions locally, concluding that bitcoin does not currently have a measurable impact on retail market or financial stability.

 

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