Tag Archives: europe

Europe

Pound in Peril as Opinion Poll Puts Scottish Separatists Ahead

Sterling markets are stirring on the risk of the U.K.’s 307-year-old union splintering, and that spells danger for the pound.

Britain’s currency is likely to weaken when markets resume trading after the weekend, strategists said following a poll that showed the Scottish independence campaign gained a lead for the first time this year with two weeks left before the vote. The pound fell the most in 14 months last week, and gauges of future price swings surged after the previous YouGov Plc showed the “No” campaign’s lead was shrinking.

“The referendum is on a knife edge,” saidNick Stamenkovic, an Edinburgh-based fixed-income strategist at broker RIA Capital Markets Ltd. “Markets have been too complacent but are now waking up to the increased risk of Scotland voting for independence.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/pound-in-peril-as-opinion-poll-puts-scottish-separatists-ahead.html

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  • Hey Europe, "Recovery" does not feel like the right word
    74
    At first glance, the eurozone economy seems like it might finally be on the mend. True, according to some estimates, the eurozone economy may now be growing at an annual rate of 1.6%, up from 0.9% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2014. With the eurozone economy 2% smaller than it…
    Tags: trading, europe
  • History : 6 September 2011 : Swiss National Bank acts to weaken strong franc
    71
    The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-14801324 "The Japanese example with yen intervention teaches us that intervention can work in the very short term but changing…
    Tags: currency, trading, europe
  • Greece back to bond market #greece
    64
    Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors. The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The…
    Tags: markets, europe
  • Intressting : Who lives where in Europe? Nationalities across the continent mapped
    64
    Can you guess where most Chinese nationals are in Europe ? The answer is Italy. Who lives where in Europe? Nationalities across the continent mapped People of many different countries are now living in Europe, with the continent's residents coming everywhere from Jamaica to Tuvalu. Using data from 2011 censuses we have mapped…
    Tags: europe
  • How Sweden fights inequality: not by taxing the rich
    64
    There seems to be an obvious solution to rising inequality: higher taxes. But there's an inconvenient fact here. The way most advanced, industrial countries have made real gains on inequality is through relatively regressive taxes that fund programs that reduce inequality. In fact, America's tax system is already unusually progressive by…
    Tags: europe
Economy, Europe

Everything we thought we knew about the economy was wrong

“There are no facts, only interpretations”, Friedrich Nietzsche once said. One needn’t be a nihilist or a relativist to be bemused at the latest radical rewriting of history from our official number-crunchers. Everything we thought we knew about the British economy’s performance over the past 15 years or so now turns out to be wrong. Endless articles, books and academic papers have become worthless at the stroke of the statisticians’ pen.

The reason, needless to say, is that the rules have changed, yet again. The way the national accounts, the GDP statistics and the rest are calculated has been torn up. International statisticians are making a greater effort at including the output of the sex and illegal drug industries and of charities; they are also changing the way research and development and elements of defence spending are accounted for.

The implications from all of this are huge. The peak-to-trough collapse in output as a result of what has been called the Great Recession has been substantially reduced: GDP collapsed by 6pc, not the 7.2pc previously thought. That is still a very big drop, of course, but it is now almost identical to the recession of the early 1980s, when GDP fell by 5.9pc as Lady Thatcher sought to wean Britain from its high inflation

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11073744/Everything-we-thought-we-knew-about-the-economy-was-wrong.html

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  • The European Debt Crisis Visualized
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    The European Debt Crisis Visualized http://www.bloomberg.com/
    Tags: europe, economy
  • No reason to again give #France more time to cut deficit - Rehn
    74
    There is no reason to further extend a European Union deadline for France to cut its budget deficit, the EU's top economic official said on Saturday, adding policy-makers should have learnt the lessons of the debt crisis and stuck to agreed rules. In June last year Paris got two more…
    Tags: reason, gdp, economy, official, years, rules, europe
  • Greece back to bond market #greece
    69
    Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors. The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The…
    Tags: international, economy, europe
  • "Economic therapy" called devaluation.
    67
      Low euro is like a "deflation" of the Euro. Is this good or bad ? Lets talk about devaluation. The idea being that the goods the nation has to offer will cost less with devaluation. Good idea, right? Many countries have resorted to this economic maneuver in order to increase exports.…
    Tags: greater, drug, called, inflation, europe, economy
  • Greek finance minister says euro will collapse if Greece exits
    63
      Feb 8 (Reuters) - If Greece is forced out of the euro zone, other countries will inevitably follow and the currency bloc will collapse, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday. Greece's new leftist government is trying to re-negotiate its debt repayments and has begun to roll back…
    Tags: europe, collapse, economy
Economy, Europe, USA

