WEEK 9 2024

This week promises to be another bustling period for traders and investors alike, packed with key economic indicators and earnings reports that could sway market sentiments and trading strategies. Here’s a closer look at the events on the horizon:

Monday: New Home Sales Data

The week kicks off with the release of New Home Sales data. This metric is a critical indicator of economic health, reflecting consumer confidence and spending power. Strong sales figures can signal robust demand, potentially boosting related sectors and the broader market.

Tuesday: CB Consumer Confidence Data

Tuesday brings the CB Consumer Confidence index, a vital gauge of household spending and sentiment. High confidence levels suggest consumers are more likely to spend, which can drive economic growth and positively impact markets.

Wednesday: US Q4 2023 GDP Data

Midweek, attention turns to the US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2023. This comprehensive report measures the economy’s overall output and growth rate, offering insights into the economic recovery’s strength. Positive surprises here could fuel market rallies, while disappointments may trigger caution.

Thursday: January PCE Inflation Data

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation data on Thursday is particularly noteworthy, given its role as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This report could influence future monetary policy decisions, making it a critical watchpoint for interest rate projections and market direction.

Earnings Season Continues

Amidst these economic reports, approximately 10% of S&P 500 companies are set to release their earnings. These earnings reports provide a snapshot of corporate health and profitability, offering valuable insights into various sectors and industries. Positive earnings surprises can lift individual stocks and sectors, while disappointments may weigh on market sentiment.

In summary, this week’s lineup of economic data and earnings reports is set to provide traders and investors with crucial insights into the economy’s health, consumer sentiment, inflation pressures, and corporate profitability. Each of these events has the potential to influence market trends, making it a week filled with opportunities and risks. As always, staying informed and agile will be key to navigating the week’s developments successfully.

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    The US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index measures American public sentiment on economic conditions, impacting spending and growth. The index, derived from surveys, has two components: Present Situation and Expectations. High consumer confidence spurs spending, while low confidence may curtail it. Employment, economic news, and political events shape confidence, which…
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Embracing Mistakes: The Path to Trading Mastery According to David Ryan

The single most important advice I can give anybody is: Learn from your mistakes. That is the only way to become a successful trader.

David Ryan

David Ryan’s wisdom on the importance of learning from mistakes is not just advice; it’s a guiding principle that underscores a core aspect of achieving success in the volatile world of trading. Ryan himself is a testament to the efficacy of this approach, having carved out a distinguished career in the financial markets through a combination of skill, discipline, and a relentless commitment to learning from every experience.

David Ryan is best known for his success in the stock market, particularly through his association with William O’Neil + Co. and his remarkable achievements in the U.S. Investing Championship during the 1980s. Ryan’s trading philosophy and techniques were heavily influenced by William O’Neil’s CAN SLIM methodology, a comprehensive investment strategy that emphasizes the use of specific criteria to identify potential stock investments. Under the mentorship of O’Neil, Ryan honed his skills and developed a keen understanding of the markets, which allowed him to win the U.S. Investing Championship three times.

Ryan’s journey in the financial markets is a vivid illustration of how theoretical knowledge, when coupled with practical experience and introspection, can lead to profound success. His achievements are not merely the result of his technical skills or his ability to analyze market trends; they also stem from his psychological resilience and his approach to mistakes and losses.

Learning from mistakes, as Ryan advocates, involves a systematic and reflective process. It requires traders to not only acknowledge their errors but to deeply analyze them to understand their root causes. This could involve reviewing trade setups, execution, and the decision-making process, as well as considering the emotional and psychological factors that may have influenced their choices. The goal is to extract actionable insights that can be applied to future trading decisions, thereby continuously refining one’s strategy and approach.

This philosophy emphasizes the dynamic and ever-evolving nature of trading. Markets change, and what worked yesterday may not work tomorrow. By learning from mistakes, traders can adapt to these changes, developing a flexible and resilient approach that is responsive to new information and market conditions.

