History : 6 September 2011 : Swiss National Bank acts to weaken strong franc

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-14801324

“The Japanese example with yen intervention teaches us that intervention can work in the very short term but changing long-term global currency flows is near impossible – a lesson that the UK learned from George Soros,” Cooper said.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swiss-franc-euro

The long rumored Swiss Franc peg has arrived…

The Swiss National Bank is tired of the surging Franc, and is taking intervention to the next level.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-swiss-national-bank-takes-intervention-to-a-new-level-franc-plunges-2011-9#ixzz3CjnOQLC7

Exploiting the franc peg

We already are seeing some market parallels with the early signs of the great financial crisis of 2007-08: Peaking global inflation rates, topping formations in G10/emerging market equities and tightening bank liquidity. As European banks rush to raise funds and borrow U.S. dollars, their borrowing cost on USD funding has risen to its highest since 2008. But one thing is different — the Swiss franc.

The Swiss currency is no longer rallying the way it did during market distress on Eurozone debt concerns. It all changed when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcement pegging its currency against the euro at the EUR/CHF rate of 1.20, aimed at preventing excessive franc acceleration against the debt-ridden euro. As credit rating agencies rushed to downgrade the sovereign debt of Southern Europe in late 2009, investors rushed their savings out of the single currency and into safe-haven francs. The exodus took the form of cash flight, property sales and bank transfers as “default” became a recurring theme in Greece, Spain, Portugal Greece, Ireland and Italy.

Consequently, the franc soared 35% and 40% against the euro and the USD respectively from 2009 to September 2011.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/01/01/exploiting-the-franc-peg

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We saw this before the Wall St crash, the dot-com bubble and the credit crunch

Are stock markets about to crash? If there’s anyone in the world worth asking, it’s Professor Robert Shiller, although you may not like his answer.

Shiller’s ‘CAPE ratio’ is among the most widely-used measures of whether markets are cheap or expensive, and he got the Nobel Prize for economics last year for his work on market volatility and asset prices.

So it’s chilling when he tells you that his CAPE ratio for US stocks has reached its present level on only three times in the past 130-odd years, and that those previous occasions were 1929, 2000 and 2007, each followed by a crash.

Shiller has been outspoken in recent months about his view that US stocks, bonds and homes are all highly priced right now.

His intervention has proved controversial and prompted fierce debate in America, where US markets have been notching up record highs.

 

In addition to the CAPE ratio (read explanation below), Shiller’s academic work has covered behavioural finance, which looks at the psychological and social reasons behind our money decisions.

He has also analysed house prices and along with Karl Case developed the ‘Case-Shiller Index’ of existing – as opposed to new – home sales in the US. The index is now under other ownership but remains an influential gauge of the strength of the US property market.

This is Money interviewed Professor Robert Shiller at the European Finance Association’s annual meeting and academic conference, held at Lugano in Switzerland last week.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2742297/PROF-ROBERT-SHILLER-INTERVIEW-How-stocks-crash-2014.html#ixzz3CipwaulR

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