French finance minister blasts USD dominance

After the U.S. imposed a fine of US$9 billion on BNP Paribas as the latter had helped countries like Sudan to avoid sanctions launched by the U.S., French finance minister Michel Sapin appealed that rebalancing of currencies used in international payments is possible and necessary; BNP’s punishment case should raise the awareness of all nations that it is necessary to use various currencies, Financial Times reported. 

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  • #EUR/USD fresh highs after breaking through 1.3650 resistance and 50DMA at 1.3655
    72
    EUR/USD fresh highs after breaking through 1.3650 resistance and 50DMA at 1.3655  
    Tags: usa, europe
  • The Weight of Geopolitics. Is Democracy in Decline?
    71
    Politics follows geopolitics, or so it has often seemed throughout history. When the Athenian democracy’s empire rose in the fifth century B.C.E., the number of Greek city-states ruled by democrats proliferated; Sparta’s power was reflected in the spread of Spartan-style oligarchies. When the Soviet Union’s power rose in the early…
    Tags: europe, nations, usa
  • When hedge funds are overwhelmingly on the same side as the broader market, you know it's a crowded trade.
    60
      When even hedge funds are overwhelmingly on the same side of an investment as the broader market, you know it's a crowded trade. This is where the euro finds itself going into 2015. Traders, investment banks, asset managers and the so-called "smart money" of hedge funds are all betting…
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  • Is this the beginning of a crash? @reformedbroker
    59
    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
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  • Two-Speed Recovery: US vs. EU
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    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
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Europe, NoTrading, Startup, trend

Klarna is the next big thing in Internet payments

PayPal revolutionized the way we buy things online, but Klarna is the next big thing in Internet payments, according to famed venture capitalist Michael Moritz.

Moritz made early investments in Google (GOOGL, Tech30), LinkedIn (LNKD, Tech30),Yahoo (YHOO, Tech30) and eBay’s (EBAY, Tech30) PayPal. His firm, Sequoia Capital, has been investing millions in Klarna over the past few years. He is impressed with how the Swedish company’s technology makes online transactions easier, cutting out passwords and the traditionally slow registration process.

“We’ve invested in payments for a good long time and had started doing that in the 1990s,” Moritz told CNNMoney. “We had been an early investor in PayPal. But that was a long time ago. That was almost 15 years ago now. And the world moves on and changes, particularly with the advent of mobile computing … there’s a vast new landscape to conquer.”

http://money.cnn.com/

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ECB, Economy, Europe

Some clue how to trade ECB news 5-Jun-2014

The following are the key points in Goldman Sachs note on the ECB meeting today

1- The rate decision will be announced at 12:45 London time. Given that a deposit cut was telegraphed a month ago, the main question is whether this decision will be in line with market consensus (a 10-15bp cut) or greater (say 20bp). In the former, we expect EUR/$ to be essentially flat into the start of the press conference at 13:30, while the latter could see the cross fall around a big figure into the start of the press conference. 

2- The next stop is the opening statement, which ECB President Draghi will read out during the early minutes of the press conference. This will broadcast what credit easing measures will be taken and reveal the latest inflation forecast. On the former, the strongest signal for EUR/$ downside would come if the ECB gives a headline number for the liquidity impact of credit easing (something like “…the combined measures are ultimately expected to inject EUR200bn in liquidity), while the least favourable scenario is a kind of “rolling” LTRO, for example where banks can get liquidity for new lending every six months. The latter example would likely be a disappointment to the market, taking EUR/$ higher by a big figure or two, while the former could see EUR/$ weaken another big figure or two (especially if credit easing surprises the market, i.e., a 4-year LTRO with broad collateral and favourable haircuts or larger-than-expected ABS purchases). 

