China’s central bank is prepared to take its strongest action since 2012 to loosen monetary policy if economic growth slows further, by cutting the amount of cash that banks must keep as reserves, sources involved in internal policy discussions say.
A cut would be triggered if growth slips below 7.5 per cent and towards 7.0 per cent, they said, and would come on top of money market operations and currency intervention via state banks that traders say has already loosened monetary conditions.
Apart from supporting a stumbling economy, the stronger action of cutting bank reserves would provide a cushion against any shocks from financial reforms that the central bank is widely expected to push through this year, including a widening of the yuan’s trading band to give the currency more room to rise or fall each day and allowing banks more room to set deposit rates.
For 31-year old Beijing resident Wang Yuanzhi, talk about a bubble in Chinese property is not something to be too concerned about. "If you look at the real estate market in China, it has already seen a golden decade of extreme fast growth. There will still be room for growth…
11 Ugly Charts That Confirm China's Dramatic Slowdown During the National People's Congress, China's policymakers announced that it would target 7.5% GDP growth target for 2014. This is down from 7.7% growth in 2013, and the recent data shows that the economy is clearly off to a slower start to…
When stock markets are free-falling 10+% in a matter of days, it’s natural to seek some answers to the question “why now?” Some are saying it was all the result of high-frequency trading (HFT), while others point to China’s modest devaluation of its currency the renminbi (a.k.a. yuan) as the…
Chinese economic growth slowed to the lowest level since 1999 last year, expanding 7.7%. Policymakers have recognized the need to rebalance economic growth and are now slowly transitioning away from a credit and export driven economy to one driven by consumer growth. Some argue that the recent crackdown on shadow banking and the money market rate spikes are…
Global investors are lending money to Chinese property developers in record amounts this year, in spite of a deteriorating housing market and warnings from rating agencies over the state of the sector. Offshore bond issuance from mainland property companies is on track for a record year, with $18bn of debt…
China’s yuan fell after the central bank cut the currency’s fixing by the most since July 2012 and the nation’s exports unexpectedly declined last month.
The People’s Bank of China lowered the daily reference rate by 0.18 percent to 6.1312 per dollar today, the weakest level since Dec. 3. Overseas shipments fell 18.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 2009, customs data showed March 8. That compares with the median forecast for a 7.5 percent increase in a Bloomberg News survey. The figures may have been distorted by the Lunar New Year holiday and over-invoicing a year earlier, Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of Asia research at ING Groep NV, wrote in a note today.
The move in March by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to double the RMB’s daily trading band from 1 percent to 2 percent has coincided with a new era of exchange rate volatility. This year, the long running trend of RMB appreciation has reversed course with it losing 3.4 percent against…
Efforts by China to damp speculation in its currency risks driving away investors just as it’s attempting to open up its capital markets in a once-in-a-generation economic overhaul. After allowing the yuan to steadily rise in each of the past four years, China’s central bank let it tumble about 1…
Tags: china, yuan, currency, bank, percent, central, http://www.bloomberg.com, month, bloomberg
China’s central bank weakened the renminbi by its most in two decades on Tuesday. The unexpected move fuelled talk of “currency wars”, although some interpreted it as a welcome gesture towards market reform and financial liberalisation. What happened? The People’s Bank of China devalued its currency by setting the daily…
The yuan has recently been something of a safe haven among emerging-market currencies, yet market participants have learned from a bloody lesson over the past week that it is no longer an easy, one-way bet. A sharp fall of both the onshore and offshore yuan against the greenback made the…
When stock markets are free-falling 10+% in a matter of days, it’s natural to seek some answers to the question “why now?” Some are saying it was all the result of high-frequency trading (HFT), while others point to China’s modest devaluation of its currency the renminbi (a.k.a. yuan) as the…
China’s Premier Li Keqiang isn’t the sort of man to blush in public. But yesterday, when he went in front of China’s national legislature and targeted 7.5% growth in gross domestic product for 2014, he should have. The problem isn’t the number — most economists agree that 7.5% is a manageable if difficult goal. Rather, the issue is that Li Keqiang himself doesn’t believe in the accuracy of Chinese GDP statistics.
That, at least, is what he told then-U.S. ambassador to China Clark Randt over dinner on Mar. 12, 2007. At the time, Li was the Secretary General of Liaoning Province, and widely viewed as a potential successor to Chinese President Hu Jintao. According to a Mar. 15, 2007, declassified U.S. diplomatic cable (released by Wikileaks) recounting the dinner, a “smiling” Li declared that Chinese GDP figures were “man-made” and therefore unreliable — “for reference only.”
