History : 6 September 2011 : Swiss National Bank acts to weaken strong franc

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro, saying the current value of the franc is a threat to the economy.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-14801324

“The Japanese example with yen intervention teaches us that intervention can work in the very short term but changing long-term global currency flows is near impossible – a lesson that the UK learned from George Soros,” Cooper said.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/sep/06/switzerland-pegs-swiss-franc-euro

The long rumored Swiss Franc peg has arrived…

The Swiss National Bank is tired of the surging Franc, and is taking intervention to the next level.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wow-swiss-national-bank-takes-intervention-to-a-new-level-franc-plunges-2011-9#ixzz3CjnOQLC7

Exploiting the franc peg

We already are seeing some market parallels with the early signs of the great financial crisis of 2007-08: Peaking global inflation rates, topping formations in G10/emerging market equities and tightening bank liquidity. As European banks rush to raise funds and borrow U.S. dollars, their borrowing cost on USD funding has risen to its highest since 2008. But one thing is different — the Swiss franc.

The Swiss currency is no longer rallying the way it did during market distress on Eurozone debt concerns. It all changed when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announcement pegging its currency against the euro at the EUR/CHF rate of 1.20, aimed at preventing excessive franc acceleration against the debt-ridden euro. As credit rating agencies rushed to downgrade the sovereign debt of Southern Europe in late 2009, investors rushed their savings out of the single currency and into safe-haven francs. The exodus took the form of cash flight, property sales and bank transfers as “default” became a recurring theme in Greece, Spain, Portugal Greece, Ireland and Italy.

Consequently, the franc soared 35% and 40% against the euro and the USD respectively from 2009 to September 2011.

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/01/01/exploiting-the-franc-peg

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We saw this before the Wall St crash, the dot-com bubble and the credit crunch

Are stock markets about to crash? If there’s anyone in the world worth asking, it’s Professor Robert Shiller, although you may not like his answer.

Shiller’s ‘CAPE ratio’ is among the most widely-used measures of whether markets are cheap or expensive, and he got the Nobel Prize for economics last year for his work on market volatility and asset prices.

So it’s chilling when he tells you that his CAPE ratio for US stocks has reached its present level on only three times in the past 130-odd years, and that those previous occasions were 1929, 2000 and 2007, each followed by a crash.

Shiller has been outspoken in recent months about his view that US stocks, bonds and homes are all highly priced right now.

His intervention has proved controversial and prompted fierce debate in America, where US markets have been notching up record highs.

 

In addition to the CAPE ratio (read explanation below), Shiller’s academic work has covered behavioural finance, which looks at the psychological and social reasons behind our money decisions.

He has also analysed house prices and along with Karl Case developed the ‘Case-Shiller Index’ of existing – as opposed to new – home sales in the US. The index is now under other ownership but remains an influential gauge of the strength of the US property market.

This is Money interviewed Professor Robert Shiller at the European Finance Association’s annual meeting and academic conference, held at Lugano in Switzerland last week.

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2742297/PROF-ROBERT-SHILLER-INTERVIEW-How-stocks-crash-2014.html#ixzz3CipwaulR

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Pound in Peril as Opinion Poll Puts Scottish Separatists Ahead

Sterling markets are stirring on the risk of the U.K.’s 307-year-old union splintering, and that spells danger for the pound.

Britain’s currency is likely to weaken when markets resume trading after the weekend, strategists said following a poll that showed the Scottish independence campaign gained a lead for the first time this year with two weeks left before the vote. The pound fell the most in 14 months last week, and gauges of future price swings surged after the previous YouGov Plc showed the “No” campaign’s lead was shrinking.

“The referendum is on a knife edge,” saidNick Stamenkovic, an Edinburgh-based fixed-income strategist at broker RIA Capital Markets Ltd. “Markets have been too complacent but are now waking up to the increased risk of Scotland voting for independence.”