David Ryan’s emphasis on learning from mistakes is complemented by his broader approach to trading and investment, which advocates for rigorous research, disciplined risk management, and a continuous pursuit of education and improvement. His career serves as an inspiring example for traders at all levels, demonstrating that while the markets may be unpredictable, the path to success is grounded in a commitment to learning, adaptation, and personal growth.

In essence, Ryan’s advice encapsulates a fundamental truth about trading and investing: success is not defined by the absence of failure but by the ability to learn, evolve, and thrive in the face of challenges. His legacy is a reminder that in the complex and competitive arena of the financial markets, the most valuable asset a trader can possess is not a particular set of skills or strategies, but a mindset oriented towards growth, learning, and resilience.

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Six Essential Strategies for Sustainable Trading Success: Minimizing Losses and Maximizing Gains


Enhancing your trading approach requires strategic discipline and a commitment to certain principles that guard against common pitfalls. Here are six ways to level up your trading, ensuring that you maximize gains while minimizing losses:

1. No Big Losses (Cut Losses Quickly)

Implement a strict stop-loss policy to protect your capital. The key to longevity in trading is preservation of capital. By cutting losses quickly, you prevent any single trade from significantly damaging your portfolio. This approach emphasizes the importance of accepting small losses as a part of the trading process, preventing them from evolving into larger, more detrimental financial setbacks.

2. Never Average Down

Averaging down on a losing position can amplify risks, tying up capital in unfavorable trades with the hope of a market reversal. This strategy can lead to significant losses if the stock continues to decline. Instead, focus on allocating resources to positions showing strength and potential for positive returns, rather than attempting to salvage declining investments.

3. Never Buy Stocks in Downtrends (Short Them)

Purchasing stocks in a downtrend can be akin to catching a falling knife, exposing you to substantial losses if the trend continues. If you’re inclined to trade on downtrends, consider short selling as an alternative. This strategy involves borrowing shares to sell at the current price, with the aim of buying them back at a lower price, capitalizing on the stock’s decline.

4. Avoid Extended Stocks (10% Above 8EMA)

Steer clear of stocks that have moved significantly above their short-term moving averages, such as the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA). Stocks in such extended positions are often prone to corrections. Waiting for a pullback or consolidation closer to the moving average can provide a more favorable entry point with reduced risk.

5. Never Let a Good Gain Become a Loss (No Round Trips)

Secure profits by setting trailing stops or selling partial positions as the stock appreciates. This strategy ensures that profitable trades do not turn into losses, locking in gains while potentially allowing for further upside. It’s crucial to protect the profits you’ve earned to maintain a positive overall trading performance.

6. Nail Down Profits (When Profit Is Above Average Winners)

When a trade yields returns significantly higher than your average profitable trades, consider taking profits. While it’s tempting to hold on for even greater gains, realizing profits when they exceed expectations can boost your trading account and mitigate the risk of potential reversals.

By adhering to these six principles, traders can create a disciplined framework that promotes consistent profitability and risk management. Each guideline serves to navigate the complexities of the market with greater confidence and strategic foresight, ultimately contributing to a more successful and sustainable trading career.

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Peter Lynch Lecture On Investing | 1994

Peter Lynch held a lecture (speech + Q&A) at the National Press Club on the topic, U.S. economic investments.

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The market does not run on chance or luck

The market does not run on chance or luck. Like the battlefield, it runs on probabilities and odds.

David Dreman (1936-)

In the realm of investing, the notion that success stems from luck or random chance is a myth that has been debunked by many of the world’s most successful investors. Among them, David Dreman stands out as a vocal proponent of a more analytical and methodical approach to the financial markets. Born in 1936, Dreman has made a significant impact on investment philosophy with his emphasis on contrarian strategies and the psychological aspects of investing. His insights into the market’s workings are profound, yet one of his most striking assertions is the comparison of the market to a battlefield, where success is determined not by chance, but by understanding and leveraging probabilities and odds.