The global financial crisis did not start in 2008 but in 2007 when BNP Paribas and UBS AG suspended withdrawals from some of their funds. If the world is once again buffeted by a similar crisis thanks to the enormous splurge in Chinese lending and fears about the quality of…
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economy has shown signs of overheating despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth, suggesting that, constrained by the supply of labor, its potential growth rate might have fallen significantly from its past level. With the priorities of the PRC’s authorities shifting from raising economic growth…
China's banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, a surge that suggests the world's second-biggest economy may not be cooling as much as some fear. Chinese banks lent 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion) worth of new yuan loans in January, beating a 1.1 trillion…
11 Ugly Charts That Confirm China's Dramatic Slowdown During the National People's Congress, China's policymakers announced that it would target 7.5% GDP growth target for 2014. This is down from 7.7% growth in 2013, and the recent data shows that the economy is clearly off to a slower start to…
Tags: china's, growth, economy, domestic, gdp, national, china
The yuan has recently been something of a safe haven among emerging-market currencies, yet market participants have learned from a bloody lesson over the past week that it is no longer an easy, one-way bet. A sharp fall of both the onshore and offshore yuan against the greenback made the…
If trade and financial sanctions were imposed on Russia, the cost to the UK might well exceed the cost to Russia.
That is presumably why the Foreign Office wrote – in a document carelessly (or deliberately?) displayed yesterday for the lenses of photographers – that “the UK should not support for now trade sanctions or close London’s financial centre to Russians”.
It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen. Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
America has allowed its oil companies to export oil as announced in private letters to oil companies. This will, for sure, cause a stir in the global oil markets and lead to lower prices. Global oil prices previously soared due to the fall in the supply of oil- stoppage of oil exports…
When President Obama took office in 2009 at the height of the recession, the annual budget deficit came in at 10.1 percent of gross domestic product -- a level not seen since the end of World War II. In the five years since, the budget deficit has been sliced more…
Efforts by China to damp speculation in its currency risks driving away investors just as it’s attempting to open up its capital markets in a once-in-a-generation economic overhaul.
After allowing the yuan to steadily rise in each of the past four years, China’s central bank let it tumble about 1 percent over the past week, the most since at least 2007. Volatility in the currency has jumped the most this month among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
The yuan has recently been something of a safe haven among emerging-market currencies, yet market participants have learned from a bloody lesson over the past week that it is no longer an easy, one-way bet. A sharp fall of both the onshore and offshore yuan against the greenback made the…
Tags: yuan, currency, week, investors, currencies, china, asian
The move in March by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to double the RMB’s daily trading band from 1 percent to 2 percent has coincided with a new era of exchange rate volatility. This year, the long running trend of RMB appreciation has reversed course with it losing 3.4 percent against…
Tags: percent, currency, markets, billion, bank, $, china
China's banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, a surge that suggests the world's second-biggest economy may not be cooling as much as some fear. Chinese banks lent 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion) worth of new yuan loans in January, beating a 1.1 trillion…
Tags: yuan, china, $, billion, bank, month, years, asian
Shanghai's over-the-counter equity market was almost deserted on a weekday morning last week. Two cleaning ladies swept the floor of a trading hall devoid of brokers or computers, while a woman at an information desk ate breakfast and talked on her mobile phone. During four visits this year to the…
Tags: investors, http://www.bloomberg.com, week, markets, china, asian
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economy has shown signs of overheating despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth, suggesting that, constrained by the supply of labor, its potential growth rate might have fallen significantly from its past level. With the priorities of the PRC’s authorities shifting from raising economic growth…
The yuan has recently been something of a safe haven among emerging-market currencies, yet market participants have learned from a bloody lesson over the past week that it is no longer an easy, one-way bet.
A sharp fall of both the onshore and offshore yuan against the greenback made the Chinese currency the worst performing one within emerging Asia over the past two weeks.
Efforts by China to damp speculation in its currency risks driving away investors just as it’s attempting to open up its capital markets in a once-in-a-generation economic overhaul. After allowing the yuan to steadily rise in each of the past four years, China’s central bank let it tumble about 1…
Tags: china, yuan, currency, week, currencies, investors, asian
China's banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, a surge that suggests the world's second-biggest economy may not be cooling as much as some fear. Chinese banks lent 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion) worth of new yuan loans in January, beating a 1.1 trillion…
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economy has shown signs of overheating despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth, suggesting that, constrained by the supply of labor, its potential growth rate might have fallen significantly from its past level. With the priorities of the PRC’s authorities shifting from raising economic growth…
Shanghai's over-the-counter equity market was almost deserted on a weekday morning last week. Two cleaning ladies swept the floor of a trading hall devoid of brokers or computers, while a woman at an information desk ate breakfast and talked on her mobile phone. During four visits this year to the…
The singling out of three debt types most at risk by the People’s Bank of China has prompted Nomura Holdings Inc. to warn that rising borrowing costs will make it even harder to avoid a default by these issuers. The PBOC will enhance monitoring of local government financing vehicles, industries with overcapacity…
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) economy has shown signs of overheating despite a sharp slowdown in economic growth, suggesting that, constrained by the supply of labor, its potential growth rate might have fallen significantly from its past level. With the priorities of the PRC’s authorities shifting from raising economic growth to curbing inflation, they are expected to change their stance on macroeconomic policy, including monetary policy, from easing to tightening. As a result, the PRC economy is likely to slow in 2014.