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-07/pound-in-peril-as-opinion-poll-puts-scottish-separatists-ahead.html

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BIG MARKET NEWS WEEK 08 SEP – 13 SEP 2014

China Monday, Sept. 8, 2014 04:00  

CNY Trade Balance (Aug)
Canada Monday, Sept. 8, 2014 14:30  

CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul)
Australia Tuesday, Sept.9, 2014 03:30  

AUD  National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence (Aug)
United Kingdom Tuesday, Sept.9, 2014 10:30  

GBP BOE’s Governor Carney speech
United Kingdom Tuesday, Sept.9, 2014 10:30  

GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jul)
United Kingdom Tuesday, Sept.9, 2014 16:00  

GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Aug)
China Wednesday, Sept.10, 2014 n/a
CNY New Loans (Aug)
United Kingdom Wednesday, Sept.10, 2014 11:00  

GBP Inflation Report Hearings
New Zealand Wednesday, Sept.10, 2014 23:00  

NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
New Zealand Wednesday, Sept.10, 2014 23:00  

NZD Monetary Policy Statement
New Zealand Wednesday, Sept.10, 2014 23:00  

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Australia Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

AUD Employment Change s.a. (Aug)
Australia Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)
Australia Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

AUD Part-time employment (Aug)
Australia Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug)
China Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
China Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Aug)
China Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 03:30  

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
United States Thursday, Sept. 11, 2014 14:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 5)
Japan Friday, Sept. 12, 2014 08:05  

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United States Friday, Sept. 12, 2014  

14:30

 

USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)

 

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“The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time,” explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, “every company that’s missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there’s a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it’s hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high.” Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because “I don’t remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people’s thinking.” Zell also discussed his view on Obama’s Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, “this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn’t such a terrible thing.” Zell’s calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn’s warnings that there is trouble ahead

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The 14 Best Business Books To Read This Fall

As we shake off the summer malaise and head into fall, it’s the perfect time to read some motivational and insightful business books.

And there’s no shortage of good material. Coming out in the next two months are memoirs packed with advice, like Virgin Group founder Richard Branson’s “The Virgin Way: Everything I Know About Leadership;” post-recession financial analysis, like Martin Wolf’s “The Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned — and Have Still to Learn — from the Financial Crisis;” and useful professional guides, like Steven Pinker’s “The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person’s Guide to Writing in the 21st Century.”

We’ve gathered some of the fall’s most interesting and valuable books to add to your reading list. Some are available now and others are available for pre-order.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/best-business-books-to-read-fall-2014-2014-8?op=1#ixzz3CWANVe6r

 

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21 of Bill Clinton’s Favorite Books

I’m always curious to see what other people are reading. It’s one of the ways I figure out what to read next. This list, from 1993, of Bill Clinton’s 21 favorite books is worth a look. Certainly not what I expected.

I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings, Maya Angelou
Of this book, James Baldwin said: “I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings liberates the reader into life simply because Maya Angelou confronts her own life with such a moving wonder, such a luminous dignity.”

Meditations, Marcus Aurelius
A book from the Stoic reading list. Aurelius has been relevant for over 1800 years, and I bet he’ll still be relevant in another 1800.

The Denial of Death, Ernest Becker
Examining the meaning of human existence, this book won the Pulitzer prize in 1974. “In bold contrast to the predominant Freudian school of thought, Becker tackles the problem of the vital lie — man’s refusal to acknowledge his own mortality. In doing so, he sheds new light on the nature of humanity and issues a call to life and its living that still resonates more than twenty years after its writing.”

Parting the Waters: America in the King Years 1954-1963, Taylor Branch
The story of the American civil rights movement.

Living History, Hillary Rodham Clinton
He’s not biased at all, nope.

Lincoln, David Herbert Donald
What’s a President without a favorite Lincoln book. You could do a lot worse than this portrait of Abraham Lincoln’s life by Pulitzer Prize–winning author David Herbert Donald.

The Four Quartets, T.S. Eliot
The “culminating achievement” by a man considered to be one of the greatest poets of the twentieth century.

Invisible Man, Ralph Ellison
A book about race in America, to be sure, but more than that it’s a book about the “human race stumbling down the path to identity, challenged and successful to varying degrees.” The world, in all of its complexities is a tricky place, and few realize this more than the invisible man, who leaves us with these words: “And it is this which frightens me: Who knows but that, on the lower frequencies, I speak for you?”

The Way of the World: From the Dawn of Civilizations to the Eve of the Twenty-First Century, David Fromkin
Gregory McNamee summed it up best: “Historians and philosophers of history have long debated whether the human story is one of constant improvement and progress, or whether history is instead a wheel that leads us again and again to the same place–the same choices, the same errors. … David Fromkin is an unabashed partisan of the first school. In his view, the logic of history leads to “the only civilization still surviving, the scientific one of the modern world,” the civilization of capitalism and technology.”