This perspective challenges the conventional wisdom that often leads investors to make decisions based on hype, fear, or herd mentality. Dreman’s comparison of the market to a battlefield is apt in many ways. Just as a military strategist assesses the terrain, the strength of the enemy forces, and the likelihood of various outcomes before making a move, a savvy investor analyzes market conditions, evaluates the financial health of companies, and considers the broader economic landscape to make informed decisions.

The idea that the market operates on probabilities and odds underscores the importance of research, analysis, and discipline in investing. It implies that success in the financial markets requires a deep understanding of various factors that can influence outcomes. This includes macroeconomic indicators, company performance metrics, industry trends, and even the psychological factors that can drive investor behavior.

Dreman’s emphasis on probabilities also highlights the importance of diversification in an investment portfolio. By spreading investments across different asset classes, sectors, and geographies, investors can manage risk more effectively, increasing the odds of achieving consistent returns over the long term. This approach is akin to a military strategist deploying forces on multiple fronts to maximize the chances of victory.

Furthermore, Dreman’s perspective encourages investors to be contrarian, to think independently, and to be wary of the market’s mood swings. Just as a skilled general might see opportunity where others see only peril, a contrarian investor looks for value in undervalued stocks that the market has overlooked. This requires not just analytical skills, but also the courage to go against the grain, to invest based on conviction rather than following the crowd.

In essence, Dreman’s assertion that the market runs on probabilities and odds rather than chance or luck serves as a call to action for investors. It urges them to adopt a more disciplined, analytical approach to investing, one that emphasizes thorough research, risk management, and strategic thinking. By doing so, investors can navigate the complexities of the financial markets more effectively, making informed decisions that can lead to long-term success. Just as in a battlefield, where victory is achieved through strategy, preparation, and understanding of the odds, in the market, success comes to those who are best prepared to assess and act on the probabilities.

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Richard Dennis encapsulates crucial wisdom for traders


Richard Dennis, a renowned commodity trader, encapsulates crucial wisdom for traders in his reflection on handling losses. His insights serve as a guiding principle for maintaining discipline and rationality in the tumultuous world of trading. Dennis highlights the pitfalls of attempting to immediately recover losses through aggressive tactics, such as doubling up on positions in hopes of a quick rebound. This approach, often driven by emotional responses to financial setbacks, can exacerbate the situation by leading to further losses.

Moreover, Dennis underscores the psychological impact of losses on decision-making. He acknowledges that experiencing a significant loss can cloud a trader’s judgment, making subsequent decisions more prone to error. His advice to allow a period of time to pass after a loss before re-engaging in trading is a testament to the importance of mental clarity and emotional stability in the trading process.

This perspective emphasizes the need for traders to adopt a disciplined approach to risk management, avoiding the temptation to take undue risks in an attempt to recoup losses. It also highlights the importance of self-awareness and the ability to recognize when one’s judgment may be compromised. By adhering to these principles, traders can navigate the markets more effectively, preserving their capital and their psychological well-being in the face of inevitable setbacks. Dennis’s advice resonates not just within trading but as a broader lesson on the significance of patience, discipline, and emotional intelligence in decision-making.

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The trading world’s unpredictable nature requires ….

In the realm of trading and investing, the adage that “you gamble, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose” succinctly captures the inherent uncertainty and risk. This principle acknowledges that despite the most thorough analysis, strategic planning, and risk management, the outcomes can never be guaranteed. Market conditions are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, political events, and even unforeseen global occurrences, which can all sway in unpredictable ways.

Accepting this reality is crucial for any trader or investor. It emphasizes the importance of preparedness for both favorable outcomes and setbacks. Success in trading often involves a balanced approach to decision-making, where the potential for gains is weighed against the risk of losses. This mindset encourages the use of stop-loss orders, diversification, and a disciplined approach to capital management as strategies to mitigate potential losses.

Moreover, this gambling analogy underlines the significance of not letting emotions drive trading decisions. Just as a gambler must know when to walk away from the table, traders must learn to cut their losses and not chase after them in an attempt to recover. Similarly, understanding when to take profits and not become greedy is equally important.