3. In FX strategy, the single most important node in tomorrow’s decision tree is the inflation forecast, specifically that for outlying years. If the 2016 forecast is marked down to 1.3% or 1.4%, this would be a de facto strengthening of the ECB’s easing bias, since it would openly acknowledge that further easing measures are needed to bring inflation back to target. We see this as the strongest possible signal for EUR/$ downside, since it subsumes many different kinds of future easing, including Fed-style QE. We think this could take EUR /$ down another big figure or more, as the market updates its reaction function for the ECB. If instead the inflation forecast is left unchanged in the context of a reluctant easing, this will set the stage for EUR/$ to move back up to 1.39. 6. There is obviously lots of ambiguity in all this.

4- A lot will hang on wording, demeanor and emphasis, where there are many shades of grey. However, our basic view remains that the ECB will surprise on the dovish side tomorrow, given the drop in core inflation and the signal sent at the last meeting. 

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  • The European Debt Crisis Visualized
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    The European Debt Crisis Visualized http://www.bloomberg.com/
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  • If Greece defaults on IMF? then ...
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    Greece could take a risky step into the unknown tomorrow if it misses, as expected, a 1.5 billion euro debt payment to the International Monetary Fund. For the moment, credit rating agencies though would not declare Greece officially "in default" on its debt, because the missed payment is to an…
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  • Greece’s Debt Due: What Greece Owes When
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    Facing a cash crunch, Greece is seeking to extend its bailout program with eurozone creditors before it expires on Feb. 28. Here’s what Greece owes, when.   Source : http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/
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  • Why Currencies Are Poised for More Shifts
    65
    The world’s major currencies, which had traded in a relatively stable range, are now in motion -- buffeted by different regional growth and interest rates as well as a simmering brew of geopolitical tensions. Differences are particularly noticeable between the U.S. and Europe, and how far apart currencies in those…
    Tags: europe, ecb, credit, will, economy
longread, NoTrading

The history of statehood on the territory of #Ukraine #longread

The history of statehood on the territory of Ukraine begins with two archetypically European encounters. Medieval statehood on the territory of today’s Ukraine, like that of France and England, includes an encounter with Vikings. The men from the north sought to establish a trade route between the Baltic and Black Seas, and used Kiev, on the Dnieper River, as a trading post. Their arrival coincided with the collapse of an earlier Khazar state, and their leaders soon intermarried with the local Slavic-speaking population. Thus arose the entity known as Kievan Rus. Like all of the states of medieval eastern Europe, Rus was a pagan entity that did not so much convert to Christianity as choose between its western and eastern variants. Like all of its neighbors, it hesitated between Rome and Constantinople before its rulers chose the latter. Rus was seriously weakened by problems of succession before its destruction was ensured by the arrival of the Mongols in the first half of the thirteenth century.

http://www.newrepublic.com/

 

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  • Wake Up, Europe by Soros
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    The following article will appear in The New York Review’s November 20 issue. Europe is facing a challenge from Russia to its very existence. Neither the European leaders nor their citizens are fully aware of this challenge or know how best to deal with it. I attribute this mainly to…
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  • Last Chance for Ukraine ?
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    Putin’s preferred outcome in Ukraine is to engineer a financial and political collapse that destabilizes the country, and for which he can disclaim responsibility, rather than a military victory that leaves him in possession of – and responsible for – part of Ukraine. The financial collapse of which Soros had been…
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  • Germany: Putin Accepts Merkel Contact Group Idea
    64
    The German government says Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted a proposal by Chancellor Angela Merkel for a fact-finding mission and a "contact group" on Ukraine that could be led by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Government spokesman Georg Streiter said the proposal came in a telephone conversation…
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  • Plummeting ruble and the disarray in that country’s markets pose real threats to the global economy
    63
    5 REASONS FOR INVESTORS TO CARE ABOUT RUSSIA’S MARKET TURMOIL It might be tempting to think in realpolitik terms about Russia’s financial woes right now — the idea that a weakened Russia has less weight to throw around in conflicts such as the Ukraine and Syria. But the reality is…
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  • #Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens
    56
    A Russian occupation of Crimea raises the specter of the Cold War, in which the nuclear stalemate between the United States and the Soviet Union devolved into regional disputes around the world. While military and political frictions made the biggest headlines, the Cold War couldn’t be well understood without using…
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BOE, ECB, Trading, USA

Pound Rises Most in Two Months on Recovery Signs, #IMF Forecasts #GBP

The pound rose the most in two months versus the dollar this week as manufacturing and production data signaled the U.K. recovery is on track, boosting bets the Bank of England will raise interest rate and is going to nudge higher throughout the course of this month

The pound gained 1 percent this week, Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in February from the previous month and manufacturing output climbed 1 percent.