One Hundred Years of Solitude, Gabriel Garcia Marquez
With One Hundred Years of Solitude Gabriel García Márquez unleashed Latin American literature to a world-wide audience.

The Cure at Troy: A Version of Sophocles’ Philoctetes, Seamus Heaney
“Seamus Heaney’s version of Sophocles’ Philoctetes. Written in the fifth century BC, this play concerns the predicament of the outcast hero, Philoctetes, whom the Greeks marooned on the island of Lemnos and forgot about until the closing stages of the Siege of Troy. Abandoned because of a wounded foot, Philoctetes nevertheless possesses an invincible bow without which the Greeks cannot win the Trojan War. They are forced to return to Lemnos and seek out Philoctetes’ support in a drama that explores the conflict between personal integrity and political expediency.”

King Leopold’s Ghost: A Story of Greed, Terror and Heroism in Colonial Africa, Adam Hochschild
“Hochschild’s superb, engrossing chronicle focuses on one of the great, horrifying and nearly forgotten crimes of the century: greedy Belgian King Leopold II’s rape of the Congo, the vast colony he seized as his private fiefdom in 1885,” wrote Publisher’s Weekly.

The Imitation of Christ, Thomas à Kempis
“This classic has drawn thousands of readers down the ages, including Henry VIII’s chancellor Thomas More, John Wesley, Irish patriot Daniel O’Connell and St Ignatius of Loyola, who reputedly would offer the book as a gift to acquaintances.” — Kirkus

Homage to Catalonia, George Orwell
Orwell went to Spain in 1936 to report on the Civil War and instead joined the fight against the Fascists. This book describes the war as witnessed by Orwell.

The Evolution of Civilizations: An Introduction to Historical Analysis, Carroll Quigley
“A comprehensive and perceptive look at the factors behind the rise and fall of civilizations.”

Moral Man and Immoral Society: A Study in Ethics and Politics, Reinhold Niebuhr
A continually relevant study in ethics and politics, the book was Niebuhr’s break from “progressive religion and politics toward a more deeply tragic view of human nature and history.”

The Confessions of Nat Turner, William Styron
“Magnificent…It is one of those rare books that show us our American past, our present – ourselves – is a dazzling shaft of light…A triumph” — New York Times

Politics as a Vocation, Max Weber
A book that clearly resonated with Clinton and one he could likely add more than a few chapters to.

You Can’t Go Home Again, Thomas Wolfe
A portrait of America and Europe from the Great Depression to the years leading up to WWII through the story of a young writer trying to make his mark on the world.

Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, Robert Wright
This is the second time this book comes recommended. In my interview with Samuel Arbesman, he called this book “a wonderful exploration of how the world has become more complicated and better over time, improving each of our lives.”

The Collected Poems of W.B. Yeats, William Butler Yeats
All of the poems authorized by Yeats for inclusion in his standard canon.

source : http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/08/bill-clinton-favorite-books/

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Niklas Zennström: Why Undervaluation Is the Bigger Problem

Whenever the tech bubble question comes up, as it does with regularity, it sparks a debate about the definition of a bubble, or what qualifies as overvaluation. When I hear this debate, I focus less on the word “bubble” and more on the word “we.” Are we talking about the full sweep of the global technology industry, or about an important but highly specific subsection in Silicon Valley?

This is in part because of my own natural bias. As a Swede who co-founded Skype and is an investor at Atomico helping companies outside Silicon Valley to scale, I have always felt that more attention should be paid to entrepreneurs from places like Stockholm, Shanghai and São Paolo who are taking on and disrupting huge global industries.

But leaving my personal feelings aside, it’s also a serious point that has ramifications across the world for entrepreneurs, investors and governments alike. In contrast to the debate about overvaluation in Silicon Valley, until the past few years the problem elsewhere has been precisely the opposite — undervaluation.

http://blogs.wsj.com/accelerators/2014/09/04/niklas-zennstrom-why-undervaluation-is-the-bigger-problem/

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List of the thinkers, doers and dreamers who really matter in an age of gridlock and dysfunction

 

 

THE POLITICO 50

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