In summary, the trading world’s unpredictable nature requires acknowledging the gamble involved in each decision. This perspective is not to deter individuals from trading but to instill a respect for the markets’ volatility and the importance of strategic planning, risk management, and emotional control in pursuing trading success.

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Week 8 2024

This week, despite being shortened by the observance of Presidents Day with markets closed on Monday, promises a packed schedule of key events that could significantly impact financial markets:

1. Presidents Day, Markets Closed – Monday

The week kicks off with a quiet start as U.S. financial markets take a pause in observance of Presidents Day. This federal holiday will see trading activities halted for the day, offering investors a momentary break before the week’s events unfold.

2. Fed Meeting Minutes – Wednesday

A highlight of the week, the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday, will be closely scrutinized for insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction. Investors will be looking for clues on interest rate movements and the Fed’s outlook on the economy.

3. S&P Global Services PMI Data – Thursday

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, due on Thursday, will provide a snapshot of the health of the services sector. Given the sector’s significant contribution to the U.S. economy, these figures could sway market sentiment and influence policy decisions.

4. Existing Home Sales Data – Thursday

Also on Thursday, the existing home sales data will be released, offering an update on the state of the housing market. This report is a critical indicator of economic strength and consumer confidence, potentially affecting markets.

5. Total of 5 Fed Speaker Events This Week

Throughout the week, five Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to make appearances. Their remarks will be watched closely for any additional perspective on the economy, future rate hikes, or policy shifts, which could provide fresh fodder for market movements.

6. ~15% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings

Approximately 15% of S&P 500 companies are set to report their earnings this week. These reports could induce volatility, as investors gauge corporate profitability and outlooks against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments.

In summary, the week ahead, though brief, is laden with significant events that could influence market directions. From the anticipation surrounding the Fed’s minutes to crucial economic data releases and a slew of earnings reports, investors will have plenty to digest as they navigate the complexities of the current financial landscape.

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Achieving success … ?


Achieving success is not solely a testament to intelligence. More frequently, it’s the result of persistence, experimentation, and resilience. Individuals who have reached a level of notable achievement have often embraced a willingness to explore various paths, to fail, learn, and then try again, consistently over an extended period. This relentless pursuit, characterized by trying more things more often, enables them to accumulate experiences that refine their judgment, enhance their adaptability, and sharpen their skills.

This approach underscores the value of perseverance and the importance of embracing failure as a stepping stone to success. It suggests that the key to achieving one’s goals lies not in possessing innate brilliance but in the capacity to persist, to remain curious, and to maintain a relentless commitment to exploration and improvement. By adopting a mindset that views setbacks as opportunities for growth, these individuals are able to navigate through challenges, adapt to changing circumstances, and ultimately, carve out their paths to success.

In essence, the journey to “making it” is less about the pursuit of perfection and more about the continuous effort, the willingness to experiment, and the resilience to withstand setbacks. It’s a reminder that success is accessible to those who are prepared to commit to the long haul, constantly seeking out new experiences, learning from their failures, and staying resilient in the face of adversity.

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Maximizing Day Trading Returns: An In-Depth Analysis of the Opening Range Breakout Strategy and Stocks in Play


This paper explores the effectiveness of the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy, particularly the 5-minute ORB, as a viable day trading approach for generating consistent and uncorrelated income. Focusing on over 7,000 US stocks from 2016 to 2023, the study specifically examines Stocks in Play—stocks with unusually high activity due to company-specific news. The findings reveal that a portfolio of the top 20 Stocks in Play yielded a net performance of 1,600%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.81, and an annualized alpha of 36%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s return of 198% during the same period. Additionally, the paper compares the ORB strategy’s returns across various time frames (15, 30, and 60 minutes) and provides detailed performance statistics for the 25 best and worst-performing stocks. This research stands out for its intraday granularity and extensive stock-level analysis, marking it as a pioneering contribution to the field.

Read the document here : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4729284

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