Growth Estimates

The IMF raised its forecasts for U.K. growth, predicting the economy will grow 2.9 percent in 2014.

Sterling gained 4.4 percent in the past six months, The euro climbed 1.9 percent, while the dollar slid 1 percent.Policy makers kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record-low 0.5 percent at a meeting this week.

Annualized inflation slowed to 1.6 percent in March, from 1.7 percent the month before. The unemployment rate is estimated to 7.1 percent in the three months through February. This may prompt policy makers to consider to raise the interest rate.

Officials said in February there would be scope to maintain record-low rates even after the threshold is reached.

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  • Is this the beginning of a crash? @reformedbroker
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    It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is…
    Tags: usa, uk, europe, economy
  • Two-Speed Recovery: US vs. EU
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    The August 2013 gross domestic product report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis drew little attention, but it contained a fairly remarkable piece of data: Inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in the United States hit a new all-time high in the second quarter of 2013, the first time a new…
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  • Kris eller uppgång för världen ?
    71
    För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
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  • World turbulences ahead ? #IMF #Forex #Economy
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    10 years ago, the global economy seemed to be on the mend. Interests rates down to 1%, UK was in its 12th year of uninterrupted growth, China was a part of WTO and everyone firmly believed in self correcting markets. The monetary system crash was unforeseen and a surprise. IMF…
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  • Who loses from punishing Russia?
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    If trade and financial sanctions were imposed on Russia, the cost to the UK might well exceed the cost to Russia. That is presumably why the Foreign Office wrote - in a document carelessly (or deliberately?) displayed yesterday for the lenses of photographers - that "the UK should not support…
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Trading, USA

Is this the beginning of a crash? @reformedbroker

It certainly could be, but the odds do not favor it. Statistically speaking, it is far more likely that a run-of-the-mill correction is now underway and working its way through each sector of the market, to varying degrees of severity. Counter-trend rallies are sharp and short (think Wednesday), which is fairly characteristic of a defined downtrend. The 200-day moving average is rising up just beneath us and it may offer some solid support, just as it had in December of 2012.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/

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    Tags: average, fairly, usa, uk, europe, economy
  • Kris eller uppgång för världen ?
    86
    För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig. Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd…
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  • Who loses from punishing Russia?
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    Tags: uk, support, usa, economy
  • Pound Rises Most in Two Months on Recovery Signs, #IMF Forecasts #GBP
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  • World turbulences ahead ? #IMF #Forex #Economy
    73
    10 years ago, the global economy seemed to be on the mend. Interests rates down to 1%, UK was in its 12th year of uninterrupted growth, China was a part of WTO and everyone firmly believed in self correcting markets. The monetary system crash was unforeseen and a surprise. IMF…
    Tags: crash, uk, economy, rising, market, usa, europe
Europe

Greece back to bond market #greece

Europe’s leaders argue that only deep budget cuts will revive the economy and inspire the necessary confidence among investors.

The deal represents a major milestone for Greece, which was effectively shut out of the markets in 2010 when the debt crisis left it dependent on international bailouts to stay afloat.The bond sale reflects increased optimism that Greece and other wobbly euro zone countries have turned a corner. In recent months, borrowing costs dropped significantly for Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, as the investors deemed them less risky.

Unemployment in Greece rising at 27 percent. The bonds of both Portugal and Ireland have been in strong demand since those countries returned to the markets earlier

As a result, borrowing costs among the most troubled euro zone economies have been falling fast.fears are gone. The economy is stabilizing, with the International Monetary Fund recently raising its forecast for growth this year, to 0.6 percent. Greece has met a number of fiscal targets, and the government recently announced a primary surplus — a surplus before debt payments — of about €2.5 billion.