The global financial crisis did not start in 2008 but in 2007 when BNP Paribas and UBS AG suspended withdrawals from some of their funds. If the world is once again buffeted by a similar crisis thanks to the enormous splurge in Chinese lending and fears about the quality of…
The yuan has recently been something of a safe haven among emerging-market currencies, yet market participants have learned from a bloody lesson over the past week that it is no longer an easy, one-way bet. A sharp fall of both the onshore and offshore yuan against the greenback made the…
China's banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, a surge that suggests the world's second-biggest economy may not be cooling as much as some fear. Chinese banks lent 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion) worth of new yuan loans in January, beating a 1.1 trillion…
China’s Premier Li Keqiang isn’t the sort of man to blush in public. But yesterday, when he went in front of China’s national legislature and targeted 7.5% growth in gross domestic product for 2014, he should have. The problem isn't the number -- most economists agree that 7.5% is a…
Shanghai's over-the-counter equity market was almost deserted on a weekday morning last week. Two cleaning ladies swept the floor of a trading hall devoid of brokers or computers, while a woman at an information desk ate breakfast and talked on her mobile phone. During four visits this year to the…
The plunge of the lira has already exposed the Turkish economy’s dependence on short-term foreign investment. Most foreign capital is invested in Turkish stocks and bonds rather than longer-term projects.
All it takes is a phone call or a few clicks of a mouse for short-term investors to move their money elsewhere, and that is what foreign investors have been doing, not only in pulling money out of Turkey but from countries like Russia, Argentina and South Africa, whose currencies have also fallen as a result.
The US Dollar’s status as a reserve currency seems to be a perennial concern for many people these days. I think this concern is often dramatically overstated. I was reminded of this point as I was reviewing the slides from Jeff Gundlach’s presentation yesterday which showed the following chart: Source…
5 REASONS FOR INVESTORS TO CARE ABOUT RUSSIA’S MARKET TURMOIL It might be tempting to think in realpolitik terms about Russia’s financial woes right now — the idea that a weakened Russia has less weight to throw around in conflicts such as the Ukraine and Syria. But the reality is…
http://www.youtube.com/embed?listType=playlist&list=UU0iTb2U2nWkm5X3XRityENw During this 40+ minute interview, Jason asks Mish about interest rates and financial repression and if he thinks the Federal Reserve is trapped and can they meaningfully raise interest rates? Mish says the Fed would probably never admit they are trapped and is probably too stupid to know…
Deutsche Bank has fired three currency traders in New York as regulators worldwide ramp up their investigations into potential manipulation of the $5-trillion-a-day foreign exchange market, according to a person briefed on the matter. The three employees include the head of Deutsche Bank’s emerging markets foreign exchange trading desk in…
Make no mistake the world is currently engaged in a financial war and the ruble collapse is just one battle. The 2008 Great Financial Crisis ushered in a new currency war that has morphed into a financial market war, with oil as the weapon of choice. I am not trying…
“The negative sentiment is pretty much in place so you can expect a lot more selling,” Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $50 billion in developing nations as an executive chairman at Templeton, said in an interview from Rio de Janeiro today. “We are looking but actually not buying at this stage. Prices can come down or take time to stabilize.”
The plunge in emerging markets is taking a bite out of the performance of funds managed by some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including BlackRock, Brevan Howard and T. Rowe Price. Some mutual funds are already down 10 percent so far this year, thanks to declining stocks and…
Emerging-market equities and exchange rates are again under severe downward pressure, but are the underlying economies really as fragile as global traders seem to fear? The short answer, for a few, is probably “yes,” but for most, “not just yet.” Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/kenneth-rogoff-looks-beneath-the-turmoil-roiling-emerging-economies--equity-and-currency-markets
China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of…
One MINT country show us we need to follow them. Nigeria has "rebased" its gross domestic product (GDP) data, which has pushed it above South Africa as the continent's biggest economy. Nigerian GDP now includes previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production.…
Emerging-market equities and exchange rates are again under severe downward pressure, but are the underlying economies really as fragile as global traders seem to fear? The short answer, for a few, is probably “yes,” but for most, “not just yet.”
The plunge in emerging markets is taking a bite out of the performance of funds managed by some of the biggest names on Wall Street, including BlackRock, Brevan Howard and T. Rowe Price. Some mutual funds are already down 10 percent so far this year, thanks to declining stocks and…
One reason for global market weakness is investors’ fears that emerging market economies may be heading for a broad crisis, sparked by higher U.S. interest rates and slowing growth in China. Much of the analysis in the last few days has focused on why these nations are less exposed to…
“The negative sentiment is pretty much in place so you can expect a lot more selling,” Mobius, 77, who oversees more than $50 billion in developing nations as an executive chairman at Templeton, said in an interview from Rio de Janeiro today. “We are looking but actually not buying at…
China’s benchmark money-market rate is set for the biggest weekly drop since December as demand for cash eased after banks met quarter-end capital requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of funding availability in the banking system, tumbled 124 basis points, or 1.24 percentage points, to 2.98 percent as of…
One MINT country show us we need to follow them. Nigeria has "rebased" its gross domestic product (GDP) data, which has pushed it above South Africa as the continent's biggest economy. Nigerian GDP now includes previously uncounted industries like telecoms, information technology, music, online sales, airlines, and film production.…