But Greece still has numerous economic hurdles to overcome, including a mountain of debt that will take decades to repay. Economists said Greece would need annual economic growth of nearly 5 percent over the next decade to make progress in paying off what it owes creditors. Greece also needs an export-driven recovery.

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  • MARIO DRAGHI :: Stability and Prosperity in Monetary Union
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    Source : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ecb-eurozone-economic-union-by-mario-draghi-2015-1 There is a common misconception that the euro area is a monetary union without a political union. But this reflects a deep misunderstanding of what monetary union means. Monetary union is possible only because of the substantial integration already achieved among European Union countries – and sharing a…
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  • No reason to again give #France more time to cut deficit - Rehn
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    There is no reason to further extend a European Union deadline for France to cut its budget deficit, the EU's top economic official said on Saturday, adding policy-makers should have learnt the lessons of the debt crisis and stuck to agreed rules. In June last year Paris got two more…
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  • Greek finance minister says euro will collapse if Greece exits
    75
      Feb 8 (Reuters) - If Greece is forced out of the euro zone, other countries will inevitably follow and the currency bloc will collapse, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said on Sunday. Greece's new leftist government is trying to re-negotiate its debt repayments and has begun to roll back…
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  • German bond yields on course for biggest weekly rise in a decade
    74
      German government bond yields jumped on Thursday as a rout in euro zone markets worsened, putting them on course for their biggest weekly rise in over a decade. Yields on 10-year German bonds -- the bloc's benchmark -- rose as much as 20 basis points to hit 0.799 percent,…
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Trading, trend

Kris eller uppgång för världen ?

För 10 år sedan verkade den globala ekonomin att vara på bättringsvägen.  Räntorna gick ner till 1 %, Storbritannien var i sitt 12:e år av oavbruten tillväxt, Kina var en del av WTO och alla trodde på att marknaderna själva kunde korrigera sig.

Den monetära systemkrasch som kom var oförutsedd och en total överraskning. IMF erkände att det hade gjort sig skyldiga till grupptänkande och tonade ner tecken på problem.

Ser man tillbaka och jämför, är dock 2014 inte så annorlunda jämfört med 2004. Den globala ekonomin är aktiv igen, med stor tillgång på billigt kapital.

En del optimister tror att perioden med låg inflation och fortsatt expansion har återvänt efter ett uppehåll som orsakats av kraschen. Lågkonjunkturer är sällsynta och länder återgår så småningom till en trendmässig tillväxt. Detta kan antingen vara början på en ny lång global uppgång, eller i ett annat fall en del av grupptänkande.

Kanske har IMF ännu en gång valt att ignorera de tecken som kan anas i 2014 som återigen kan leda till turbulens:

1. Den globala ekonomin är beroende av exceptionellt låga räntor. Räntorna är lägre i varje efterföljande cykel och räntorna är nu knappt över noll.

2. Obligationsmarknaden kan krascha eftersom världens centralbanker försöker återvända till en mer normal penningpolitik med en måttlig och gradvis höjning av styrräntorna.

3. Alla åberopade att skiffer olja och gas skulle bli vår nästa energikälla. Men 15 stora företag har skrivit av $35 miljarder i investeringar sedan boomen inleddes. Att få olja och gas ur marken har visat sig dyrare och mindre lönsamt än väntat.

4. Risken för resurskonflikter inom de kommande fem till tio åren, om inte det internationella samfundet blir bättre på att hantera den globala uppvärmningen . Extrema väderhändelser – från översvämningar i Storbritannien till torka i Australien – ökar.

5. Ökande ojämlikhet – en liten elit tjänar på den globala tillväxten. Längst ner, och i allt högre grad även för dem i mitten, är det en fråga om lönesänkningar, högre arbetslöshet, skuldsättning, åtstramning och fattigdom. De 85 rikaste människorna i världen äger tillsammans lika mycket som hälften av världens befolkning, men verkar omedveten om risken för omfattande social oro .

Vi får hoppas att dessa tecken inte blir mer reella och att vi ser en uppgång istället för en längre och djupare kris.

Posted on http://hedgenordic.com/

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    Tags: usa, uk, europe, economy
  • Two-Speed Recovery: US vs. EU
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  • Pound Rises Most in Two Months on Recovery Signs, #IMF Forecasts #GBP
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  • World turbulences ahead ? #IMF #Forex #Economy
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